Brightness in The Tunnel

A pleasant surprise in the maps today in the long term…but first tonight.

Cold upper trough is overhead now…er, actually part is slipping south along the Oregon Coast and the other part is in Southern British Columbia.  I was disappointed by the lack of strong convection today, but there’s always tomorrow right?  Snow levels right now are moving back down pretty close to the passes (Gov’t Camp, Santiam, Willamette).  Last visible camera pictures showed some snow on the side of Willamette Pass.   I love camping, but between crowds & cold this weekend, somehow I don’t mind that I work over the holiday.  I’m sure that "Memorial Day" taken in late July or August will be quite a bit more comfortable don’t you think?

Tomorrow the showers come in from the northwest or even north-northwest by late in the day as a chunk of that British Columbia low slides south over us.  Expect another cold & showery day.  Then northerly flow on Sunday keeps us cool with lighter showers.

So the change is Monday and beyond.  Yesterday’s GFS was trending towards more troughiness next week right over us, while the ECMWF had more troughing offshore, giving us a weak ridge.  Now the GFS & NAM are looking like the ECMWF with more ridging developing over the West again from Monday-Thursday next week.  Looks like early summer weather will be coming back.  75-80 in this pattern is most likely.

28 Responses to Brightness in The Tunnel

  1. Andrew says:

    Ya, looks like a 3.3 quake hit the mountain early this morning causing a minor landslide and a small ash emission.

  2. Benjamin Monjay says:

    FVXX22 KNES 291649
    VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
    ISSUED: 2006MAY29/1648Z VAAC: WASHINGTON
    VOLCANO: ST. HELENS 1201-05
    LOCATION: N4611 W12210 AREA: US-WASHINGTON
    SUMMIT ELEVATION: 8363 FT (2549 M)
    ADVISORY NUMBER: 2006/002
    INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES-12. GFS WINDS. PILOT
    REPORT. CASCADES VOLCANO OBSERVATORY.
    ERUPTION DETAILS: ROCKFALL PRODUCED PUFF OF ASH
    OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 29/1630Z
    OBS ASH CLOUD: SFC/FL200 4NM WIDE LINE BETWEEN
    N4614 W12213 – N4612 W12210. ASH IS MOVING N 0-10
    KNOTS.
    FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: 29/2230Z NO VA EXP.
    FCST ASH CLOUD +12H: 30/0430Z NO VA EXP.
    FCST ASH CLOUD +18H: 30/1030Z NO VA EXP.
    REMARKS: THE CASCADES VOLCANO OBSERVATORY REPORTS
    A ROCKFALL ACCOMPANIED BY ABOUT 2 MINUTES OF
    ACTIVITY THAT PRODUCED ASH THAT HAS RISEN AT LEAST
    TO FL200. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE KEEPING
    THE ASH FAIRLY NEAR THE SUMMIT AND IT IS DIFFICULT
    TO DETERMINE A DIRECTION BUT A SLOW NORTHERLY
    MOVEMENT SEEMS MOST LIKELY. …
    NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 2006MAY29/2245Z
    NNNN
    ———-
    To unsubscribe, send a blank email to majordomo@gp5.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov
    with the following as the only text: unsubscribe vaac_list

  3. Justin says:

    True, its much more extreme, but that is why our weather is so great. It CAN be extreme, it just does so less often, making the extremities that much more precious. But that Eastern humidity, ouch. I’ve spent heat waves in D.C. and trust me, its not fun. Swimming pools help, but only for so long.
    But it must be a pretty big difference moving from Rhododendron {?}, up there in the mountains, to the flat climate of Indiana. Have fun out there Sean and continue sending pics whenever something interesting happens.

  4. Sean says:

    Justin – The sticky weather is just fine with me, it’s called having a swimming pool. The weather out here is just a bit more exciting than the weather in Oregon.. I’ve probably seen more thunderstorms in the 3 months of living here, than I saw in 5 years in Oregon..

  5. Sean says:

    Definitely hot and sticky here today.. 90 deg and recorded a dewpoint high of 71, put the heat index at 95 today. If there was just a trigger for thunderstorms, would of turned severe very quickly.. Cape of 4000 and LI of -10 for today, but even without a trigger had a very nice CU field develop this afternoon. Looking for a low of 71 and fog tonight.. That’s definitely one strange thing to see, is fog at such a warm temperature.
    Seems that storms will be possible any day this week, with such an unstable atmosphere in place. At least until passage of the cold front that is currently in the high plains.

  6. Justin says:

    Yep, which is why I stick to posting about hurricanes and other far away weather during the season.

