I felt like I left the kids out in the cold last night when I hopped on the computer this morning and realized in all the high pressure/sunshine excitement I forgot to blog. I figure that’s alright though since you seem to talk amongst yourselves just fine without me.
A VERY persistent pattern over us. Ridge of high pressure sits overhead through Friday, then gets beaten down by a pretty good shortwave trough that eventually moves through the Northwest Sunday. Tough call on rain for Sunday. Most likely a few sprinkles or a shower here & there.
The ridge may pop back up again after that, so I’ve "sunnied" up the forecast for next Monday-Wednesday. Of course with 850mb temps around +5 to +9 instead of +17 (today), it’s going to be quite a bit cooler as we head into the first week of October.
By the way, I’m working on some graphics tonight for the annual WHAT WILL THE WINTER BE LIKE? meeting that the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society sponsors each Fall. This year it’s going to be on October 20th, a Friday, 10am-Noon at OMSI’s auditorium. I highly recommend you try to get there because it’s a real-life version of the constant winter discussion that takes place on this blog. 4 or 5 professionals will give their prognostication for the winter. I don’t forecast for the winter, but start the presentation with a look back at the past year (and last winter). The event is free and open to the public.
Tonight I’m working on that depressing snow chart that shows yearly snow at PDX for the last 130 years. Wow…time to move to Spokane or Missoula if you want to see snow apparently.
A couple of notes on the snow charts:
In December 1995 when the NWS installed the ASOS unit, snow observations stopped, then restarted a few years later. Observations are now taken at the Airport AND Portland Forecast Office, about 4 miles ESE on 122nd Ave near Sandy Blvd. I’ve kept track of both over the years, but sometimes measurements were incorrect or incomplete, especially in the late 1990’s. One other note; the NWS includes snow pellets, hail, & ice pellets (sleet) in the totals. So some trace amounts may just be hail, but not snow…Mark