Down the Roller Coaster

Up, down, up, down…interesting 2nd half of summer eh?  Something for everyone.

Major marine push already in progress at 5pm.  I see the North Bend-PDX gradient is 7.3 mbs already!  That’s good even for 20 mph southerly wind in midwinter, so we should see a rapid cooldown this evening.  Dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere in the next 24 hours two as a sharp trough moves through the Northwest tomorrow & Wednesday.  It should suffice to say that tomorrow will be a VERY good day for windsurfing in the Gorge (I used to to that before marriage/kids/home improvement etc…).  Gusts to 50 mph from The Dalles to Arlington are likely.  The marine layer quickly thickens to well above pass elevations by midday too.

Rain is unlikely, but I think central/eastside metro area will see trace-.03" or so each of the next 2 mornings.

Then, it’s back to "September" heat.  It’s clear on the maps this afternoon that this weekends warmup will be a "fallish" pattern, not summer (same end result).  The sharp thermal trough develops out that the coast instead of in the valley Friday.  And surface high pressure builds over the Rockies (their first cool airmass since spring).  The combination will bring the first widespread early fall/late summer easterly wind to the Gorge, Cascades, Coast Range and metro area Friday & Saturday.  So enjoy the cool weather before the heat returns…Mark

37 Responses to Down the Roller Coaster

  1. Andrew says:

    Ya, thats crazy.

  2. Andrew says:

    Ya, thats crazy.

  3. josh "the snowman" says:

    Check this out. NWS is predicting 2 inches down to 5000 feet tomorrow. Is it still August? lol.
    http://www.king5.com/weather/mountain/?K5washington#4

  4. Andrew says:

    oh and up to the north, looks like snow was reported down to 5400 feet.

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    The coldest air is yet to come. Could be snow to the passes briefly tonight.

  6. Andrew says:

    By the way, snow fell down to the 6,000 foot level today, that just slightly below timberline lodge i believe.

  7. Andrew says:

    By the way, snow fell down to the 6,000 foot level today, that just slightly below timberline lodge i believe.

  8. Derek Hodges says:

    I have felt the same way Josh. No official stations around the metro area got more than .01 from what I can tell yet I had .05-.06 lol. It was dry just to my west for a good part of the day while it rained here. Get ready for some more tonight and tomorrow.

  9. josh "the snowman" says:

    Been a typical day up here in Everett. Cold and rainy this morning when I got up. Funny, I went down to Seattle and worked today and it was fairly pleasant, a little overcast, peaks of sun, no rain. Drove back home this afternoon and hit rain as soon as I got about 5 miles from home. Oh well, it’s good for the lawn, I need that sucker to green up.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    As for tomorrow it looks like a big swath of moisture is coming toward us. http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4
    Its moving ESE right now but will shift toward us and could create some decent rain. I hope so…

  11. salemphil says:

    I got a little drizzle here this morning, just enough to make the pavement damp. I have been planning/hoping for more tomorrow. I am going to pull out my ceramics and spend the day painting, eating and relaxing lol.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Sorry to hear about that Ryan. It looks to me like another moisture band may develop 5-7PM or so today. Perhaps you will catch something then. Tomorrow’s moisture push looks much more substantial.

  13. Ryan says:

    Not a drop of rain here in the Couve. Maybe if I was east of 205 I might see a few drops but not here in central Vancouver. It’s 65 here by Van Mall it appears most of Vancouver is 63 to 65.

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    I bet if we had this situation in the winter with some east winds blowing it could turn out to be a pretty good storm.. 🙂 Oh well, only 63 days till November.

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    I bet if we had this situation in the winter with some east winds blowing it could turn out to be a pretty good storm.. 🙂 Oh well, only 63 days till November.

  16. Derek Hodges says:

    Still raining here, down to 58.8 right now, the coolest I have seen it all day actually.

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    yeah…lol The nice thing is if the models are correct tomorrow could be a whole lot wetter than today. I wouldn’t be surprised to end up with .08-.10 by the days end if the constant showers keep up. And tomorrow could be even wetter. Its probably raining like a regular old storm up at Mark’s house today.

  18. Andrew says:

    What is that water falling from the sky called? been so long since i have seen it, i have forgot it’s name lol. Jokes aside, it is nice to nice a little rain move through after all this constant heat and dry weather.

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey I have already picked up at least .04 today. My rain gauge seems to only go in incriments of .04 so I suppose thats ok but at least its rained a bit today.

  20. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey I have already picked up at least .04 today. My rain gauge seems to only go in incriments of .04 so I suppose thats ok but at least its rained a bit today.

  21. Derek Hodges says:

    That is true Ryan, thats something I noticed and liked. My only gripe is trying to forecast specifics when you don’t even know what kind of pattern will set up.

