Evening Update

September 14, 2006

What a busy weather afternoon.  Numerous thunderstorms with downpours and hail popped up across the region today, mainly west of the Cascades here in Oregon.  1 strong cells moved right across central Clark County, another along the I-205 to Troutdale area, and a 3rd from Wilsonville-Oregon City-Eagle Creek.  With the loss of daytime heating we’re back to "lightning-free" showers for the rest of the night.  Tomorrow should be similar.  Models claim there will be less lifting as the upper-low sinks south, but I’m confident that this cold/moist airmass should be able to fire up a few storms with September sunbreaks.  I notice the record (low) high for tomorrow is 57, so I think it’s unlikely we’ll stay below that.

Then the weekend…hmmm.

I was afraid to look, and I shouldn’t have; the new 00z ETA is even wetter, with 2.32" of precip in the next 84 hours (now-Monday morning).  That’s nuts, but why it continues to generate so much more rain and flatter westerly flow is a mystery to me.  Once again we’ll see what the 00z GFS shows around 9pm when it arrives.  Hopefully it won’t veer towards the wet stuff or else the weekend forecast will need major adjustments.  Fingers are crossed….I have to say that it’s rare models are so different this close to the zero forecast hour…Mark