Tough Forecasting

May 18, 2006

A wild day in the eastern 2/3rds of Oregon.  4,000+ cloud to groung lightning strikes as moist southerly flow around the hot ridge in Idaho allowed convection to pop just about everywhere over there.  Thunderstorms continue at 11pm along the Idaho border tonight.  Another round tomorrow as a more significant wave moves north.  This one will bring showers into Western Oregon tomorrow evening, probably without lightning since marine air will be thickening up…but I’ve been fooled several times this week (temp forecasts), so who knows.

The ever changing weekend forecast shows that wave moving overhead Friday night and Saturday morning giving us showers.  The change now is that cold trough that was progged to come inland dives south into California first, putting us back into SE flow aloft Sunday.  Of course that’s a great thunderstorm direction for NW Oregon.  Also, it briefly turns surface winds easterly Sunday morning/midday.  That means a one-day warmup.

So it all boils down to not much rain this weekend, basically early on and again late Sunday.  Then the cool trough finally sits over us early next week…Mark Nelsen