9:30pm Heat Update

I would agree with those of you below talking about the warm night ahead.   I can’t believe it’s 9:45pm and the temperature at our station is still 89 on the roof!
This may be the warmest/muggiest night many of us have ever seen in Portland.  What could be more "perfect" for a warm night?  A record high temp, then thick cloud cover arrives immediately following peak heating.  Plus the dewpoint is well into the 60’s now.  So I’m forecasting 72.  Our RPM model shows about 76.  Of course the all time record is 74 at PDX, so this will be one of the warmest nights ever in the metro area. 
I dropped tomorrow’s forecast to 97, assuming that the cloud cover would be pretty persistent through midday.  If it breaks up quickly, we’ll be back to 100.  The radar looks impressive this evening, but there’s hardly any rain reaching the ground.  In fact there have been NO lightning strikes in Oregon today or this evening.  All moisture appears to be above 10,000′.
Not much cooling Sunday, then a pretty good push Monday to put us back down to 90 or so.  That should feel much more comfortable.

207 Responses to 9:30pm Heat Update

  1. Hanson says:

    do you think that when they burn off they will trogger instability due to the surface haeting

  2. Gerry says:

    exactly 30 minutes later and it’s now 89.1 F
    19th & Tillamook, Irvington District, 11:49 AM

  3. Justin says:

    79 here and dropping! I’m honestly going to be shocked if we get to 90 today, really. Some of these 100/101 forecasts are going to bust. Am glad I didn’t jump straight into believing the models.

  4. Andrew says:

    hey Marie, thanks for posting. always good to see new people posting their stories and thoughts.

  5. Droppin says:

    * Long Post *
    Cherie, I’ve compiled a list of links to give you information that will help forecasting/predicting substancially.
    NWS – Satellite links.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/?wfo=pqr
    Computer Model Data.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/
    SPC Composite Map.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/compmap/
    Meteograms.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/meteograms.php
    WeatherUnderground Radar (Portland)
    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=RTX&type=N0R
    These things should help. That’s just a few things. Anyone else feel free to please post links for further info. Thanks.

  6. Gerry says:

    11:18 AM, 19th & NE Tillamook (Irvington District):
    84.2F and slowly climbing.
    Don’t think we will hit 100F today because of the clouds.

  7. Marie says:

    Hi.
    I’m new to writing on this site but I have been reading comments here since last winter. I thought I would write about my experience last night. I live in east Gresham. The power went off in my neighborhood last night at 6:00. My family decided to take a ride in the gorge until it came back on but when we returned the power was still off and the house was hot. We took a walk in the dark at 10:00. It was still 90 out. PGE said the power would be on at midnight but nothing happened. We tried to sleep but it was hard with no air conditioning or fans. The power finally came back on at 2:30. The low temperature here was 74 here. Thank goodness we finally have power. No cause was given. Hopefully it won’t happen again.

  8. luvrydog says:

    Well, the problem with these clouds is they’re upper level, thus they’re not just gonna burn off like out typical low cloudiness. I’m watching the western flank of the clouds to see how far east it moves. It’s tough to tell the direction of this cloud mass right now, some of it is receding east, but there’s still a push N/NW from the whole band. I am saying we see the clouds gone about 3-4pm but I don’t know if that gives us enough time to get to the upper 90’s today. I’m just worried about the humidity and stickiness when that sun does start to bear down!

  9. Droppin says:

    Possibly Derek yes. Looks like activity is trying to intensify west of 1-5 corridor up and down the valley.

  10. Droppin says:

    Here is the satellite loop.
    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=2
    This gives us a good idea of when any clearing will occur. Judging by this my interpretation I say clearing skies no sooner than 2pm.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    80.3 now..thats odd that I am going down lol

  12. Derek Hodges says:

    I am concerned that the temp will fall below 75 this evening to make is so that we don’t end up breaking the all time record high low

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    Would you agree with me Droppin based off my link?

  14. Droppin says:

    Well welcome to the Weatherteam Cherie. Feel free to predict, forecast, or give your opinions about anything. That’s how we learn how to be better forecasters. Also it’s fun to see how things play out, and what others think of our predictions.
    -Rob

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    I dropped to 80.5. Looks like some sprinkles are in my neighborhood. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
    It also looks like there is a little filling in to the SE, perhaps it will finally make it here

  16. vernonia1 says:

    I thinks they will burn off & it will be 95-97 at least. Never made a prediction before LOL

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    I have been sitting at 80.6 for at least 30 minutes

  18. Droppin says:

    Never got below 78.5 here. 84.2 here now. If these clouds don’t clear out I doubt any of us see 90 today.

  19. vernonia1 says:

    72 for a low here. Stayed 77 in the house & of course the rain, UGH! it was so muggy. Set a small floor model AC in the bedroom just so we could sleep.
    Walked out to the front room @ 3AM & it was like a sauna. Inside is gonna be uglier today than it was yesterday for me I think.
    Cherie

  20. Andrew says:

    86.5 degrees now with mostly cloudy skys

  21. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t know if this is right but at Mark’s house its 79.4 with a dew point of 74.4 lol, http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/markswxlinks.html

  22. Derek Hodges says:

    Any chance something will get in here and give us some real storms?

  23. Derek Hodges says:

    hmm, I will stick with my 98 from yesterday. Thats of course assuming we break out of the clouds by about noon. Otherwise 94-96 would seem good.

  24. Andrew says:

    ya, the higher the temps climb, the more that water will start to evaporate before hitting the ground. By the way, how high do you think we will get today? I think we might be climbing a little slower, but we had a 5+ degree head start this morning as well.

  25. Derek Hodges says:

    That should feel good, man that was a horrible sleeping night..I hope we get just a little bit, but you get to have a dry pool party. Thats almost ironic lol

  26. Andrew says:

    would be cool, i meant to say

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