  22. Ryan says:

    I think this is the most important piece from the OSU forcast:
    Further, most of our biggest snow events have occurred during ENSO-neutral years, such as this one. It could be a really big snow year for Portland.
    Disregard the report if you want but this is the most grounded piece of information in the report. It is also the most upbeat part of the forecast for snow. We could be above average temp wise 3 of 4 weeks and below average with a snow storm for 1 week and still be warmer than average for the month. That’s how I like look at it. 🙂

  23. Derek Hodges says:

    To go along with what I was just saying thats like saying the central cascades have a better risk of snow than the northern cascades…lol

  24. Derek Hodges says:

    Historically speaking it is a little more likely to get snow there than other places at similar elevations but why even mention that. You can’t be that percise that far out.

  25. josh "the snowman" says:

    I agree that you got to look at it as a whole, but I don’t buy the higher likelihood of snow in Portland and not the Willamette Valley. That is being too precise in my opinion. That’s like me saying there will be more snow here in Everett this winter because of the convergence zone. That’s a one in a million prediction basically. Speaking of the convergence zone. Next couple of days we are supposed to have one develop. Supposed to be mid/upper 60’s in Seattle with chance of showers. Here, mid/upper 50’s with heavy showers. Can’t wait til a cold/onshore flow hits in December this year. I’ve literally been in Seattle near 50 with the sun out, birds singing, drove the 20 miles north to my house and been 34 degrees with blinding snow………..fun stuff 🙂

  26. Derek Hodges says:

    I myself wouldn’t call winter outlooks good for nothing. Most of what they do is highlight what is most likely to happen in general. Things can pop up and do just about anything at anytime but its just a general outlook. Like how I am saying the second half of winter will be above normal temps with snow unlikely. Not that it couldn’t happen, but the chance of it happening is less likely. Really thats the way you have to look at them. The way Farmers Almanac does it is unrealistic and begging for failure. You can’t say warmer the 1st to the 3rd, snow the fourth to the sixth, then heavy rain..etc It doesn’t work. I have a feeling this year may break the number of 90 degree days record.

  27. Andrew says:

    I agree, anything forcasted this early is bound to change, however i do belive they can be a decent guideline. Also, when you read an “outlook”, you need to read between the lines and ignore some of what you read. For example, if they forcast above normal temps with below normal rainfall, that does not mean no snow. Snow events can pop up anywhere when your least expecting it.
    Look at last march, we had a couple weeks of 50’s if i remember right and then a couple inch snow storm decided to pay a visit.

  28. Andrew says:

    I agree, anything forcasted this early is bound to change, however i do belive they can be a decent guideline. Also, when you read an “outlook”, you need to read between the lines and ignore some of what you read. For example, if they forcast above normal temps with below normal rainfall, that does not mean no snow. Snow events can pop up anywhere when your least expecting it.
    Look at last march, we had a couple weeks of 50’s if i remember right and then a couple inch snow storm decided to pay a visit.

  29. josh "the snowman" says:

    In my opinion, those winter “outlooks” are bogus to say the least. They can tell if Portland is going to have more snow than, say, Salem? What they aren’t taking into account is the fact that a lot of the time the precip. doesn’t make it up to Portland because the east winds dry the low layers out. I lived in Salem for 8 years and remembered numerous times that it snowed there and not Portland “because” of the east winds. I’m not saying that the east winds don’t help the Portland snowstorms, but we can’t discount the fact that they hurt sometimes too.

  30. Andrew says:

    http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/Winter_06-07/forecast.html
    Forecast Discussion
    It is likely that this year will see warmer than average temperatures, and average to somewhat above-average precipitation.
    Every year, the most common question we hear is, “will we see low elevation snow?” Our guess (which is all we can do in good faith — predicting snow is really tough!) is that “widespread” low elevation snow—over all the Willamette Valley and much if the rest of Oregon—will not occur. However, we believe that at least one large snow event (4 inches or more) is likely for the Portland area (especially in those areas close to the Gorge).
    Further, most of our biggest snow events have occurred during ENSO-neutral years, such as this one. It could be a really big snow year for Portland.
    Mountain snows during analog years were a little deeper than average, especially in southern Oregon. For skiers, this winter may not be as good as last year’s (few are!), but it should be decent at least.

  31. Derek Hodges says:

    When I was at Fred Meyer I took a look at the Farmers Almanac and it showed us with a very cold Febuary with snow and freezing rain. Maybe some in November to December to if you read between the lines.

  32. Derek Hodges says:

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    Thats based off this computer model but when I look toward the very end it looks like a lot of storminess. Its some hope right.. 🙂

  33. Derek Hodges says:

    My high was 90.3 today. So thats day 19 above 90 this year. Looks like another 3-4 days above 90 possibly coming up. When will it end!?

  34. Derek Hodges says:

    My high was 90.3 today. So thats day 19 above 90 this year. Looks like another 3-4 days above 90 possibly coming up. When will it end!?

  35. Jesse says:

    I just want the 90 degree days to end,lol. Looks like more next weekend?

  36. Andrew says:

    I hit 91 degrees today as a high. About 3-4 degrees hotter then i expected. Also looks like many other areas hit 90+ today as well.

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