El Nino?

El Nino is back apparently…here is the NOAA special advisory:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm

So what does it mean for this winter in the Northwest?  Each El Nino produces different weather here, but in general we tend to be warmer and drier than normal.  That’s due to the storm track often shifting to the north over the western part of our continent.  Or it will split at times, sending some systems into California.  An enhanced subtropical jet tends to move north too, impacting California with heavy rains.   

Here’s a good link that our state climatologist has for El Nino’s effects on the NW:

http://www.ocs.orst.edu/reports/elnino1.html

As for this weekend, tough call with an annoying little system coming in now tomorrow night and Sunday.  Looks like the GFS was a bit too dry a couple days ago, but the ETA was too wet.  Maybe next week’s forecasting will be a bit simpler.

Now discuss amongst yourselves…Mark

233 Responses to El Nino?

  1. Jesse says:

    Mark just posted a new blog

  2. Justin says:

    Yeah, I’m at about an inch exactly, today bumped me up to there and I had about 0.1” before last week. Good night, I’ll stay up until about midnight to moniter the rain offshore, then I need to sleep.

  3. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah on winter nights I could have it set to go off if the temp drops to a certain level or if we start to get heavier moisture meaning the rain would switch to snow or something. I am going to bed pretty soon but I guess I will report what I get tonight in the morning. And I just realized my real monthly total is 1.30 inches. I forgot my .08 from the first little event.

  4. Justin says:

    That’s pretty cool, I’d imagine it works for snowfall as well assuming the guage collects the melted snowfall.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    With the system you can set alarms for basically anything. So my rain gauge sends in how much its rained and somewhere along the way a rainfall rate is calculated. I can set the station inside to go off when a certain rate is reached. So I decided to go with .20in/hr tonight.

  6. Justin says:

    Rain alarm huh? Interesting, it didn’t come with the weather statio/rain guage did it? How do you connect the alarm up to your room though if the weather station’s outside?

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    I have my rain alarm set for the rate of .20in/hr so I should wake up when things are getting going. Assuming they do.

  8. Justin says:

    Yes, I believe it was 72, right about average. Fairly heavy rain now in Lewis County, more rain off the coast. Perhaps that’ll happen Derek, who knows.

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