Chilly March Continues

Pretty well-defined pattern the next 4 days.  The big picture shows a large trough of low pressure diving down into the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday.  It progresses east and is centered right over the Northwest by Friday afternoon.  One weak shortwave moves through tomorrow, the stronger one with colder air behind arrives Thursday. 

The ECMWF never lets 850mb temps get below -4 C.  But the 00z GFS & 00z ETA drop us to -8 by Friday night.  That’s cold enough to bring snow to 1000′ with regular precip, and lower IF we get heavy showers again.  We all know how dependent snow level is on precipitation intensity (remember last week?).  A forecast 500′ snow level can easily be snow on the beaches with heavy, sustained precip with no wind.  So I’ll be watching this pretty closely.  My gut feeling is it’ll be tough to get sticking snow below 1000′, but it’s definitely a possibility again.

After that, all models show a change to warmer late March weather (finally 60’s?) next week.  The main difference is that the 00z GFS & Canadian bring one last system through later Sunday or Monday, the ridging.  The ECMWF doesn’t move that system over us so the warmer/dry weather begins Sunday.  I went with that forecast as you can see from the 7 Day.  We should have a much better idea in another 2 model runs.

I’m trying to think positively, hoping that the cool March so far means we’ll get warmer than normal in April or May???  I suppose that’s better than the opposite (last year’s warm start, then 2 months of cool/wet).

Mark

100 Responses to Chilly March Continues

  1. Ashley Watson says:

    Mark,
    Have you noticed the bitter cold in juneau alaska?????!!!!!!! The high was only 8 degress yesterday a full 29 degrees below normal. What is up with that. Not that you need my approval or anything but I think you
    guys have done a pretty good jog last week at forecasting the weather.
    Kudos!!!!
    Ashley Watson
    p.s. a few days ago you spoke about a deformation zone. is there a book
    out there or some rescource material I can get to find more about those
    kind of strange weather events. Your average weather book in the library
    doesn’t have enough information.

  2. Derek Hodges says:

    43.5 here now, its actually falling pretty quickly but that will change once the rain lightens. I’m expecting very heavy t-storms with hail/lightning/sleet/rain/graupel/snow on Friday. I mention snow b/c some of those could mix in during the very heavy showers. The more sunbreaks the more vigerous the showers. Looks fun. Basically any of those could happen so get ready.

  3. Camas Mom says:

    Hi Guys! It’s raining pretty good out there…just got home from girls’ night and it is raining solid

  4. kirk says:

    41.2 here at 1000ft

  5. Derek Hodges says:

    Probably rain, this is a warm system. My temp is rising. Friday I hope we get a Severe T-storm warning LOL

  6. Andrew says:

    well, i am not at the top, but at 900 feet with 41 degrees.

  7. Benjamin says:

    I think it would be kind of neat to have someone report temps at the very top of the west hills…1300 feet…and see what type of precip falls around that area.

  8. Benjamin says:

    I think it would be kind of neat to have someone report temps at the very top of the west hills…1300 feet…and see what type of precip falls around that area.

  9. kirk says:

    I like the new auto update feature on the NWS radar loop.

  10. kirk says:

    Tomorrow morning we will have had snow on the ground here for a week!! Granted it is just patchy now.

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