Still Wet

March 15, 2006

Big upper-level trough is slowly edging towards the Pacific Northwest coastline tonight.  One wave went through this morning and a 2nd this evening.  The 3rd arrives for the morning commute.

Another cool & unstable airmass arrives by tomorrow evening.  I expect this should give us a showers/hailshowers/thunderstorms day for Friday.

Evening models are slightly warmer again for Friday and Saturday, so snow levels should remain above 1,500′.

What to do about the extended forecast?  That’s the question tonight.   Models are all over the place.  ECMWF continues to be the mildest and driest through early next week, but at least the 00z GFS has come around to drier.  So I’ve kept the forecast dry Sunday-Tuesday and thrown in rain for Wednesday.  That was based on the ECMWF.  I would say the big story long-range is a warmup to average or above-average temps.