Messy Models & Bad Deer

May 8, 2006

A chilly night in store as skies clear and dewpoints are in the 30’s.  I don’t expect it to be any colder than the freezing night we had last week.  Then it’s on to 2-3 nice days as a "progressive" ridge develops overhead.  By progressive, I mean that it’s not a blocking ridge that sits over us for day after day.  It’ll be moving out of here by later Thursday, ushering in another chilly trough for Friday.  The good news so far this spring is that we’ve seen a succession of troughs that don’t hang around for a week at a time, so we don’t get the consistently cold & wet weather that we sometimes see in May or June here.

The first part of the title refers to "messy models".  That refers to the Saturday-Monday forecast.  Each model and even each run of the models show different solutions for this weekend.  It could be showery and 60 or sunny and 85 by Sunday.  The latest 00z information I just checked shows that once the Friday trough kicks out of here by Saturday, the next trough digs well offshore, pumping a very warm ridge up into the Intermountain Region.  If so, that would give us a quick warmup back to June or even July temps.  For now I went pretty conservative on the temps.  It could easily be 5-10 degrees warmer than what I have on the 7 Day forecast.  But there’s always tomorrow.

Oh, and the 2nd part of the title?  Remember a few weeks ago I was so proud of the blossoms on my fruit trees as spring was "springing"?  Today I went out and every single one was knawed down, a nice overnight snack for the deer!  So maybe next year…Mark