More Sun

Still an incredibly stable pattern for tomorrow, then changes coming for the weekend. 
     The BIG picture shows a longwave ridge sitting overhead that weakens into Saturday, allowing 1 cold front to slip through Sunday morning.  Then a new ridge develops next week just to our north & west, while the next shortwave trough slips south and forms a cutoff low over California.  Sound familiar?  Whether it has anything to do with our developing El Nino, it IS a similar evolution of events that we would expect in an El Nino Winter.  It’s a perfect pattern for dry weather over us when a low goes that far south.  Northerly or northeast surface flow is the result as we head towards the cool season in this setup.  This time of year it should bring the sunshine right back overhead again starting Monday.
I’m working on some more graphics tonight, so I’ll put them online as I did with the snow graphics last night so you folks can argue over them…I assume you have all figured out that they are just thumbnails too, just click for the full-size image…MarkWinter_lows

123 Responses to More Sun

  1. Justin says:

    Hey Sean, nice pics. Almost makes the weather out there look enjoyable, j/k. Kentucky had some pretty bad flooding with last weekend’s storm, but it looks liek your area pretty much got the shaft.
    And yeah, that pesky 264hr GFS. Literally two runs ago it gave us a severe thunderstorm outbreak….

  2. Sean Mott says:

    Here’s the lightning pictures that I caught on 9/27/2006, this storm went severe shortly after passing through. It was dropping dime size hail and heavy rain.
    http://smott1.photosite.com/Album2/092706-Lighting.html
    http://smott1.photosite.com/Album2/092706-Lighting2.html
    (Interesting cloud to cloud strike, one thing that is hard to show is really how close it was to my location).
    http://smott1.photosite.com/Album2/092706-Lighting3.html

    (This was after the storm has passed by, you can see the build up on the back side of the storm)
    Also here’s is a CB could that popped up in the evening was well off to my NE. This was from a few weeks ago (http://smott1.photosite.com/Album2/100_0895.html)
    I was taking a look at the 12Z GFS model this evening, I noticed starting at 264HR(I know it’s way out there, but hey can’t I dream) that a storm drops down from canada packing with what could be the coldest air of the season for the midwest. By 384HR has the thickness down to 526 (I do expect that to moderate, but looking good for sure) will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    Hope everyone has a good weekend..

  3. Derek Hodges says:

    heh heh maybe I will run into you. I ususally am waiting in the church parking lot across from the school between 1:50-2:00pm, or at least part of that if you’re in the neighborhood. lol

  4. I am right next to Reynolds (1/4 mile down the road.) Live right off Hogan.

  5. Andrew says:

    hmmm weird…i still can’t access the KATU website.

  6. Andrew says:

    I should hit 84ish today i think.

  7. Jesse says:

    Looks like the cooler air is beginning to filter in today, only 78 at PDX right now with west winds picking up, compared to 82 at this time yesterday. Might just dodge 80 today making yesterday likely our last 80+ day of 2006. Looking at the latest models we may only be in the low 60s Monday and Tuesday next week even with partly sunny skies, with widespread lows in the thirties. That crisp weather we’ve all been waiting for will be here soon!

  8. Andrew says:

    man, i am really starting to hate this heat. It makes living in the dorms horrible. Brick buildings with no air conditioning and temperatures in the 80’s sucks.

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    I have been working on my freeze data for each winter. I don’t know if there is an easy way to find this stuff but what i am doing is very time consuming, but interesting. You will be very surprised at what it shows, no cheating everybody, wait for me to finish lol

  10. Ryan says:

    I had some light fog over at my house in the Couve. Most the fog in my neighborhood had lifted by day break. But the more notorious fog hot spots had fairly thick fog.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    It was pretty awesome to see the fog, visibilities of 1/8mile or so but by the time I got to my school there was none so that wasn’t cool but at least I saw some. Tomorrow looks like another cloudy morning so thats nice to see as well. I won’t be posting much this evening because I will be at homecoming, go Reynolds! lol

  12. Andrew says:

    I wish i was waking up to fog here 😦 . Looks like it should reach the upper 80’s here again today. I can’t wait until the cool off next week.

  13. Sarah N. says:

    It was nice to wake up to some nice, dense fog in the metro area. Quite refreshing!

  14. Jesse says:

    Looks like another trough will begin effecting us next weekend after the cutoff low to our south gets almost reabsorbed into the poloar jet. Thats kind of interesting to see. I’m seeing less split flow in the extended too, with more sturdy troughs heading our way

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    PNA took a massive dive today, down to about 0 and should continue to fall. As far as my top 5 winters, I would have to think about that one. I think I counted 32 freezes at PDX last year so thats a fair amount actually.

  16. Dmitri K says:

    Yeah, it was all right. I still contend that 1983 was really an “east of the divide” cold wave. Like 1899, and many others.
    Good night.

