Back to Normal Finally

A strong marine push in progress this evening.  Apparently what was supposed to be a two-day push is happening all in one night.  So today’s forecast was too low and tomorrow’s may end up being too high.

But what a weekend eh?

I read some of your comments, but I can’t read all 300!  Someone was discussing east wind at one point too.  Drew Jackson & I were discussing that today as well.  Do you realize we went through this entire heat wave with no hot east wind making it out of the Gorge?  I think that if east wind would have made it to PDX on Friday, we could have gained another 3 degrees and hit that magic 107 mark.  Also, consider that the upper level ridge was never right over us with strong offshore flow, as model runs at midweek had shown.  I believe if that had occurred, we could have hit 108 (or higher?).  Someday, but maybe I’ll be an old man…Mark

97 Responses to Back to Normal Finally

  1. Andrew says:

    i am really bored if you can’t tell lol. Here on some bloopers from accuweather.com weather online.

  2. Derek Hodges says:

    Maybe we will get a snowstorm LOL

  3. Andrew says:

    it’s going to be a down right cold day this sunday acording to channel 8…lol
    http://www.kgw.com/weather/?ln

  4. Andrew says:

    I think it has a lot to do with PDO (complete guess but it sounds good lol )

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    So, what makes the difference between a “good” and “bad” el nino. I mean, PDO, how positive SST’s are, etc. Any opinions because this would be nice to know! lol

  6. Justin says:

    Yes, I remember the Russian winter of 1943, definitely a huge point in WW11. But that is all very interesting, I’m sure there are exceptions here or there, but I’d like to read mroe about Ninas and Ninos effects on Europe.

  7. Dmitri K says:

    Oh and forgot to add on that 1942-43 was also an exceptional case. Of course that was a severe winter in the United States, coast to coast, and was also the coldest winter of the last 100+ years in Eastern Europe. That’s the winter that a lot of German forces froze to death while fighting in Russia, which helped turn the tide in the war. Moscow recorded -44 that winter, their lowest ever in 100+ years. Average low is above zero, so it was quite something.

  8. Dmitri K says:

    Actually as it happens our winters do correlate strongly with Europe. The spacing is just right with the Atlantic Ocean that both the US and Europe see big troughs and frequent arctic air at generally the same time (at least the same patterns for a season).
    There have been all kinds of great examples.
    – 1995-96 had a major cold wave in England that tied the UK all-time record low of -17 in Scotland. Of course we had the last really massive arctic oubreak in the US that same winter.
    – 1990-91 was the last time a big snowstorm struck London and the last time a really big freeze struck Paris (single digits). Of course we know about the great December 1990 arctic oubreak here.
    – 1981-82 also had a major cold wave that originally set the -17 record in England. At the exact same time, we had the great Arctic Outbreak of 1982 and the Cold Sunday occuring in the US.
    – 1978-79 was the most severe winter in Eastern Europe since the 1940’s. Severe winter in the US also.
    – 1962-63 was the coldest and snowiest winter in the last 200 years in Great Britain. Severe winter in the US with many all-time record lows.
    – 1955-56, as discussed was severe in Europe and in the US.
    – 1946-47, was the 2nd worst winter in England sine the 1800’s after 1962-63. Greatest Deep Freeze in North American history in Alaska and the Yukon that same winter.
    And so on and so forth…

  9. Justin says:

    Didn’t know about 1955-56 in Europe, do our coldest winters usually correlate with their’s? They’re obviously influenced more by the Atlantic, and usually when one is cold the other is not.
    1955-56 was a near perfect winter. Battle Ground’s snow stats say it all.
    9.3” in November, 1” in December, 13” in January (mostly from the big 10 incher on January 27, 1956, great snowstorm btw), 4” in February, and 3” in March. Only one of 3 winters that snow has fallen in every month from November to March here. I wouldn’t mind repeating that one for here one bit.

  10. Dmitri K says:

    Hmm, that makes sense. I seem to remember those years mentioned as La Nina winters before. 1955-56 was one of our longest and best winters of the last 100 years or so.
    We had 6 separate Arctic oubreaks (including 3 severe ones and 3 lesser ones), spanning from mid-November to early March. Had both our earliest and latest true arctic outbreaks ever, but ironically most of January was very warm until a huge Arctic outbreak late in the month. One of our few real March snowstorms ever also.
    Not sure if you heard about this Justin but February 1956 was also the coldest and snowiest in Europe of the entire 20th century. I remember reading about it a long time ago somewhere, something like 1100+ perished throughout the continent from the month-long bitter cold and blizzards. A lot of towns and villages in Eastern Europe had to form citizen armies to fight off packs of ravenous wolves that would attack the towns in search of food.

  11. Justin says:

    1999-2000. Reason why it wasn’t such a great winter was because of the positive PNA most likely.
    1988-89 was our 3rd strongest Nina in recorded times (1950-present). 2nd strongest was 1973-74, strongest was 1955-56.