  7. Mat says:

    I know what u mean Dmitri. The mere forecasting in the winter can be so off at times thats what makes that time of year so much more exciting. You never know what your gonna get. 45 and rain, or a nice surprise from a cold Gulf of Alaska low or some nice east winds to cool us down to freezing or lower. Or the combination of the two, fun stuff, anyways all, talk to ya later.

  8. Dmitri K says:

    Yeah this board definitely isn’t the hot-spot hangout during our summer season. Endless days of 75-85 highs and sunny to partly sunny skies. Yawn. Or Maybe 65-70 and cloudy with some light rain. Another yawn. Or maybe even 90-95…yawn nonetheless.
    The only things that would be worth talking about here over the next 3-4 months is either a nice 100 degree heatwave, which may happen once or not at all, or a batch of thunderstorms, which may happen 2 or maybe at most 3 times.
    This is the time of year to enjoy the weather and not think too much about it, at least locally.

  9. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t know about all of next week, warm and dry for the first half but the end of the week may be wet.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    Thats GFS ECMWF also shows similar things..

  10. Justin says:

    Not much to talk about, should be back to dry and dull over the next week, at the very least give us a heat wave or something to ponder over.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    so…uh…nicer today lol Kinda quiet day

  12. alex says:

    .55 here

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    lol what do you know

  14. Justin says:

    Funny that you say that Derek, I have exactly .53 in the jar right now and the Orchards WX site has exactly .55.

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    I think we had, though it appeared more, about .55 or so. It rained a little bit longer here than in most other areas, there is still some coming down lightly.

  16. Justin says:

    About .40 now, still really coming down but the band is moving out.

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah if its only 1/4 inch thats what I meant by decieving. It has picked up in intensity though so maybe adding up a bit now.

  18. Justin says:

    See what you mean, but by mid July you may just be tired enough of that humidity to come crawling back to sunny, high and dry Oregon. BTW, snow levels are near the passes, haven’t checked ODOT cams yet but they were expecting some all the way down past Govt. Camp.
    Derek, not quite a half inch. .26 in my rain guage right now, emptied it last at 10 this morning. Over the past week I’d say I’ve had about 2.50 inches.

  19. Sean says:

    I remember that there have been some HOT memorial day weekends. But I think over the last several years, they have had a tendcy to be cool and rainy. In 2003, when I lived up in Rhododendron that we went up to Gov’t Camp and it was a snow/rain mix .
    I will take Warm & Humid over Cool and Rainy anytime. Im glad I didn’t get tickets for the Indy 500 tomorrow, I mean 6 hours of being exposed to heat indicies over 90+.. Nah, I’ll pass on that fun..

  20. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah, Justin do you have a total for your rainfall there? Its just been steady and wet all day long here as well. Easy half inch I would think but it can be decieving.

  21. Justin says:

    Hey Sean, yeah its a drag being in the Northwest in May, huh? Sounds a little, er, humid back there in Indy.
    Here, heaviest rain of the day so far, have had a solid band of rain over us for nearly 10 hours now, just starting to get heavy.

  22. Sean says:

    Hey Justin and Derek.. Seems to be a normal Memorial Day back there in Oregon.. Cold and Rainy, seems to be a trend lately. Here it’s 85 deg with a dewpoint of 62, so it’s a bit sultry outside (looking for lows to be around 65). Looking for 90 tomorrow and dewpoints up near 70, but without a trigger no real threat of an outbreak of storms. But still could see a chance of a popup storm, with so much lift in the atmosphere.
    I got a great video of a thunderstorm with a shelf cloud that was bowing out right in front of me. I just need to find some space to post it up at (7 minutes of video).
    Have a great holiday weekend..

  23. Justin says:

    Well I agree, convection will probably be a no show. Too cloudy and capped. Anyways, some decent rainfall totals today as these bands come in off the coast. Sort of a dreary waste of a 3 day weekend.

  24. Derek Hodges says:

    I think there is a small risk of some thunderstorms next Friday

  25. Derek Hodges says:

    so much for a weekend of convection..I don’t mind rain, but I hate cold and cloudy with just light rain.

  26. Justin says:

    Probably not, the heat should shift east into the plains by next week and here we should be about average tempwise. We may even get another trough again by tihs time next week.

  27. Derek Hodges says:

    I had quite a bit of rain again today..very wet month indeed.

  28. Derek Hodges says:

    Not to play down the cold showeryness but look at what GFS just spit out.
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KTTD
    This is basically our last heat wave all over again..lol..wonder if it will keep this heat for long.

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