3 More Warm Days

May 2, 2006

00z models are amazingly similar through the next 7 days, which lends quite a bit of confidence to the 7 Day Forecast this evening.  Sometimes the models are all over the place, but the last couple days they’ve really zeroed in on a major change this weekend.

In the short term it’s clear from the Coastline to Idaho tonight.  Temps are running slightly higher tonight so a few degrees of warming for the morning commuters.  I took a bike ride at 11am and shorts/t-shirt just didn’t cut it.  Tomorrow should be more reasonable.  Offshore flow increases overnight too.  I notice east wind has begun this evening (all 10 mph) at the Corbett sensor.  That should increase by morning and continue until Friday morning.  The airmass doesn’t warm dramatically, so we’ll only go maybe 10-15 degrees warmer than today’s 65.  It’ll be tough to break 80 degrees this time around.

I have indoor plans this weekend, for good reason.  A tremendous marine push occurs Friday night, then a wet cold front moves in Sunday with snow levels down around 5,000′ or less.  That means 55-60 here in the metro area this time of year.

What is not clear this evening is the length of the upcoming wet period.  I notice 00z GFS & Canadian get "ridgy" or "splitty" with the 500 mb flow after 7 days.  So this may not be the usual 2-3 weeks of cool/wet May weather.  We’ll see….enjoy another sunny day…Mark