How Hot? : Version 3

July 19, 2006

So we play the heat game again this afternoon, roll the weather dice and find…

Not much different since 24 hours ago.  It’s a little boring but always nice when models really have a good handle on an approaching significant weather event.    Last night I mentioned the models (mainly GFS) had cooled the temps just slightly in the Friday-Sunday period.  That has now stopped and temperatures on each run (they come out very 6 hours) have stayed about the same. 

I did notice the 18z GFS was slightly warmer and holds on to the heat a bit longer through.  A peak of +26-27 C is shown Saturday afternoon on the GFS, but the only offshore flow is on Friday, then it’s flat through the rest of the weekend before onshore kicks in early next week.  The ECMWF has been uncharacteristically warm the last 2 runs as well.  It shows a +28 for Sunday AND Monday morning!  Hmm, hopefully it’s not right with the 18z GFS just starting to "catch up".  If so, I’d have to bring the 105-107 idea back in again.  But for now I’m leaving the forecast as it was last night.  Both GFS/ETA/MM5 do show a quicker warmup tomorrow than originally expected.  They all show +12 to +16 degF from today’s high.  Of course that would mean at least 95.  So that sounds like a good number to me…Stay Cool!  Mark

11:30pm Addition:  00z ETA & GFS were slightly warmer, especially the ETA, so I bumped Friday up to 104.  The GFS surface temps appear to be inhibited by cloud cover of some sort.  Hopefully not the monsoonal moisture sitting to our south.  ETA doesn’t show any working north.  And play nice guys…no need to argue over a forecast until AFTER the event actually occurs!