  12. Dmitri K says:

    When was our last strong La Nina anyway? 1988-89?

  13. Justin says:

    Yes, i remember the great october 1997 blizzard. Shut down the denevr airprot for days, and had a huge swath of 20-30” totals.
    http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/OCT97SNOW.html

  14. Dmitri K says:

    I guess I meant that for Oregon it was only a very localized event, only experienced by areas in and around the gorge. And again my view of that winter is skewed by me only getting about 0.2″ of snow from that event (plus 1″ on December 23).
    Its interesting to note that, as is usually the case in El Nino winters, there were impressive outbreaks of cold air both early in the season and late in the season, but with a warm actual winter period.
    Early September 1997 saw one of the greatest early season chills to ever affect the United States, I still remember such records for early season cold as 20 in Tower, MN, 28 in International Falls, MN, 33 in Lansing, MI, 39 in Gilbert, AR, and 52 in Charleston, SC – incredible numbers for September 2-5.
    Late October 1997 saw a great blizzard in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas which set all-time snowfall records with totals of 20-25″, as well as October record lows. I remember Hill City, KS hit 3 degrees, while their previous October record had been 16.
    There was a huge arctic outbreak in mid-March with numerous record lows, inlucing -38 in Hettinger, ND, one of the coldest readings ever east of the Rockies so late in the season. I remember North Platte, NE also hit -22, a late season record.
    And finally, a huge late season chill in early June that was one of the biggest in US history. June record lows were set from the mid-20’s in the Canadian prairies and North Dakota to the 40’s in Alabama and Mississipi.

  15. Andrew says:

    i want a strong La Nina.

  16. Justin says:

    And FWIW, you’re not right about it being a 15 x 15 mile snow event. Longview had 3.5 inches, and the people in Olympia probably would beg to differ as well. As you say, just arguing for arguements sake here. The January 11-12, 1998 snowstorm though only affected places north of portland, but all of SW Washington and most of the Puget Sound region saw 3-6 inches of snowfall as well from it.
    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/1998/1/11/DailyHistory.html
    http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOLM/1998/1/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

  17. Justin says:

    Well, actually I agree that 97-98 was horribly mild and dry. Typical Nino in that sense. But December 1997 was quite chilly here, no arctic outbreaks, but had the decent little snow event of December 22-23, 1997. Salem spent many days that month shrouded in thick fog in the 30’s, and finished the mnoth half a degree below average.
    The first half of January was an arctic paradise in western OR and WA, parts of the Metro had a little snow eevnt on the 3rd, snow across the Puget Sound region on January 1 and January 3 as well. Then the arctic east wind event of January 8-13, which of course sort of skewed my opinion on the entire winter, but the fact that we had several other little snow eevnts dotted across the early portion of the winter made it good IMO.
    The rest of January, and especially the extreme Nino February 1998, a textbook example of a strong El Nino, were pretty balmy and awful. For NYC and PHL, it was their 3rd warmest and 2nd least snowy winter on record, and was probably one of the 5 warmest winters across the coutnry since records began. But here, having 17-18 inches of snow made it a solid winter for me, my 3rd best since I began keeping records in 1992.

  18. Dmitri K says:

    Just arguing for argument’s sake by the way. Your post was good.

  19. Dmitri K says:

    Just have to disagree on one year mentioned there. 1997-98 was actually a terrible (mild) winter, it just happened to sneak in one cold event for the entire winter in the first half of January that happened to give us winter weather.
    December was one of the mildest ever in US history, and it was the only December in history where the temperature didn’t fall below 0 in Glasgow, MT. Then, from January 15 and all the way through February the US was incredibly mild, with February being the warmest ever in many places across the country.
    In between was the only cold anomaly – an Alaska cold wave from about January 1-8 which then slid down Canada and into the US to give the country basically its only arctic oubreak of the DEC-JAN-FEB period between January 8-13 or so, which of course happened to produce a very localized gorge-effect snowstorm that only affected about a 15 by 15 mile square of Willamette Valley around Portland.

  20. Justin says:

    (*long post*)
    Yep, any time Vernonia, and I agree. It really only does a good job of showing flash flood events, not true rain on snow events like February 1996. And the flood you’re thinking of was December 1964, which in my opinion was quite a bit worse overall than February 1996.
    Derek, you realize that when I say 1994-95 is shaping up to be a good analog, i’m saying that we’re probably going to see an El Nino this winter? Yup, that’s right, 94-95 was a Nino, and a fairly strong one at that. Maybe our snowiest winter in recorded history for many places (post 1940), was 1968-69 and that was an El Nino. Another good analog was 1977-78, another solid El Nino winter. 1951-52 was an excellent winter, and an El Nino winter.
    So El Ninos aren’t always bad, 1997-98 was another good Nino winter. The SOI right now is positive for today, but is negative for the month, and a negative SOI of course is a sign of El Nino. I’m thinking right now that we’ll probably see a weak El Nino some time next winter, and again that’s not necessarily a bad thing at all.
    Right now, i’d like to see the PNA go back to negative in the long term, but its still July and things can certainly change.
    I’ll probably post more winter analogs and thoughts some time in September-October, but I will say that the best PDO analog for the first 6 months of the year has been 1942, and that of course was a great winter. However, 1939 was also an excellent analog and 1939-40 was a terrible winter, so things are still very preliminary right now.

