Boring, but Beautiful

I’m pretty excited about the upcoming weather pattern.  A big ridge of high pressure is developing over the Eastern Pacific this evening.  It strengthens and moves over the West Coast the next 48 hours.  Long range GFS, ECMWF, & Canadian models all show the ridge persisting over or west of us all through next week.    Easterly flow develops by Saturday morning and continues through Sunday.  This should easily pop our afternoon temperatures up about 20 degrees.  Record high temperatures at PDX are in the 90s until midweek, and still over 88 after that, so I don’t think we’ll be breaking any records.  Another reason we won’t get REALLY warm is that the ridge is never really forecast to be directly overhead or just to our east.  That would give us warmer air aloft.  There is also no sign of a marine airmass anytime in the next 7 days, which leaves us with no morning clouds & sunny skies.

Although it’s obviously a very boring pattern for forecasters and fellow weather enthusiasts, it’s great for getting end-of-season activities done (like painting the eaves of my house).  Also, easterly wind should make to the Coast at least 1 and maybe both days this weekend.  If so, 75-85 is a good possibility…Mark

12 Responses to Boring, but Beautiful

  1. Justin says:

    Yep, good night (an eventful evening of probably killing the board’s spirit for winter).

  2. Dmitri K says:

    And on that happy note, good night.

  3. Dmitri K says:

    Yep, preaching to the choir. I’ve gotten used to not expecting anything either, last winter when we went 6+ weeks without a freeze I barely even flinched. Like it was normal.

  4. Justin says:

    I contemplated the chances of something this winter and have now gone back to being a pessimist. Again, it really helps I think. Made the 2003-2004 winter much sweeter seeing as I came into it expecting a repeat of 2002-2003. But the trend over the past decade has been alarming, again I really think there’s now only about a 20% chance every winter of seeing more than 2-4” if you live in Portland. Considering that the 50 year average is 6.5” that’s pretty sad, and I don’t really see it reversing any time soon.

  5. Justin says:

    And another thing, I’m sorry but if you live in the heart of Portland then IMHO you have nothing to hope for.
    Look at the past 8 winters and you’ll see what I mean:
    2005-2006- Maybe 1.5”, a ‘good winter’ by 21st century standards
    2004-05- 0.0”
    2003-04- Maybe 12.0”, 10 miles to your north and south there was 18-24”
    2002-03- 0.0”
    2001-02- Maybe 0.1” in Downtown, 5-10” 10 miles to your north and south
    2000-01- Maybe 0.5”, and that’s being generous. Nothing special
    1999-00- Again, maybe a half inch? 0.5”
    1998-99- Maybe 2.0”, nothing in February and not much in Decemeber
    That’s a grand total of 16.6” over 8 years, had about 16.0” in 8 hours on January 31, 1937.
    That averages out as about 2.0”, but 2003-2004 skews that and other than the one winter, ni the past 8 Portland hasn’t seen anything else over 2.0” So what’s their to get excited about especially if you live in an urban heat island. Seems like your chances of seeing more than 2-4” are slim-none.

  6. Dmitri K says:

    Yeah I know what you mean Justin. Its kinda funny though we all expected something good to happen this winter not too long ago.

  7. Paul says:

    I’ve really enjoyed the last week. It’s been very comfortable and I’ve saved ALOT of money not having to run the water sprinklers, A/C nor heater.
    I’m NOT looking forward to the 80+ temps the next week.
    GO AWAY SUMMER YOU’RE NOT WANTED!!

  8. Justin says:

    Well I’ve found it best to come into evetry winter nowadays with extremely low expectations. 2 of the past 4 winters have had nothing I’d call a real snowfall and even last winter pretty much sucked, 4” on the season= crap. I find it best nowadays to just not expect anything, treat every winter like a 57-58 or at best a 74-75 or 05-06, 0-4” of snow at the very most. Nothing to get excited about in other words. That’s how bad things have gotten in the past 7 or 8 years, I’m about ready to give up and move to Spokane.

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    How strong of east winds are we talking here, my gut says about 30, maybe 35mph gusts in Troutdale/Gresham area.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    My guess is he was joking

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    I predict between October 1st and 10th we return to stormy weather as the norm, at least for a little while. As in not just a quick clipper but a week of rainy weather or more. Until then, I guess, enjoy. 🙂

  12. Dmitri K says:

    BTW Justin that was a pretty bleak prediction all of a sudden from the previous blog. No snow at all this season??

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