Brightness in The Tunnel

May 26, 2006

A pleasant surprise in the maps today in the long term…but first tonight.

Cold upper trough is overhead now…er, actually part is slipping south along the Oregon Coast and the other part is in Southern British Columbia.  I was disappointed by the lack of strong convection today, but there’s always tomorrow right?  Snow levels right now are moving back down pretty close to the passes (Gov’t Camp, Santiam, Willamette).  Last visible camera pictures showed some snow on the side of Willamette Pass.   I love camping, but between crowds & cold this weekend, somehow I don’t mind that I work over the holiday.  I’m sure that "Memorial Day" taken in late July or August will be quite a bit more comfortable don’t you think?

Tomorrow the showers come in from the northwest or even north-northwest by late in the day as a chunk of that British Columbia low slides south over us.  Expect another cold & showery day.  Then northerly flow on Sunday keeps us cool with lighter showers.

So the change is Monday and beyond.  Yesterday’s GFS was trending towards more troughiness next week right over us, while the ECMWF had more troughing offshore, giving us a weak ridge.  Now the GFS & NAM are looking like the ECMWF with more ridging developing over the West again from Monday-Thursday next week.  Looks like early summer weather will be coming back.  75-80 in this pattern is most likely.