Back to Dry

Nice little cold front approaching quickly from the NW tonight.  Looks like it’s through the metro area by news time.  It should make for a gripping LIVE RADAR presentation (how can you even consider turning the channel?).

Visible satellite shows a sharp clearing line behind the front and several models I’ve looked at cut the precip off quickly behind.  Our RPM model here at the station shows only brief orographic (near mountains) rain showers tomorrow morning.  So tomorrow will be mostly dry.

Then ridging sets up for Friday through sometime next week.  The ridge is centered slightly offshore, which keeps us from getting a real strong Fall east wind event, but there is some easterly flow Sunday-Monday anyway.  So I bumped temps up into the lower 80’s for then.  ECMWF & GFS show a small shortwave moving by to the north on Tuesday, which may cool us off before the ridge bounces back.  The big picture looks like this: 12 days of warm/sunny weather to start September, then we went into a cool/showery pattern for about 9 days.  Now we go back into warm/dry for the last 3rd of the month.  Seems pretty normal to me!…Mark

107 Responses to Back to Dry

  1. Justin says:

    New blog.

  2. Dmitri K says:

    Late September 2003 was just a ridiculous pattern. We had the 95, and records were absolutely crushed from western OR and WA all the way into Alaska and the Yukon. Roseburg hit 102 in that one, and in Alaska dozens of October record highs fell on the 1st and 2nd as the ridge built northward. Most were shattered by 6-15 degrees (MONTHLY record highs), one I’ll never forget was in Chalkytsik, near Fort Yukon. Their previous October record had been 58, a number that was exceeded by 16 degrees with a reading of 74. Dry Creek set the STATE record high of 76 for the month.
    At the same time, the monstrous ridge dug a huge trough into the central US, giving Williston, ND, a monthly record low of 15 on the 30th. Cleveland, OH had their earliest measurable snowfall ever and several locations in the Ohio valley and Pennsylvania recorded their earliest freezes ever.

  3. Justin says:

    I was getting pretty worried Matt, but that definitely reassured me.
    So let’s start placing bets then for the first snowfall for this season. Winner gets a snowglobe.
    My guess is:
    January 16, 2008
    That’s right, 2006-07 will be a no hitter. Nothing for the entire season.
    (too bad I just made a bet like a week ago guaranteeing snowfall between December 25 and January 10 this winter, oh well)

  4. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah it didn’t go on the air. lol Naw, I’m sure we will use it this year. πŸ˜‰

  5. Mat says:

    I’m still here guys, dont worry.

  6. Justin says:

    Nice, I’m assuming it was just for fun and didn’t go on air, lol….
    BTW, I think you can hold onto the 6” graphic, probably won’t happen again in the next 5 years for Portland knowing our horrid luck.

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    That was a crazy heat wave. Well 81-84 looks about right for me..in terms of thats what I believe, not that I will like it. In reference to what I said earlier when I was practicing graphics I made one that said 6inches of snow tonight and had some east wind arrows and stuff lol.

  8. Justin says:

    Man, sure is quiet tonight. Only 3 posts in the past 5 hours during the high time of the day?
    While it the ridge looks to be strong and far reaching, I don’t see us currently getting to 85 as Mark is forecasting. Wednesday is looking like the warmest day, with a classic early spring/late fall type ridge that usually manages to get us into the 76-83 range. GFS supports 80-82 which seems about correct looking at the forecasted heights, the ridge looks major mostly over to our WNW oer the Pacific, so we should have east or ENE winds. Again, I’m thinking 78-82 for every day next week, getting about a degree warmer every day until the 81-83 for Wednesday followed by a gradual cool down.
    Can’t compare to late September 2003, 95 on September 27. Even the normally arctic Bellingham had an unheard of late season 87 on the same day, blew the records away.

  9. Dmitri K says:

    Wow, no comments on this ridiculous warm spell coming up? I can’t believe the forecast is calling for 6 straight days in the 80’s – at least – with the last two days at 85.

  10. Justin says:

    Hey Sean, ensembles are starting to agree a bit more and the fact that the low was stronger than the NAM had last night is cause for concern tomorrow. Basically just take my thoughts from last night and place them into Friday night instead of tonight. Again, Missouri, particularly the Central part of the state, will really need to watch this. Could be a near repeat of March 12.
    For Saturday my thoughts remain the same on storm initiation/strength playing a huge role, looks like GFS continues to support a more capped atmosphere with no backed winds at the surface, so it will be hard to get much in the way of discrete supercells, not to mention MLCAPE and LCLS probably need to lower some, looks like a warm elevated mixed layer which means cap bust.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    Wow I am definately concerned about this upcoming storm Sean. Looks like a major threat of just about anything. Keep us informed.
    At the studio I started learning about forecast graphics today. I should be able to work them pretty well within a few weeks.

  12. Sean says:

    So Justin, what are your thoughts concerning the severe weather outbreak thats looking pretty likely for this weekend for the MS and OH valley? I’m thinking that I might just get to experience an tornado outbreak, I know still about 24 to 36 hours away but it’s looking pretty violatile atmosphere for sure.

  13. Derek says:

    Its boring! lol I am getting on while Ronda is doing her forecast and I have nothing to do. Hopefully things speed up in the coming days. I may get to learn how to do graphics soon πŸ™‚

  14. luvrydog says:

    LOL, ok, I was wonderin. I knew Sean lived in the midwest but thought everyone else lived right here in NW OR and SW WA. The only reason i like hillsboro is because I have a job here, lol…oh and I like that we usually get the first bursts of snow coming from the NW, so I can always let ya know when something is rain or snow startin out, lol…except I think we’re about -100 feet to sea level!

  15. Sean says:

    I now reside in Lebanon, IN which is about 25 mins NW of Indianapolis.. Been a longtime resident of Oregon, went to school with Droppin’ (which was many moons ago) πŸ˜›

  16. Justin says:

    No wind here in east county luvrydog, yes we’re talking about both the Midwest and Ellensburg. And always remember that as bad as Hillsboro is you have it much better than some on here (Initials are D.K.)
    Just messing with you guys btw.

  17. Andrew says:

    Luvrydog, i now live in Ellensburg, Wa while i am attending school at Central Washignton University.

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