Monday Evening Thoughts

September 18, 2006

A nice mellow evening on the weather deck.  Little system moving east into Idaho and another good burst of rainfall later tonight.  We should hear the pitter-patter of rain in the 3am-6am hours as a line of showers move inland.  More instability behind this arrives midday tomorrow so I think thunder is possible around midday with forecast lifted index near 1.0  This upper-level trough overhead shifts east a bit through Thursday, with one last chunk of energy coming through Thursday morning.

After that we have some disagreement…once again for the weekend of course.  The good news is that 18z/00z GFS along with the ECMWF hold off rain quite a bit longer and have a sharper ridge Friday-most of Sunday.  If so, my high temperature forecasts will be low for Saturday/Sunday, but hey, there’s always tomorrow to revise upward (or maybe in time for the last hit at 11:25!).

It’s nice to turn off the watering and I see my lawn is beginning to show green again with the combo of cooling/rain.  Unfortunately only 1 of my 3 kids’ pumpkins is orange so far, so we could use some more warm weather for that.  Plus I still have eaves on the house to paint and I’d like to get that done before mid-0ctober too. I’m not ready for Fall rains yet!   Enjoy the rain tomorrow…Mark

By the way…it DID hit 73 today, I missed it on the climo report…happened at 5:16pm.  I should be severely beaten by a roll of February 1989 weather maps for that error.