A Bit Nippy

A chill in the air this evening after the MEGA-MARINE PUSH last night.   You know it’s cold when at 5pm on a sunny August afternoon it’s only 66 degrees in The Dalles!  Timberline Lodge at 6000′ in the Cascades dropped from 75 yesterday afternoon to foggy/cloudy/drizzly and 38 at 5pm.  What a change in 24 hours.  So we are obviously at the bottom of the temperature roller-coaster this afternoon.  We head uphill again on Thursday.
I had .12" rainfall at my home (in the perpetual rain forest again), but the next highest I found in the metro area was .10" at Eagle Creek and .04" in Beaverton.  Most spots had nothing.  A repeat is possible tomorrow morning as a secondary trough of low pressure slides through.  Our RPM model here at the station says a few weak showers may pop up over the Coast Range tomorrow afternoon and move out over the Valley.  Sounds good since it was right last time it did that (in June).  Then thats it for moisture as the trough kicks out.
As several of the "regulars" alluded to in the vigorous discussion below, clearing skies tomorrow night with building high pressure but a resident chilly airmass should give us a real taste of Fall temps by Thursday morning.   Then summer comes back big time over the weekend and next week.
Strong offshore flow develops early Friday and continues through Sunday morning.  Easterly wind will make all across the metro area (definitely a Fall pattern there too) during the day Friday and maybe all the way to the Coast.  So we’ll warm up quickly again just like last Friday’s jump from 69 to 85 in one day.
No real obvious or sharp end to the heat & warm weather is in the works next week.  Ridging hangs nearby, so the first week of school looks more like summer.
For you number freaks;  We’ve had 19 days above 90 degrees here in Portland this summer.  The all time record is 23 days back in the hot summer in 1987 (ahh, the first summer of freedom after high school).

26 Responses to A Bit Nippy

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    Any ideas on how I should weigh things in my program? I know east winds keep the temperature up if there isn’t a big temperature difference on the east side but at what point is it cold enough to overpower that effect. Or cloudcover when the east wind is blowing..other things..etc. ANy ideas?

  2. Ryan says:

    I did get damp this morning. I was really surprised to see how damp it was. I’d say less than a .10″ but enought to get everything damp and form a few puddles. One of these years I’ll actually get a nice weather center setup.

  3. Andrew says:

    This is for all of you who have not seen Mr. Taylors winter weather forcast, this is just a short article on. *LONG*
    State climatologist predicts a severe weather event this winter
    12:11 PM PDT on Tuesday, August 29, 2006
    Associated Press
    SALEM, Ore. — In his annual fall and winter forecast, state climatologist George Taylor predicts warmer than average temperatures and average to somewhat above average precipitation.
    “Compared to last year, it’s going to be less extreme and even dull,” Taylor said.
    But there could be a twist.
    To arrive at his forecasts, Taylor takes climate data for the current year and compares it with past years, looking for one when conditions were most similar to what they are now.
    For this forecast, Taylor focused on the similarities between now and 1951. Among the weather events of that year: a Dec. 6 tornado that struck near the Eugene airport. Oregon doesn’t get many tornadoes, but Taylor wouldn’t rule it out.
    “There could be a tornado any year, because an extreme weather event is par for the course here in the winter,” Taylor said.
    Taylor predicts a weak El Nino. That in turn will mean a flow of warm air coming to Oregon from the southwest instead of arctic blasts from the north. The jet stream is likely to sit just north of Oregon and it forms the boundary between warm and cold air, Taylor said.
    “Washington and British Columbia will be where the action is,” he said.
    In similar years, Southern Oregon saw deeper than average mountain snows, so Taylor expects decent ski conditions there.
    Taylor offers the predictions because farmers like having a general idea about coming trends. The Old Farmer’s Almanac also offers its own guesses. This year, the almanac agrees with Taylor about precipitation, but predicts colder weather.
    Taylor has had mixed results in recent years. He accurately predicted last winter’s stormy weather, but failed to foresee the dry winter of 2004-2005.

