An Early Post

I figure now is a good time to post (3:30pm) because…there is no weather to talk about beyond sunny skies and warm temps.

It’s a rare set of weather maps when you can’t find much change in the 48 hour period.  Basically a broad thermal trough extends from near the Coast to the Cascades through Wednesday.  The only change is a slight increase in the offshore flow tomorrow and more on Wednesday.  This should keep us in the mid 80’s with a peak temperature-wise on Wednesday this week.  I’m not sure why the NWS keeps lowering forecast highs for midweek.  They have 81 for Wednesday, which goes the opposite direction of my forecast.  We’ll see…  Then a slow cooling trend for Thursday-Friday.  I doubt we’ll see 80 degree temps return to the Coast by the way since the thermal trough never moves back that far west. 

As for the weekend, it appears that the ridge weakens and backs offshore slightly once again.  ECMWF doesn’t seem to give us rain, but GFS (12z & 18z) does.  I’m keeping the forecast partly cloudy with back to normal temps on Sunday-Monday.  Of course if later runs of GFS continue to show showers I’ll throw them into the forecast.

Okay, now for the rules on this Blog…it’s gone very well for the last 10 months since we started posting.  It’s rare that a TV station can have open discussion with no problems on a website.  That’s a credit to you who participate and keep discussion civil.  In fact I can only think of maybe 3-4 times in those 10 months where I had to ban a poster.  This weekend was one of those times.  So what get’s you banned? 

1.  Copying other posters or impersonating other posters (using their name).  It wastes my time tracking down who is doing it, so I have no tolerance for it.

2.  Threats of violence, mention of drug use etc…

3.  Rude/obnoxious language, even if it isn’t profane.

4.  Talking/posting bad words about someone here at KPTV (send me a nasty note instead of posting one for everyone to see!)

How do we ban you?  It’s very easy for me to check the IP address (the place the message was sent from).  Even if the name/email is the same, the IP will be different.  We just block any message sent from that address.  This takes care of the problem everytime.  Send me a message at mark.nelsen@kptv.com if you have a problem with this or you think someone was wrongly banned…Mark

132 Responses to An Early Post

  1. Jesse says:

    I’ve been noticing on the latest model runs that next weeks low eventually ends up in central California, giving us an El Nino like High over Low pattern. I guess we’ll see.

  2. Jesse says:

    Hey, I’m back! Thanks Mark

  3. Jesse says:

    Can I leave comments now?

  4. vernonia1 says:

    Just stopping by to say hi from our motorcycle tour of N. California. We are on Hwy 49 E of Stockton & it is too hot to ride today. Glad you all are having “fun in the sun”. We will be headed North on Sat so that might bring rain for you???? LOL
    Nice of Mark to say things are going well here.
    Will be glad to be back to even somewhat cooler weather soon!!
    Cherie

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    A few more sunny dry days to wither through and then we finally cool off. Models have not been very consistent with any real rain but certainly a cool down.

  6. Andrew says:

    UGH, this heat is starting to annoy me. Mid 80’s outside with no air conditioning in the dorms equals uncomfortable conditions.

  7. Dmitri K says:

    Anyways I’m out too, good night.

  8. Dmitri K says:

    Yep, drove through Sac around January 4th. The waters had already fallen though and there was just a lot of standing water, flooded fields, etc. left. And the stench of course.
    That was good timing on your part going to Cali in their coldest weather the last 15 years. So much for the warm south LOL

  9. Justin says:

    So were you in Sacramento in 1997? Sounds like a vivid memory.
    The funny thing was though that my trip to Sacramento was rescheduled for Christmas 1998, and that actually happened. We were supposed to fly out of PDX on December 23, but the snowband was closing in and the runway was pretty icy so the flight was delayed and I spent an extra night up here and flew out on the afternoon of December 24, 1998 a few hours after the snow ended. Driving down I-80 though up from Oakland was crazy, this was just after one of their biggest freeze’s ever and it was a bit of a forgeign sight looking out at the big irrigation fields that were all covered up.
    Had I made the 1996 Christmas trip then I could have been down there for arguably two of their biggest weather events ever.

  10. Dmitri K says:

    Good night Derek.

  11. Dmitri K says:

    Yeah that would have been bad news Justin. If you recall an overpass on I-5 washed out and killed some drivers, we had to detour through flooded farmlands for 3 hours on the way back around that area. This was just south of Sacramento on January 3rd or 4th as we were driving back home. The stench was horrible too as all the sewer lines had overflowed and emptied into the waters, which were covering all the fields around us and lapping up to the road.

