What Cooling Trend?

September 6, 2006

Several of you wondered where the cooling went today?  Maybe it was just a really bad forecast by Mark Nelsen?  I agree.

So we actually moved up a degree at PDX today…oops.  Not exactly a life-threatening missed forecast, but it never feels good to miss the temperature by 5-6 degrees.

So tonight there is very little marine cloudiness along the coast, in fact less than last night.  That plus today’s forecast experience would lead me to go the same tomorrow temp-wise.  But pressure gradients from North Bend to PDX and North Bend to Spokane are both about double what the were yesterday evening.  So that plus the ridge moving off a bit to the east tomorrow should give us about 5 degrees cooling.  So hey, let’s go for 80…really, I think it’ll happen this time.

Models seem to be pretty in tune with each other for the next 7 days.  Brief trough or open wave Friday night-Saturday, then back to ridging.  I notice GFS at 12z & 18z has no precip (other than piddly stuff Saturday) through the next 10 days.  So summer continues with just a brief cooldown for the weekend…Mark

By the way, we’ve got some interesting video from Mt. St. Helens again tonight.  It’s a 9 week timelapse of the building lava dome.  See you at 10:32pm!


What Cooling Trend?

September 6, 2006

Several of you wondered where the cooling went today?  Maybe it was just a really bad forecast by Mark Nelsen?  I agree.

So we actually moved up a degree at PDX today…oops.  Not exactly a life-threatening missed forecast, but it never feels good to miss the temperature by 5-6 degrees.

So tonight there is very little marine cloudiness along the coast, in fact less than last night.  That plus today’s forecast experience would lead me to go the same tomorrow temp-wise.  But pressure gradients from North Bend to PDX and North Bend to Spokane are both about double what the were yesterday evening.  So that plus the ridge moving off a bit to the east tomorrow should give us about 5 degrees cooling.  So hey, let’s go for 80…really, I think it’ll happen this time.

Models seem to be pretty in tune with each other for the next 7 days.  Brief trough or open wave Friday night-Saturday, then back to ridging.  I notice GFS at 12z & 18z has no precip (other than piddly stuff Saturday) through the next 10 days.  So summer continues with just a brief cooldown for the weekend…Mark

By the way, we’ve got some interesting video from Mt. St. Helens again tonight.  It’s a 9 week timelapse of the building lava dome.  See you at 10:32pm!