The first forecast concern tonight is the amount of marine air moving inland. Gradients at 5pm are only 2-3millibars from the coast into the valley. Not very impressive for a good push. Combine that with the last visible satellite pictures of the day showing only scattered stratus offshore and I’m thinking we may not have much thicker cloud cover tomorrow. I may revise to warmer/sunnier Wednesday if the 00z runs this evening weaken the onshore flow or the after dark fog imagery shows no movement onshore.
Strong ridging builds in behind a passing shortwave Thursday-Saturday morning, which should warm us up quite a bit again. Significant for this warm spell is the fact that no easterly wind develops. So even with a +12 or +13 850mb temp forecast for Friday, we may not get above 75 degrees. Solid easterly flow like last weekend COULD give us 80 in this warm of an atmosphere, but I think that’s unlikely.
After 2 more waves Saturday PM & Monday AM bring onshore flow back over the weekend, strong ridging returns for the middle of next week. Our unusual dry spell should last at least 7-9 more days!