I love summer, but I guess all good things have to end. This is the last weekend of August. That means next weekend is September, Jerry Lewis Telethon here at KPTV, the kids go back to school right after that etc…
So I guess we end with more heat. Weak thermal trough develops near the Cascade Foothills tomorrow, then shifts into the Valley for all day Sunday. I expect about 5 degrees warming tomorrow and maybe another 2-4 on Sunday. Then a quick drop Monday as onshore flow kicks in strongly during the afternoon ahead of a trough. Our RPM model here (and UW-MM5) shows at best a 1-2 mb. easterly gradient through the Gorge. East wind will only be felt in the Cascades and west end of the Gorge. Mostly likely it won’t even make it to Troutdale Sunday. We are entering the season (late August-October) where east winds start to strengthen and during warm spells will spread out across the metro area. But this is not a good east wind event.
Tomorrow and Sunday will be days 17 & 18 above 90 degrees this summer. The record is 23 days.
Stay cool and enjoy one more sunny weekend…Mark
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
90.1 at my house. Here is this again if anybody missed it. http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/Winter_06-07/forecast.html
It has 3 winter forecasts, two of which are leaning in my and Justins direction.
..interesting for you. Forgot that
Thats good to see. Should be interesting.
http://www.msnusers.com/RedPictures/shoebox.msnw?Page=Last
These are the latest pictures on my snow machine, its insane and awesome. Also you can see my cat inside the sliding door on one of them lol. Anybody want directions?
Well, I pulled up the data from 1971-2000 for Indianapolis and here’s the averages for Oct thru Feb..
DATE MAX MIN AVERAGE PRECIP SNOW
TEMP TEMP TEMP FALL
OCTOBER 65.6 43.6 54.6 2.76 0.4
NOVEMBER 51.6 34.1 42.9 3.61 1.3
DECEMBER 39.2 24.0 31.6 3.03 6
JANUARY 34.5 18.5 26.5 2.48 9.3
FEBRUARY 39.9 22.5 31.2 2.41 6.1
Average Date of First Measurable Snowfall: November 19
Average Date of Last Measurable Snowfall: March 30
Earliest Date of First Measurable Snowfall: October 18, 1989
Latest Date of Last Measurable Snowfall: May 8, 1923
I didn’t put all the months on here, but they have at least a T of snow on average up through the month of May.. I also looked back at data from 1961-1990 and the Snowfall was about the same, but temperatures for DJF were 2F degrees colder than between the first set of data..
So, it’s not so much IF I will get snow, just how much..
Well, I pulled up the data from 1971-2000 for Indianapolis and here’s the averages for Oct thru Feb..
DATE MAX MIN AVERAGE PRECIP SNOW
TEMP TEMP TEMP FALL
OCTOBER 65.6 43.6 54.6 2.76 0.4
NOVEMBER 51.6 34.1 42.9 3.61 1.3
DECEMBER 39.2 24.0 31.6 3.03 6
JANUARY 34.5 18.5 26.5 2.48 9.3
FEBRUARY 39.9 22.5 31.2 2.41 6.1
Average Date of First Measurable Snowfall: November 19
Average Date of Last Measurable Snowfall: March 30
Earliest Date of First Measurable Snowfall: October 18, 1989
Latest Date of Last Measurable Snowfall: May 8, 1923
I didn’t put all the months on here, but they have at least a T of snow on average up through the month of May.. I also looked back at data from 1961-1990 and the Snowfall was about the same, but temperatures for DJF were 2F degrees colder than between the first set of data..
So, it’s not so much IF I will get snow, just how much..
Here is what I posted on the other websight just to be a bit more detailed than what I wrote earlier today.
Modified Winter Forecast
I had a couple of changes to make to my forecast, but they are small. I believe we will see borderline el nino/neutral ENSO conditions. Possibly meeting el nino threshold for a few months but not a full on el nino. This means there will not likely be any large effect from the tropics. Based on a variety of things, ENSO, PDO, PNA, Sunspot Minimum, Atlantic Hurricanes..etc I have come up with the following forecast. I will leave all my analog years out because you probably saw all of that stuff in my last winter outlook.
November-December
Average to possibly slightly below average temperatures.
Average Precipitation or slightly below average as a whole.
Good risk of snow and below average temperatures at some point during this period. I predict at least one larger arctic event and one minor event giving us at least a couple inches of snow.
January-March
First half of January may still be holding onto cooler pattern but after that returning to above average temps as the normal.
Most likely there will be slightly above average precip during these months.
After about January 15th snow will become unlikely for the remainded of the winter. Due to the patters we will be in snow will be unlikely, although not 100% impossible. These same warm and wet patters will make a wind storm far more likely. As you all know we are way overdue for another “big one”.
So my overall summery is the winter could be slightly above average as a whole for temps, but with periods of cold and probably snowy weather very possible. A above average risk of a significant arctic outbreak in December or early January and about average precip for the winter, but it may end up a few inches below normal for the winter.
hmm, this should get the debates going again.
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/Winter_06-07/forecast.html
88.5 here, seems like its higher than it was yesterday at this point.
Already 90.7 here. Was 88 at this time yesterday.
Already 90.7 here. Was 88 at this time yesterday.
On that note Sean its only 64 days till November. When are you going to start seeing snows out in your area?
86.5 at my house, which is always a cool spot. Dmitri will be gone till mid September doing something, thats what he said a while ago.
Nice write up Justin..
Was pretty much a bust for tornados on Saturday night, conditions in my area were quite tranquil, but there were some storms (not severe) that moved through the eastern part of the state. Then I got a nasty wake-up call at 3am this morning, had a huge complex oif storms moved through with frequent lightning and a ton of rain (a town to just my west picked up nearly 3 inches of rain in 1 and half hours). Even this afternoon the air is still quite juicy (PW values of 2+ inches).
At least were another day closer to winter..
Hey Andrew, thanks. Its been a long time, my computer wasn’t working then I figured out the entire harddrive was broken and the monitor was damaged as well. I’ve had to pay $250 in repairs and its currently being worked on, so I can only use my work computer which isn’t my favorite thing to do. So I was off for a couple of weeks, came back on Friday and posted a few times, will have to post pretty sparsely until my computer is back up and running which should be in the next few weeks some time.
Nice to see you agree, I’m probably going to, just for fun, buy the Old Farmer’s Almanac some time soon, just to see what they’re saying. Sometimes they can be more accurate than you’d think, with comparisons to similar astronomical years and similar harvest seasons.
The solar minimum should help this winter, so that’s something to think about as well. I’ll update all of my analogs for September as soon as I get a little more time, my computer is in the shop and should be working again in a few weeks, so I’ll be abale to ome back on routinely until then. BTW, anyone know where Dmitri went? Now he’s disappeared.