Refining the Forecast

September 13, 2006

Everything is right on track forecast-wise through the next 48 hours (tomorrow/Friday).  Nice dry cold front passing through tonight and as expected it looks like most precip for most of us in the lowlands will fall with afternoon convective showers tomorrow and Friday.  Upslope areas such as Cascade Foothills and Coast Range will see showers develop overnight though as strong westerly flow is developing behind the cold front.  It doesn’t look like the snow level drops below 5,000′ until tomorrow night.  Maybe flakes down to 4000′ and sticking snow to 4,500′.

Everything is NOT on track beginning Saturday.  New 00z NAM-WRF shows little to no ridging now Saturday-Sunday so a system plows right into us Saturday and lingers Sunday (oops!).  If so, a cloudy and wet, but mild weekend.  Obviously this doesn’t jive with my current partly cloudy and warm forecast so we’ll see what the 00z GFS shows.  It seems to do much better than the NAM-WRF generally.  Major adjustment due at 10pm if it suddenly shifts the flow farther south too…just another "refinement" to the forecast right?  Mark

9:20pm:  00z GFS has the ridging stronger this weekend…hmm, glad this isn’t a snow/no snow forecast.  That would be a REALLY tough one.  I’ll roll the dice and keep it dry Saturday/Sunday