What Cooling Trend?

Several of you wondered where the cooling went today?  Maybe it was just a really bad forecast by Mark Nelsen?  I agree.

So we actually moved up a degree at PDX today…oops.  Not exactly a life-threatening missed forecast, but it never feels good to miss the temperature by 5-6 degrees.

So tonight there is very little marine cloudiness along the coast, in fact less than last night.  That plus today’s forecast experience would lead me to go the same tomorrow temp-wise.  But pressure gradients from North Bend to PDX and North Bend to Spokane are both about double what the were yesterday evening.  So that plus the ridge moving off a bit to the east tomorrow should give us about 5 degrees cooling.  So hey, let’s go for 80…really, I think it’ll happen this time.

Models seem to be pretty in tune with each other for the next 7 days.  Brief trough or open wave Friday night-Saturday, then back to ridging.  I notice GFS at 12z & 18z has no precip (other than piddly stuff Saturday) through the next 10 days.  So summer continues with just a brief cooldown for the weekend…Mark

By the way, we’ve got some interesting video from Mt. St. Helens again tonight.  It’s a 9 week timelapse of the building lava dome.  See you at 10:32pm!

16 Responses to What Cooling Trend?

  1. Kay Bradley says:

    Sorry guys … I’m hoping for another warm week. My tomatoes need another week of 80 degrees to make enough salsa and spaghetti sauce for everyone … I like a good week of freeze & snow in the winter (keeps the bugs & diseases down, increases apple & cherry production). Unfortunately, tomatoes, peppers, etc, do NOT grow in temps over 90 degrees – so all of us gardeners need that extra week of summer. Then, let ‘er rip 🙂

  2. Ryan says:

    Jesse, not a problem I didn’t really percieve it as such. I will gladly yield to the advice of most the folks on here. Up until this blog got going GFS, 12Z, and other like terms where complete Greek to me! Reading the blog and looking at the charts have definitely helped me get a general understanding of everything being said on this blog. At the end of the day I’m another, albeit less informed, weather nut. 🙂

  3. Jesse says:

    By the way, Ryan, I just wanted to apologize if my reply to your first post sounded harsh. I guess the fact that we have been near 85 or above the first six days of september has me irritable, lol. You should check out the latest GFS, the 12Z run still shows a massive trough moving over us late next week, 500mb heights all the way down to 552dm. That is a very cool airmass for mid-September, that would mean snow down to or even slightly below the passes.

  4. Jesse says:

    Yeah, for now as long as it’s below 80 I’m happy. I’m actually starting to think it may stay just shy of 80 today if the northwest breeze keeps blowing. Only 66 here in the ‘Couve as of noon with a NW wind at 8mph

  5. Ryan says:

    I hope that is true Jesse. It does look like I spoke too soon about another heat up as I’m noticing highs closer to 80 as well. As long as it stays at 80 or less I’m good. 🙂

  6. Jesse says:

    Ryan, I seriously doubt it will be mid and upper 80s next week. The ridging next week looks to be somewhat flat, and depite the ridge, onshore flow will be strong. We will probably find it tough to hit 80 most days next week from what I’m seeing, with another trough coming in by thursday or friday. The fall cooldown has begun, it just comes in stages sometimes rather than all at once.

  7. Sean says:

    Hey Justin, nice to see ya back.. It seems that the weather in Oregon is about as exciting as it has been here in NW Indiana.. I think our bouts with Heat and Humidity have passed, been remarkably comfortable the last 2 weeks (which has been nice) with lows in the 50s for the first time in several months. One thing to note, is that with the ULL over the OH valley while Ernesto moved up the coast our weather was going E -> W for about 4 days. I’ve seen it before, but still amazing to watch clouds and storms develop and move from east to west.
    There looks to be a candian high that is going to be moving south, but not far enough to be under the full influence, but will change our winds to a southerly wind which will help bump our numbers into the low 80s. I’ve been doing some investigating and it looks like the first 32deg temp for my area is on average Oct 6th with our first 28deg temp following on average Oct 21st (Yay, no more mowing the lawn!). It’s pretty interesting to see just how quickly our average highs & lows drop in such a short period. I’ve got some additional pictures that I will share when I get a chance to put them up, had some nice cells popup yesterday.
    In looking our the current setup is still ridging in the west and troughing in the east. That has been the pattern throughout most of the summer though, will be interesting to see how much longer the pattern continues on for.
    Take care!

  8. Ryan says:

    I’m echoing what everyone has already said the last week… Why won’t Summer DIE!? I thought this cooling trend might actually be the on that takes us into fall. Then we get some ridging and the mid to upper 80’s return next week. I hope this doesn’t turn into one of those extended indian summers.

  9. Jesse says:

    Has anyone seen what the models are forecasting for late next week now? Huge cold upper level trough over us, even the latest NWS forecast discussions mention it. If this holds together, it could be our first big storm of the fall and even bring some snow down to the passes. I’m sure that will all change in the next run though, to good to be true, lol.

  10. Justin says:

    Thanks Derek, good to be back. I still really can’t give any clear indication of where this winter is going, everything from 1991 to 1979 could be construited as a good analog right now still. I agree about Farmer’s Almanac, one said in their 205-2006 forecast a nationally cold January with evere cold in the East, and what do you know? Warmest January on record for the lower 48. They’re predicting another cold winter this year, which IMHO is not possible for the lower 48 judging by the way things have been trending.
    I haven’t looked at any of the models, but from what I’ve seen in the forecasts they’re saying back to ridging next week with temps again in the 80’s west of the cascades and 90’s east.
    Though its good to see at least some rain in the forecast, another week with 90’s and dry thunderstorms would really be horrendous for the still burning fires. Let’s hope that we don’t make too quick a transition from dry heat and wildfires to typical Northwest fall weather, a quick soaking could lead to Southern California type flooding/mudslides if we get too much rain in the hills.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    This is worth checking out for anybody reading this.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/avn00zsfc.html
    It shows the trough this weekend sticking around for a while with a reasonable amount of rain and then a big soaker coming in toward the end of the forecast period.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Good to see you back Justin. I definately put 0 stock in farmers almanac. If they are “so good” why have they been wrong for several years and even between almanacs there is little agreement. Like I said a while back, if they get it right its an accident.

  13. Justin says:

    Oh, and I bought 3 Farmer’s Alamancs.
    One says ‘Cold & Snowy for the Northwest’, but doesn’ really highlignt any one period.
    One gives us a white Christmas, with snow and cold at the end of December and snow showers at the start5 of February, and one gives us a mild winter until February where it throws snow, freezing rain near river valleys, and record cold into the picture in the middle of February. Disagreement, disagreement, disagreement is basically what I see. Entertaining to read the zodiac stuff though, and the best days of the year to bake a cake and other interesting tidbits.

  14. Justin says:

    Hey, finally am typing this from my own computer. Good to see some troughieness for this weekend, might be the first weekend rain since June 2-4 I believe, and I was in California that weekend.

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    Its all good Mark, it happens to all of us now and again. And believe me, we all know you do way better than any of us would do. As far as that trough goes the 18z weakened it but the 00z restrengthened it a bit. Should be fun to see what happens. I also noticed the 18z beyond 10 days out shows a late fall type pattern with a lot of rain, can’t wait for that kind of stuff to drop in. Probably about a month to a month and a half before it does.

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