  17. Justin says:

    Yeah, time for bed. I’ve been on the computer way too long tonight anyways, so sleeping always seems like a good alternative.

  18. Justin says:

    Yeah, I’ve scrolled through and since 1948 I’d say:
    Janaury 1950
    November 1955
    January 1957
    December 1964
    December 1968
    January 1979
    November 1985
    February 1989
    Always stand out no matter where. December 1983, though I know you don’t think so, was also quite amazing east of the Cascades.
    And who knows, in 74 years living to 100 may not be so hard. I’ll be 98.8 on January 9, 2080, so…..

  19. Dmitri K says:

    I guess I should go to bed now. There are plenty more cold waves that I could discuss in great detail, but I guess I need to sleep too LOL.

  20. Dmitri K says:

    1968 just blows my lid off. That -42 in Moscow is something else. And really there are literally dozens of stations in eastern Washington that not only set both the all-time record low and all-time record low max, but did so by many degrees. All you have to do is scroll through some records there on the WRCC site (which I’m sure you have), and 1968 almost always jumps out.
    And no, I don’t want to wait frickin 74 years for a snowstorm LOL.

  21. Justin says:

    Yep, December 1919 I probably overlooked a bit with the original list. -14 in Corvallis and -26 in McMinnville are hands down probably the coldest ever known for the Willamette Valley.
    In other news, 1968 was quite amazingly insane east of the Cascades. -42 in Moscow, Idaho, amazing….
    Oh, and for my list of top snowstorms ever for the NW:
    1. January 9, 1880
    2. January 9, 1980
    Something tells me that something big will go down for sure on January 9, 2080.

  22. Dmitri K says:

    Ah, December 1919. Hands down the biggest cold wave to ever affect the Willamette Valley. It was also hands down the biggest cold wave to ever affect the Columbia Basin. The Dalles hit -30, which is far lower than their modern day record of -21 in 1950. Ellensburg hit -31, also an all-time record. Lewiston, ID fell to an all-time record -23 and I think Yakima was also -23 or -24. If I remember correctly they also hit -23 or -24 in Jan. 1909, so it was a close call on the all-time record, but either way it was edged out by 1950 with -25 (a rare case of 1950 actually dominating previous cold waves). Ironically away from the lower Columbia basin it wasn’t that impressive. Spokane only fell to -17, which is cold but nowhere near all-time territory.

  23. Justin says:

    Don’t know as much about December 1879 other than the 3 at downtown (4th coldest all time I believe for downtown). Not too many other stations were officially recording then.
    BTW, how was December 1919 east of the Cascades?

  24. Dmitri K says:

    BTW I have a feeling December 1879 should also be in the top 5 but there isn’t enough data to back it up. We do know that downtown Porltand hit 3 degrees. I also know that Miles City, MT hit -52, which is second only to the amazing -65 in January 1888. They’ve never hit -50 again since. Likewise, Winnipeg, Manitoba hit -54 in Dec. 1879, much lower than their modern day all-time record of -48.

  25. Justin says:

    Yeah, I can get up a little later tomorrow, don’t need to go in until about 8:30. And its worth talking about, arctic cold waves are a great subject.
    Of course then there’s also 1899, which was a bit underachieving IMHO here in the NW.

  26. Dmitri K says:

    Hey its my favorite subject, Arctic cold waves.

  27. Andrew says:

    You guys are talking late tonight lol.

  28. Dmitri K says:

    January 1972 was actually huge in central Alberta with some all time record lows in there, including -55 in Edmonton and -51 in Red Deer. But yeah, not really making the list here in the Northwest. I’d also include December 1924, but then again I really wouldn’t be able to rank that versus 1957 or other similar cold waves (1930) without just guesstimating.

  29. Justin says:

    January 1972 was for the Puget Sound region btw, -7 in Olympia, although that was a bit of a fluke seeing as it wasn’t that great of an airmass to begin with.

  30. Justin says:

    Yeah, it differs greatly from region to region, which is why you need to take EVERYWHERE into account, even the mountains.
    For the Willamette Valley you have December 1972, which wasn’t that impressive in the Puget Sound region or anywhere else really, so you replace it with late January 1972 which wasn’t that impressive anywhere else either.
    Overall January 1909 and January 1957 weren’t record shattering in any one place, but across the board were probably two of the biggest and longest in duration, so they also deserve to be listed IMO.

  31. Dmitri K says:

    BTW for Washington as a whole, 1968 was tops IMO. Data for 1888 is too sparse to really make a case for #1 considering how amazing 1968 was, but its #2 at least.

  32. Justin says:

    November 1985 also deserves credit, though it wasn’t quite winter. -21 in Spokane on November 23 is not easy to do.

  33. Dmitri K says:

    Its a very difficult list in general. For western Washington, I’d definitely put 1893 and 1950. For oregon only I’d have 1972 for sure, and probably 1989 and 1990 as well especially for coastal sections.

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