Back up the Roller Coaster

Looks like the marine air’s influence is quickly ebbing tonight.  North Bend-Spokane pressure gradient was 11.5 mb. last night, now it’s only 4.5 mb.  Tomorrow is a northerly wind day and then a weak thermal trough develops Saturday and Sunday right over the Willamette Valley.  As I mentioned last night, not a good east wind event coming up, but just an end to the onshore flow.  So 90-92 is probably the highest we’ll see at PDX in this pattern with 850 mb. temps peaking out around +20 to +21 C.

Nice trough forecast next week looks pretty strong on the ECMWF, my model of choice lately, so I threw some showers in the forecast Wednesday-Thursday.  Showers the last 2 days of August with solid marine atmosphere should keep temps in the 60s too.

I’m off to create some weather graphics.  I noticed we’ve had quite a string of sunny weekends, so I’ll talk about that at 10pm…Mark

21 Responses to Back up the Roller Coaster

  1. josh "the snowman" says:

    I meant as brown as mine…he he. My posting is rusty.

  2. josh "the snowman" says:

    Ya, Ernesto looks like it could be formidable. Too early to tell exact track. My best guess is that it will probably clip eastern Mexico then veer towards the north/northeast. Storms that far south usually do that. Oh well, still a ways out.
    As far as local stuff. How’s everyone doing? Are your lawns as green as mine? lol….. Hey Derek, been following your reports on your snow machine, pics would be nice.
    Looks like we are going to see something come through Wed/Thurs. Hopefully we can get over .05. Believe it or not, Seattle has gone 70 days without more than .05 worth of rain in one given day. We’ve only had .07 since June 1st, unbelievable.
    Oh, snow level down to 6500′ around the central WA cascades Wednesday night…it’s starting 🙂

  3. Derek Hodges says:

    It looks to me like Ernesto may hit somewhere between Lousiana/Texas border and the keys. If it were to hit western Texas it would most likely have to go through Mexico which would weaken it considerably. Probably will impact the US as a hurricane, but I am not sure of the strength yet.

  4. Derek Hodges says:

    As for Ernesto if it can survive reasable well through the little bit of dry air I will be worried. I haven’t looked into it to much yet but it will bear watching, of course. If anybody wants to know the latest on my snow machine I tested out something last night that got water 15ft+ in the air! lol It couldn’t handle the water pressure though so I rebuilt it, hopefully better. I will let you know how it goes after my next test.

  5. luvrydog says:

    So, on a more serious note…What do you see out of Ernesto? I think this could become a major hurricane into next week, we’ll have to wait and see of course but when it gets into the gulf…could it bullseye new orleans again??? That’s a scary thought! I think it will be at least a cat 2 entering the gulf and I look for it to landfall somewhere between brownsville and Louisiana, I know that’s a broad brush but it’s way to far out there right now to pin down anything more accurate.

  6. luvrydog says:

    So, on a more serious note…What do you see out of Ernesto? I think this could become a major hurricane into next week, we’ll have to wait and see of course but when it gets into the gulf…could it bullseye new orleans again??? That’s a scary thought! I think it will be at least a cat 2 entering the gulf and I look for it to landfall somewhere between brownsville and Louisiana, I know that’s a broad brush but it’s way to far out there right now to pin down anything more accurate.

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    I got some pictures developed. I took some pics of lightning back in July, one actually turned out! lol That is freakin hard with regular film. Although its on the very edge I wont complain to much.

  8. Derek Hodges says:

    90/91 did have snow on christmas 🙂 and that was one of my analogs too.

  9. Justin says:

    Hey Derek, interesting about the trough. I haven’t checked any models, I see Wedneday-Thursday rain is being forecasted again, haven’t had much rain since July 12.
    Oe last thing before I go, right now my top three analogs are:
    1951
    1969
    1990

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    One more thing to say, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/ensloop.html
    These are a bunch of runs put together, all of them show this trough coming in so its a sure bet pretty much.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    PNA continues to trend negative so thats always a good sign as well.

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    Thats a real pain to have to pay that much. If it had to happen you are right about your computer picking a good time to be stupid. Hopefully you don’t have to pay too much. I’m hoping that trough gives us some decent rain. Though I had a few drops a few days ago, no measurable rain for a very long time.

  13. Justin says:

    lol, yes, I am alive. The computer had been actinng strange, then the moniter broke, and I’ve had to pay $250 in computer repairs. Its still being worked on, and still having problems. i don’t want to buy a new desktop, but I may have to, so I’ll probably be gone for a little while longer while the thing is getting worked on. I haven’t had much of a chance until today to post from work, and I’ll try to do this a bit more over the next couple of weeks.
    I’ve had to rely on the stinkin’ Weather Channel and the news for my weather info, today I finally decided to just check the internet. Feels great to be back though at least for a little while, I see its been very quiet since I’ve been off. Again great to see everybody, I’ll try to come on more 0often until I get things repaired, but I just wanted to let everyone know I’m still alive and will post when I can. Probably is good I’ve had a couple of weeks off the computer, I was spending too much time on it anyways. Am hoping that by Labor Day I’ll have everything working again, another $250+ being spent would do me in.

  14. Justin says:

    lol, yes, I am alive. The computer had been actinng strange, then the moniter broke, and I’ve had to pay $250 in computer repairs. Its still being worked on, and still having problems. i don’t want to buy a new desktop, but I may have to, so I’ll probably be gone for a little while longer while the thing is getting worked on. I haven’t had much of a chance until today to post from work, and I’ll try to do this a bit more over the next couple of weeks.
    I’ve had to rely on the stinkin’ Weather Channel and the news for my weather info, today I finally decided to just check the internet. Feels great to be back though at least for a little while, I see its been very quiet since I’ve been off. Again great to see everybody, I’ll try to come on more 0often until I get things repaired, but I just wanted to let everyone know I’m still alive and will post when I can. Probably is good I’ve had a couple of weeks off the computer, I was spending too much time on it anyways. Am hoping that by Labor Day I’ll have everything working again, another $250+ being spent would do me in.

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    He’s alive? lol Its been a while but its good to see your back. I figured it could likely be computer problems. And actually correction, the 00z GFS had us at a +3 so thats pretty chilly.

  16. Justin says:

    Hey guys, I apologize for the time I’ve missed on here, my computer has been having problems, I’ve been away, and I’m taking a break for awhile from the computer anyways until it gets back on its feet and running again, so I may be gone for awhile longer. Am typing this from work right now, so how is everybody? Definitely seems quieter around these parts, but its great to see everybody! I’ll try to get on a little later when things with the comp aren’t so hectic. Take care, glad all this happened when the weather was so dull, if this had acted up in the middle of winter I wouldn’t have been too happy.

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    I turned the TV on at maybe 10:25 but I didn’t hear if he said anything about the dry weekends. The trough looks very impressive still. Down to a +4 or so at 850mb with lots of showers.

  18. luvrydog says:

    So I missed Mark’s forecast last night, what’d he have to say about the dry weekends?

  19. luvrydog says:

    Derek! Where the heck did everyone go? And do you know what happened to Justin yet? He musta gone on vaca? Looks nice and cool next week mid week. Models are still lookin good for a little rain, whatta think?

  20. Oregonguy says:

    Did anyone see the meteor last night at about 8:45 pm in the SW sky? The sun was just setting and there was still a good amount of twilight, but the thing still shined brighter than Jupiter except it had the telltale blue/green glow. Absolutely brilliant!

  21. Derek Hodges says:

    Yes! Finally..lol This trough better verify.

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