  12. Justin says:

    Yeah, me too here in a few. Good night.

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    I’m going to bed, but it feels good to be discussing this stuff again 🙂

  14. Justin says:

    Dmitri, the funny thing is I was supposed to go down to my relatives in Sacramento and then travel on to Yosemite for Christmas and New Year’s. We called it off about 3 days before when my uncle got sick, but a few relatives from up here went down to Sacramento during that exact week. I don’t think many realized how close Sacramento actually came to being completely flooded, the levees were only inches away from being topped.

  15. Justin says:

    From the mid 90’s, Dmitri’s right about it being either December 98 or February 1996. Do you remember if there was snow on the ground?

  16. Dmitri K says:

    Good call Justin, forgot about the Reno flood. That was also their worst since 1862, although the latter was more significant. Its funny I was vacationing in Las Vegas at the time, I guess we made a good call to go there and not Reno.

  17. Dmitri K says:

    Must have been a great memory though. Its funny my memory is just filled with snow scenes from childhood growing up in the sub-arctic. I even have September snow memories!

  18. Justin says:

    Ahh, the memories.
    December 29, 1996

    A fantastic storm up here, however it was sad to see the pattern cause so much death and destruction in California, downtown Reno also flooded, the Truckee easily topped its previous record from February 1986. A classic example of a Pineapple Express with an extreme arctic airmass on the other end.

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Must of been 96 then. That sounds about right. Although I am not entirely sure why I did it because although it was at least 4inches thick their were cracks in it haha

  20. Dmitri K says:

    Derek the only two possibilities are either Jan/Feb 1996 or Dec. 1998.

  21. Derek Hodges says:

    Which one of those cold spells back in those years would have been really cold for a while. I recall going to glendoveer golf course and walking across the frozen lakes. It was pretty cool. I still say if we ever have anything really big to track we all meet up to do it somewhere lol.

  22. Dmitri K says:

    That was a hell of a pattern in late December 1996/early January 1997. Ice and snow here, then heavy rains, record warmth and flooding. Lower Oregon City flooded for the second time in 10 months – the only times this has happened since 1964. Greatest snowstorm in history in Victoria, BC, their “snowstorm of the century.” Major snowstorm in Seattle. Significant arctic outbreak in the northern Puget Sound, highs in the 10’s in Bellingham. Feeding the Arctic outbreak was a record breaking cold wave in BC with temps in the -40’s and -50’s just to our north. Prince George, BC, was down into the -40’s for I believe the only time since 1990, and 100 Mile House fell to -54 for an all-time record low on 12/28/1996. And of course the major flooding in California – that was the only time the Yosemite Valley flooded since the great flood of 1862.

  23. Justin says:

    I have some snowfall pics/video of January 1998 Dmitri, mostly of the skiing down my neighborhood hill. A few of my neighbors decided to start their own ski and inner tubing contest down the hill,lasted for about 36 straight hours.

  24. Justin says:

    I remember that the runoff from 1996, just clogged everything up and all the branches that fell in my yard are floating around my yard for about 4 days. Plac was a total mess.

  25. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t remember specifics from 96 but I do remember it. At the garden where my dad planted stuff every single tree either came down or was very badly damaged. Then when the windstorm came in it was blowing massive chunks of ice out of the trees that crashed loudly and violently into my room the entire night…it was scary, especially to a 5 or 6 year old. lol

  26. Dmitri K says:

    That reminds me of January 1998 in Oregon City. No power lines came down, but there were branches popping and snapping for a good 8 hours straight, at least. That was after 24+ hours of continuous freezing rain.
    I have some pictures that I took BTW, nothing crazy but it shows my garage roof with foot long icicles and trees sagging sideways under the ice. Maybe I’ll get them digitized and upload them somewhere one day.

  27. Justin says:

    Yeah, December 1996 was the back to back ice storms.
    December 26, 1996 we had a strong storm come in from the west, gave us a quick east wind that kept us below freezing all day, and many places had close to an inch of ice.
    Two days later a 2nd storm pulled in colder air from the east and from the north. Started out as snow on the night of the 28th, had about 3” here then changed over. This was VERY unusual because it was a tropical storm over us giving us freezing rain, rarely ever happens. Had another 1.25” of ice up here until noon on the 29th, a very nice storm.
    If you recall, late December 1996 gave the Seattle area its biggest snowstorm in 24 years, and gave California the great New Year’s Flood of 1997. Also Ashland flooded pretty badly. The icestorms were immediately followed by 2 more big Pacific storms that gave me heavy rain and 40mph winds, a lot of trees were down.