  4. Andrew says:

    HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE CASCADES THIS
    MORNING FROM ABOUT MT JEFFERSON NORTH. THE SNOW LEVEL IS NEAR
    6000 FEET. THIS COMBINATION WILL GIVE STICKING SNOW TO ELEVATIONS
    ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS POSSIBLE TO
    ELEVATIONS SLIGHTLY BELOW 6000 FEET. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 2 TO
    4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND
    7000 DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    Raining again 🙂

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    Thats good to hear that! Looks like showers are starting to build up a little bit, hoping so. Anyway I am working on an experimental winter lo forecast program. Its really really hard! lol I will let you know how that goes.

  7. Andrew says:

    Ya, timberline picked up around an inch of so of snow last night.
    http://www.kgw.com/news-local/stories/kgw_083006_news_snow_hood.4e1f8e33.html

  8. salemphil says:

    How wonderful to wake up to the sound of a good rain this morning, hope it rains some more today lol. Wait till winter when I whine about all the rain LOL.

  9. salemphil says:

    How wonderful to wake up to the sound of a good rain this morning, hope it rains some more today lol. Wait till winter when I whine about all the rain LOL.

  10. Sean says:

    Looks like there has been some snow this morning up on the Magic Mile Ski Lift at Timberline..
    http://theresort.com/webcam.html (Click on Magic Mile Lift)

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    Ok, now I see clark county is getting more rain but its all good. Ryan, you finally getting wet?

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey guys I got woken up by my weather machine buzzing about the rain. I picked up .12 at about 6:45 this morning. Raining lightly right now. I don’t know what this pattern is but I am getting the brunt of it, which is very rare 🙂

  13. Sean says:

    It looks like you guys should hold onto this High Pressure and Warm/Hot weather for several days, as there is a log jam in the weather. With Ernesto rolling up the east coast, is causing all other weather systems to pretty much stop in their tracks. \
    I may even get a visit from the remeniants of Ernesto as looking at the latest NHC track brings it into the OH valley region by Sunday and with an ULL sitting over the top of Indiana could spin in the moisture from what use to be Ernesto.
    So much for a comfortable and sunny Labor Day weekend..

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    I could go for that! lol Bring them on. You know this coming heat wave may not be fun but the east winds are a sign of getting closer to winter, yay!!

  15. Droppin says:

    NWS suggesting possible t-storms tomorrow due to cold air aloft enhancing the instability, and lapse rates holding favorable. Hmmm I hope so.

  16. Droppin says:

    NWS suggesting possible t-storms tomorrow due to cold air aloft enhancing the instability, and lapse rates holding favorable. Hmmm I hope so.

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    You can’t really tell from the pics but it gets water 20ft in the air lol. Anyway I may be off for a while, maybe not. Got some computer work to do…

  18. Derek Hodges says:

    two* I hope I wake up to heavy rain tomorrow ^^

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Based on what I learned with the other one I was able to build a very simple new one, but it sprays water like crazy in all directions. Here you go anyway, I have to different pictures.
    http://www.msnusers.com/RedPictures/shoebox.msnw

  20. luvrydog says:

    Wow, who ever thought we’d have excitement over a few showers moving into the NW, lol. That kinda shows exactly how boring the weather has been. I’m with ya on the heat, I just want it to go away, I want some good weather watchin around these parts again! I like the nice comfortable nights in the fall, even when it does get up to 90 this part of the year, we cool off pretty good at night for a comfortable sleep. Hope everyone is well, and Derek I hope you fixed your snow machine…lemme know when you might have any pics of that thing by the way.

  21. Derek Hodges says:

    As I stated before it was fairly wet at my house today. I am hoping for some more showers tomorrow. If we can get clearing by the late PM tomorrow we will drop into the mid 40s I think overnight that night. I will do my best to enjoy the coming heatwave, although I am tired of it. I suppose we can break the record then stop having heat. 🙂

  22. Andrew says:

    We have seen some weird weather this summer. It turned out to be much wamrer and much more dry then i thought it would be.

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