Back to Normal Finally

A strong marine push in progress this evening.  Apparently what was supposed to be a two-day push is happening all in one night.  So today’s forecast was too low and tomorrow’s may end up being too high.

But what a weekend eh?

I read some of your comments, but I can’t read all 300!  Someone was discussing east wind at one point too.  Drew Jackson & I were discussing that today as well.  Do you realize we went through this entire heat wave with no hot east wind making it out of the Gorge?  I think that if east wind would have made it to PDX on Friday, we could have gained another 3 degrees and hit that magic 107 mark.  Also, consider that the upper level ridge was never right over us with strong offshore flow, as model runs at midweek had shown.  I believe if that had occurred, we could have hit 108 (or higher?).  Someday, but maybe I’ll be an old man…Mark

97 Responses to Back to Normal Finally

  1. Dmitri K says:

    That was nice. I’ve never really explored the PNA before. It does match up pretty well with our weather in most cases, but not all so its definitely not a sure thing.
    I found it especially misleading indicating -130 for the month of June, when that was our warmest June ever (I believe, haven’t yet verified it).
    But its a good general guide nonetheless.

  2. Justin says:

    Oops, here is the link showing where the indexes have been over the past year. For some reason I didn’t post this.

    Like I say, -1.1 would be -110 on the chart I gave you. So a fairly strongly negative PNA for most of June 2006, which correlated well with our chilly weather during late May-first half of June. The PNA went positive again though in late June, and has been there ever since, which correlates with our heatwaves of the past 2 months.

  3. Andrew says:

    hehe…you’ll have to excuse me lol, did not get much sleep last night, so getting tired…unable to identify sarcasm.

  4. Dmitri K says:

    lol I actually heard it Andrew. That was the joke. 🙂
    They were there for looks.

  5. Justin says:

    No, more the QBO and PNA. PDO basically is just a long term reading explaining the SST anomaly in the Pacific, it corrletaes mostly with El Nino and La Nina.
    The difference between a lame Nino and a good one is dependent on the strength of the Nino first of all, and the two readings I mentioned.
    The QBO is a pretty complicated reading of the wind direction at 500mb, its strength at 500mb, and the way it propagates downward to the surface, which is always affecting the temperature.
    PNA is simpler, a bit like the PDO, but correlates better with our temperatures and precip. You can have a negative PNA during a strong El Nino,a dn that cna make it a great winter for here, but then you can have the exact opposite and have a positive PNA during a La Nina. It really just depends on things such as the QBO and the temps up in the stratosphere/troposphere.
    Here is a chart showing monthly PNA readings since 1948.
    http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data/pna/
    It actually matches up even better with our temperatures then PDO does. As you see, the most negative PNA (which is good for cold/snow up here), was in January 1950. Then look at January 1969. Even though January 1969 was during the middle of an El Nino, it was still a strongly negative PNA. The PNA switches back and forth constantly, moving with the ejtstream. It is way more progressive than PDO, and a simple week of negative PNA in the middle of an El Nino could give us colder temperatures.
    If you want to see where the PNA has been, here is a chart from the CPC showing the current PNA. Hint: Remove the decimal point, so -1.1 would equal -110 on the chart I just showed you.
    Also, here is a PNA forecast from the GFS
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml
    They are showing a slight negative trend for the next couple of weeks, which goes well with the lowering 500mb heights and the upcoming trough. PNA as you can see is VERY important, maybe even more so than the PDO.
    BTW, some years that I analogged for PNA were the follwoing:
    1956
    1976
    1985
    1987
    1990
    1994
    2004
    If this were any early winter outlook, then it would support average-a little below average temps and below average precipitation for the enxt few months, or a cool and dry fall here in the NW.
    Sorry about the length of this post btw, hope it doesn’t take up too much space.

  6. Andrew says:

    ya, was not really all that funny though, just bored haha. They kept messing up when talking about canada’s weather and not putting it in the metric system. And several times a couple of them said “I really hate canada”.

  7. Dmitri K says:

    Were those girls actually saying something? I wasn’t listening.

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