  28. Derek Hodges says:

    I am a boundary location for snow/ice events dealing with the gorge, but I find if it really is anything at all then I get something. Like during december after the snow I did get ice the next morning while most of the metro did not.

  29. Droppin says:

    I remember that ice storm in 1996 very well. Every tree in our yard and cul-de-sac were either heavily damaged or just reduced to nothing. Our Elm tree became a small torch as the power lines crossed each other from sagging so bad from the weight of the ice. Was kind of fun hearing the large booms when the lines touched each other LOL shook our windows. Oh yeah we had the fire department out the whole 9yards. Then the large maple in our backyard cracked in half causing it to take the power line down in the backyard. Needless to say we were without power for 6 days and had to stay at a friends place.

  30. Derek Hodges says:

    As to what you said earlier its true this el nino if you can call it that even is really a discrace to el ninos everywhere lol. But thats good… 🙂

  31. Dmitri K says:

    I think that’s actually right Derek. PDX reported 64 at 11:00 PM, so you being a couple degrees cooler makes sense.
    57.7 here.

  32. Justin says:

    Continues to fall like a rock, 56.5 right now exactly. I’ll easily make it into the 40’s tonight.
    Though your area is a better snow location than PDX or downtown, I still can recall the numerous snowbands that have set up right over Vancouver northward and given me solid snow while nowhere else has seen more than a dusting. But generally when I’m cold enough your area is cold enough.
    BTW, how does your area normally do with ice events? For me I can recall days like December 29, 1996 when the western part of my county was 38 with rain and I was still 31 with 3” of snow and 1.25” of ice. Normally I stay colder a bit longer and I can get an extra 4-8 hours of frozen precip compared to places 10 or so miles to my west. January 15-16, 2005 is another class example.

  33. Derek Hodges says:

    61.5 haha, NO WAY that is right. Arg, I wish I could move it right now.

  34. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey even if downtown doesn’t get it, if you get it I usually get it too. I am usually 1-2 degrees behind you but not always. Whats your temp now? I will go and check mine.

  35. Justin says:

    Meh, get your gear ready for another winter that refuses to exceed 2” in downtown Portland. I’ll be basking in ridiculous 11” or better territory, Portland will be stuck on the rain/snow line.

  36. Derek Hodges says:

    Justin you know its going to snow big time this winter don’t you. Just admit it, I won’t tell anybody. lol BTW I finally got to work with Rod Hill today, he got back from vacation.

  37. Derek Hodges says:

    Would you agree there is probably some heat influence being only 2inches from my house. haha I will move it tomorrow after school I think.

  38. Justin says:

    Ugh, I love living in a rural area.

  39. Derek Hodges says:

    I still have a crazy 62.2. Since its attached to a rainpipe on my building I am assuming its getting heat influence from the building. No way I am warmer than the airport. I think its time I move it to my winter location and see if that helps.

  40. Justin says:

    Trying not to though, a few flakes wouldn’t shock me though, lol. Derek’s right about the GF finally displaying those wintry colors, good old 18z has us under the 527dm line at 372 hours, with HEAVY PRECIP!!
    Looks like its the first crack induced 16 day GFS snowstorm of the 2006-07 winter season, always a good bet that winter’s approaching.
    To get us in the mood a bit for winter before I decide to rain on the parade again, here’s Seneca’s forcast. The true icebox of Oregon.
    http://www.city-data.com/forecast/w-Seneca-Oregon.html

  41. Justin says:

    Shame on you for making me got outide, j/k lol. Actually kind of chilly out there hough, falling steadily now down to 58. I’m thinking about 48 tonight for my area, NWS says 52.
    As for this trough, you’re correct. Keep in mind its been an encouraging sign thus far just looking at the number of large troughs and lowered height anomalies across the board thus far. Many years we really don’t get any 550dm troughs with NNE/NNW winds before mid October, this upcoming week’s trough will be the 3rd in the past 6 weeks.

  42. Sean Mott says:

    Glad your not holding your breath, Justin.. 😛

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