Big Ridge In The Works

May 11, 2006

00z models are remarkably consistent with earlier runs today, both with short term and longer term details.

Not much to talk about tonight and tomorrow, just a disorganized shortwave offshore that moves inland by morning, keeping the onshore flow going.  Our model here shows more cloud cover tomorrow, which may be correct.  I do expect significant clearing by evening and that leads us into a sunny weekend.

Strong high pressure develops over the entire Western U.S. this weekend and continues in one form or another through the rest of next week. 

Monday should be the sizzler day with a perfect setup for a one day heat wave.  An approaching wave off the coastline lowers pressure there while high pressure develops to our northeast.  So a good downslope easterly wind event (at least for 12 hours) happens at the same time a thermal trough sends 850mb temps to right around 20 deg. C.  According to the KPTV "magic forecast chart", that could push temps to 95.  That’s why I went for a 91 for now.  But easterly flow with that hot atmosphere can produce sudden warming.  Remember last May?  It hit 95 just a few days after a long stretch of cool & wet weather.

GFS & ECMWF both show a sharp, fast moving shortwave swinging north along the coast Monday night, which is generally a good setup for Cascade/Eastside thunderstorms IF there is moisture present to start with.  Not sure about this for Monday night since GFS doesn’t show much moisture to start with.  It will set off a brief, but strong marine push for Tuesday, which makes for a much cooler day, it could be only 72 that day…tough call.  00z GFS has a rebound to weak offshore flow the rest of the week for a warm up…Mark Nelsen