He’s Back!

That would be me of course…Drew needed some time off after that exhausting week!  Sorry for the delay this evening, but vacation is slowly wearing off apparently.

Nice cold trough offshore this evening, several lightning strikes off of North Bend and Brookings, they will see some flashing down there tonight.

We are moving into the time of year (warm season) when inland lightning becomes more common than coastal or offshore lightning.  That’s because we start to get warmer (slightly) days while the atmosphere overhead is just as cold as wintertime.  That makes airmasses more unstable than just one month ago.  Of course once we get closer to May, the strong sunshine heats the lower atmosphere much better and then that instability brings the thunderstorms.

Either way Tuesday should be an active weather day assuming we get plenty of sunbreaks inbetween the showers.

Long term:  Models (00z Canadian, GFS, 12z ECMWF) are hinting at at least brief ridging the beginning of next week.  That would bring us our first 60 degree weather of the season!  A bit late, but not unheard of.  Usually by the 18th of March we have had a run of 60+ degree weather with maybe a 70 thrown in.  Not this year!

70 Responses to He’s Back!

  1. i want snow says:

    whats the website for the GFS

  2. andrew says:

    Maybe above 1000-1500 feet. I really don’t think it will be cold enough for sticking snow below that. Maybe with a heavy shower we could see snow mix in down to the 500 foot level, but it still won’t stick. The models are just to warm at this point.

  3. Camas Mom says:

    So, are you fellas still thinking snow in the higher elevations?

  4. kirk says:

    The only Sylvan hill around here is above the zoo on Hyw 26. Like you said it is 760ft.

  5. Andrew says:

    random question, but where is sylvan hill? i saw that was at 1200 feet, but the only sylvan hill i can think of is the sylvan overpass at 760 feet.

  6. Derek Hodges says:

    My forecast. Some things like unysis and NAM, and MRF as far as I know, I don’t know how to find that one, still suggest snow. Others like GFS and ECMWF aren’t so sure.
    What I think is Thursday Afternoon through Saturday will be showery, especially Friday. I think we will have more precip than the models say do to their misunderstanding of the lowest 2000ft. So heavy showers, maybe lightning and hail, or sleet or graupel or anything like that. Possibly even brief snow but no sticking below maybe 700 feet during the heavy showers. Maybe 500ft briefly but thats it. Right now that is the feeling I have, now maybe I wake up tomorrow and the models change their mind but I just don’t see it being super cold, but more so there is NO consistency in them. But expect numerous heavy showers and probably hail in a lot of places. I still am hoping but again I don’t want a mix.

  7. -100F says:

    I am watching to see if the GFS changes back to the very cold temps it showed..

  8. kirk says:

    Dream on the next school day you miss will be spring break!! No sticking snow below 1000ft!! After this wanabe cold air passes this weekend say hello to wet mild spring weather. YUCK!! Bring on 70’s and sun.

  9. Justin says:

    Yeah, Mark said some good ridging uilds and we may finally get into the 60’s. The first time in several weeks that the models haven’t shown cold at least somewhere out there for us, so I may finally be inclined to say that this is the last blast of winter, but hey, at least it looks like a blast, albeit brief.

  10. Andrew says:

    not to change the whole topic on snow here, but just thought i would mention that models are showing a large warming trend about 1 week out. If everything holds up we could have temps upper 60’s-low 70’s.

  11. Andrew says:

    Looks like kgw is talking about snow now, at least down to 1000 feet for the time being. “Thursday’s system will be followed by colder air, which will allow snow to fall as low as 1,000 feet Thursday night and Friday morning”

  12. Justin says:

    Well the discussion doesn’t add anything anyways, guess we’re gonna have to wait until tomorrow for new input.

  13. Michael says:

    LOL they must not know they have a bunch of weather freaks hanging on their every word.

  14. Jerry says:

    I guess it takes 20 mins to proof read it….

  15. Jerry says:

    Well the NWS still playing it safe as usual…

  16. Michael says:

    It just came out, they say basically the same thing. No matter when they issue a forecast, they always say 8:30, today it was 8:50 when it came out.

  17. Jerry says:

    I know but come on, its not like they arnt looking at the weather 24/7 or should be. If i was late at my job for things as much as they were I would be fired lol.

  18. Michael says:

    I feel your pain! That just means they are having truoble with details and stuff
    about what is going to happen

  19. Jerry says:

    The NWS cant do its job… Every discussion is always late! lol

  20. -100F says:

    Agree with what Justin basically said, I think it may be colder during the night but we will probably also have less moisture. If the air is unstable enough it may trigger some showers, maybe as snow.

  21. Justin says:

    I’ll go with a chance of snow for Thursday night into Friday, occasonal showers, maybe as snow or mixed heavily with, during the day Friday. High 42, low 30. I think our chances are about as good as last week, this seems to be still yet another stronger cold airmass, but still no accumulations above an inch under 500ft. Friday evening-night or Saturday we could have another shot at half inch to inch accumulations. The GFS isn’t as consistent as last time, but the other models have been and the GFS can’t seem to decipher whether it wants the front to pull it in behind it or not. Either wya it will bhe pretty cold up aloft, cold enoguh for at least a snow shower or two down here, but sticknig snow is the question. I think we WILL see a setup like we had on Friday, but like on riday the temps will likely be a little warm during the day for anything, and it may be too dry come nighttime.

  22. Andrew says:

    last update i promise lol…. showing accumulating snow at least in the coast range, so those of you around 1200+ feet can now start to expect some sticking snow.
    Thursday Night: Snow showers. Snow accumulation 2 inches. Probability of measurable precipitation 90 percent. South wind 18 mph. Low 33.

  23. Andrew says:

    also, at the 500+ foot level they show highs only hitting 39-41 degrees.

  24. Andrew says:

    as said earlyier, the NOAA is started to rotate that colder air further south. Rememeber about this time last week when everyone was saying the snow level would be 1000-1500 feet?
    Thursday night: Showers. Snow level 1000 feet after midnight. Lows 35 to 40. South wind 10 to 20 mph.
    Friday: Showers. Snow level 1000 feet. Highs in the mid to upper 40s.
    Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Snow level 1000 feet. Lows 30 to 35.

  25. Michael says:

    What do you think of the situation onf Friday Derek?

%d bloggers like this: