Rain, Then Nicer

A very weak front moves through tonight, so weak that we may see more showers in the unstable southerly flow just ahead of the system overnight.  All models show and, satellite imagery confirms the airmass behind the front is very dry, more like a continental cold front.  If you’re from east of the Rockies, you’re familiar with rain ahead of and with cold fronts, then it dries out and sunshine returns behind.  That’s what I expect tomorrow.

Then it’s on to a warm and sunny weekend.  00z GFS & ETA both have 850 mb. temps Sunday afternoon around +8 deg. C.   That still puts us in the mid 70’s if easterly flow dips down into the city.  I expect that to occur, so 75 still looks good (I wimped out on the 76 eh?).

Enjoy the upcoming weekend, I have a day off tomorrow, so I’ll be back Monday…Mark

60 Responses to Rain, Then Nicer

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    I don’t know if this is a radar glitch or not but it shows a few glitches east of the cascades movning this way.

  2. Hanson says:

    The swirl you were talking about is it from the mixing of the air masses..cause there is cool moist coming form the west and warm dry air from the east>>>???

  3. alex says:

    gosh i really think the GFS is wrong we may hit 80 but it will feel like low 60s if we have the same wind as yesterday on sunday it felt like low to mid 60s so i can be wrong about this, i dont remember but once in the summer it was 87.0 degrees and their was lots of winds gusts up to even 50-60 mph and man it really felt like in the 60s or so as for right now 69.5 on real therometer but my computer therometer is saying 71.2

  4. Ian says:

    whats goin on with the sattelite off the central oregon coast? is that a low developing or what. wierd.

  5. Ian says:

    up to 66.8 at 11:30am here in longview. thats about 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. and my sisters thermo said 80 for yesterdays high. could we maybe *officially* hit 80? it bugs me how all the weather reports are being so conservative with the temps lately

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    that particular model switched wind to NE to. I will check all the others after school but I have to get ready now..

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    I guess for now I may have to bump my forecast up a few degrees. I only checked GFS this morning, I don’t have time to look at anything else. Its up to a +15. That would be 85-88 or so. But I got to look at the others before I decide anything.

  8. Ian says:

    got out on the columbia today. could use a few more weekends like this one, man it felt good. even rode in my buddies Jeep from Longview to Kalama with the top off and it felt good. 75 is what we got up here on the personal temp.

  9. Justin says:

    Warmer weather is nice, but I’m personally rooting for another no triple digit summer, its been nice for the past couple of years. But I’d agree that its been a long winter, even with my measly 3.5 inches of snow, some consistent sun would be nice.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    That mode is clean air mode, I don’t know why they use negatives but its a extra sensitive mode for when not much is going on, or is used in snow situations too sometimes.

  11. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah, I check a few others. I usually look at unysis, GFS, ECMWF, or anything else I find that I can understand. Sometimes the Canadian too but not that much. I’m just rooting for some good warm weather is all. As somebody pointed out earlier, though low seventies, it didn’t feel that way with the wind.

  12. alex says:

    someone look at the wunderground radar and explain to me why is their negitaves???

  13. Justin says:

    Once again, the models change like the clock. There’s no reason to lean on everything the GFS says. I don’t even pay much attention to them past the 96 hour, unless something big catches somebody’s attention. BTW, derek, do you check any other forecasting models? GFS is usually fairly accurate for us, but there are a lot of other good models out there with even better data.
    There’s a good site showing them, some may be a little hard to read, but they usually are all fairly detailed and accurate pre 96hr.

  14. Derek Hodges says:

    I understand being somewhat conservative, but new GFS came out and its +13 for Friday now. If they don’t want to forecast the 80 or 82 it will probably be fine, but I think just 70 is crazy. Today was a +8 or so and we hit 72.7 at my house. So a +13 should be at least 80.

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    And when I said if they say that..I don’t quite see them as that hot anymore. The highest I saw today was +16 down by Medford which is probably a 86 or so down there. If it stays that way anyway..

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