  21. Jason Hoover says:

    I am glad the Portland Area is back to normal, and this heat wave is over. Temperatures in the 80’s are much more comfortable. I feel sorry for the people who lost power. Also, I went to Spokane for the weekend, and it was hot in Eastern Washington! Way too hot to be walking Downtown Spokane!
    I also have a feeling that this might not be our last heat wave.
    Jason

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    Sometimes you have to do all counties for things to show up.

  23. vernonia1 says:

    Justin….
    that is a nice link. Thanks for posting it.
    Gotta tell you though….cannot imagine that is shows NO flood events in Columbia Co. ever & in ’96 we were under 4+ ft of water here. Also flooded in the 60’s i think????
    Cherie

  24. Derek Hodges says:

    We are still only in July so there is time to change, since it wasn’t that way a couple weeks ago.

  25. Andrew says:

    ugh, that does look like a developing el nino, but hopfully it only “looks” like one.

  26. Derek Hodges says:

    I could go for some storms. I hope this doesn’t pan out, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ It almost looks like a developing el nino

  27. Andrew says:

    lol, maybe a couple blizzards here and there, but nothing to worry about. Anyways….i don’t really see much of a chance of T-Storms over the next few days, though things can change.

  28. luvrydog says:

    Yeah, exactly…not to exciting. I was just wondering if there was any small chance of storms I was missing in the models or maybe a slight chance of a snow/ice storm, lol…j/k

  29. Andrew says:

    hey luvrydog, not a whole lot going on over the next 7 days, you can expect to see a slight cooldown, should not really see temps in the 90’s again for at least a week i am thinking at this point. slight chance of some rain end of week.

  30. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t know about the dates Andrew, sorry. I guess we can look forward to a small chance of rain at the end of the week.

  31. luvrydog says:

    Halllo ya’ll. What’s goin on today? Anything new? PHEW, what a relief this morning, felt GREAT outside! Nothing looks to exciting over the next week, anybody notice anything of interest for the next 7 days that’s worth watching?

  32. Andrew says:

    anyone know if eastern washington has a different stud deadline then western washington? or is it the same for the whole state?

  33. Andrew says:

    thanks

  34. Justin says:

    No problem.
    And Andrew, be sure to report a lot next winter for us, even when we’re just getting 50 degree rain and Ellensburg is getting a blizzard. It really does look like a nice college, hope you like it out there.

  35. Andrew says:

    but, on certain weekends that i may come back, it could get difficult yes. But i can always drive to seattle (1.45 hours away) and then take I-5 home from there.

  36. Derek Hodges says:

    Ok, that makes a lot more sense, thats just what I thought I heard LOL

  37. Andrew says:

    derek, i am staying in the dorms at central washington university lol. it is 4 hours from here, that would be a long drive to take everyday lol.

  38. Derek Hodges says:

    Wow, that was simpler. Thanks a lot.

  39. Justin says:

    Derek, first go here
    http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms
    Then select your state (i.e. Oregon). Once there, select the event type that you want from the list (i.e. Tornado), then select the county from the list and you’ll come up with a list of every tornado to have occured in that county from 1950 to 2006. If you don’t know what county a certain city is in, then you might just want to select All Counties instead of just one and you’ll get every tornado or severe thunderstorm to have occured in the entire state of Oregon from 1950 to 2006.
    If you want snow events, then do just that and select ‘All Counties’ for the state you want, then select Snow & Ice as the event and it will give you a list of every snow event since January 1, 1993.
    So, I select Oregon, and I’m looking for a snow event. So I select All Counties, put in Snow & Ice, and I get the list. I scroll down and I find the event I’m looking for, the January 2004 snow & ice storm. Its listed under a certain set of regions for the state of Oregon (regions 1-10 are Western Oregon), and I find the event.
    http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~557110
    It may sound sort of difficult at first, but trust me, once you get the hang of it, its very simple. Hope this helped.

  40. Derek Hodges says:

    One more question, how do you work this thing to look at events? http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~234930
    If I try and search for anything in that box it pulls up a bunch of non helpful info. Can I have directions lol

  41. Derek Hodges says:

    What I forgot to add, and I-84 is closed or something

  42. Derek Hodges says:

    Wow, nice place. You will enjoy it. But what if they don’t cancel classes and you have to commute from here. Isn’t that what your doing?

  43. Derek Hodges says:

    sorry I was gone for a sec, I will read all that stuff. Boulder gets 57 inches a year and like 40 thunderstorm days so I will be in weather heaven haha. I bet you will be if we have a decent winter though to since I know it snows a fair amount there

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