Wind & Cold

Another exciting Friday now with good weather and good shows on TV (BSG of course).

Very impressive downslope windstorm is slowly waning tonight.  Rumor says there were some spots with gusts near 70 mph in Camas.  I know it hit 65 mph at the top of the West Hills.  Peak gust at PDX was 56 mph, strongest since the January 2000 windstorm.

A quiet weekend (and Monday) in store for us.

Now, what everyone wants to know…what about next week?

Well, I just adjusted my 7 Day based on the 00z Canadian, 00z GFS, and 00z ETA.  Of course as mentioned (frequently) the GFS is horrible at this stuff beyond 7 days, but now we’re watching the 4-6 day period and all the models have some sort of northerly flow developing.  Looks like a sharp, but not too wet, cold front moves through Monday night.  We are left with a cold & mainly dry airmass Tuesday and Wednesday.  00z GFS & Canadian give us a good blast of arctic air the end of next week.  We’ll see about that, but it seems prudent to lower temps quite a bit starting Tuesday.  As for snow, I still don’t see a good setup, unless we get some sort of development offshore (which sometimes happens with only a few days notice).  This could just end up being a late season cold & dry blast.  Also, this time of year, even if we drop to 15 in the outlying areas at night, temperatures still make it up to 40 during the day because of the stronger sunshine and longer days.

Should be interesting to watch though eh?  Have a good weekend and enjoy the last of the mild weather for awhile…Now discuss amongst yourselves.

47 Responses to Wind & Cold

  1. Derek Hodges says:

    Its unlikely that if Seattle had a blizzard that the Portland area wouldn’t get something good to. Were not that far apart. The NWS office in Portland is probably still to nervous after all of their past mishaps to say to much about it.

  2. Rick says:

    What a roller coaster the past 48 hours, huh? Up to the top (cold) crashing to the bottom. (mild) Soaring to the top again. I hope this is the longest uphill ride I been on until Wednesday and then a nice 10 mile ride at a very slow speed on an even keel until it finally heads down and we have to get off the ride. Anyway, the KPTV 7-day has been changed to a colder ‘regime’ starting Tuesday again. Many signs pointing to a major event at the end of the week. (anyone want the end of the week to start in about 15 minutes?) This past Wednesday it was supposed to be next Tuesday. The next day made it Wednesday….we are being strung along very nicely, maybe our determination will reward us. Blizzard potential in Seattle at the end of this week? That about as far from conservative that the NWS ever gets. Could you imagine, a blizzard in Seattle the middle of February.

  3. Mike says:

    I just watched KGW and KATU news and they both say there may be snow starting friday and lasting through sunday. This could be the wone we’ve all been waiting for!

  4. Benjamin Monjay says:

    A blizzard would be nice. The snowstorm in 1995 dumped 10″ here in Forest Grove along with 30 MPH winds. I was stuck in Oakland because PDX was closed.

  5. Ben says:

    Take a look at Mark’s personal weather page. I’ve been following his ECMWF KPTV 850mb graphic, and it is increasingly cold…much colder than last run. Starting all on Tuesday now.

  6. Daver says:

    Hey all, welcome the newbie to the site. šŸ™‚
    I’ve been an avid reader of this blog for the past few months. Thanks to Mark for giving all of us weather lovers an outlet for discussion!
    If you check KATU’s updated 10 day, they’ve got mid 40’s throughout the remainder of the forecast. But it seems as if even they’re skeptical, because they have rain mixed with snow on the graphics for Friday through Sunday! Here’s to hoping! I love the snow AND I’ve got a huge Biology test on Friday!! BRING ON THE SNOW!!

  7. Ben says:

    I sure hope that all things come together to give us the BLIZZARD we’ve been waiting so long for. I think it could happen. Remember back in 1995 on Valentine’s Day we had a major snowstrom? Will history repeat?

  8. Derek Hodges says:

    True. In this kind of situation he may post something just to keep us updated. I think at the very least we should have a dusting of snow or something if things don’t work out right.

  9. Sarah N. says:

    Derek, it’s the weekend šŸ˜‰ Drew is probably doing the weather tonight. Hopefully he has some good news.

  10. Derek Hodges says:

    Yeah, at least its within the seven day period otherwise I would put no stock in it. I wonder what Mark will say tonight.

  11. Boring Larry says:

    Nice verbage (from Seattle)here!!: BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS…IT LOOKS LIKE AN ARCTIC FRONT
    MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
    AGAIN…DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED…HAVE PLAYED THE
    CONSERVATIVE ROUTE. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY
    BECAUSE…IF THE GFS IS CORRECT…THERE WILL NOT ONLY BE A
    SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND SNOW EVENT THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
    BUT ALSO A HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD EVENT. AT ANY RATE…EXPECT COLDER
    WEATHER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

  12. Hanson says:

    But Remeber there alot FACTORS that could ruin that.

  13. Derek Hodges says:

    Wow!! Thats awesome. A blizzard huh. I have been waiting for a while. I’m so excited now!!

  14. Hanson says:

    Even wind look at the forecast discussions in Seattle. Long Term.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=sew&sid=sew&pil=afd

  15. Derek Hodges says:

    Awesome. With that said. The cold is coming, and the moisture is coming…Does this remind anybody of two years ago? I don’t know but it could be if we get a strong enough low

  16. Hanson says:

    Yeah..But remeber those things can change very very dramatically, but the past few days it has been getting colder and colder

  17. Derek Hodges says:

    Isn’t the red line temperature? It goes off the bottom. Oh well, I will just take your word for it. So really, it says highs between 10 and 20??

  18. Hanson says:

    Those are for 0-8 days for Pdx and Sea

  19. Derek Hodges says:

    How do you look at these meteograms? That is kind of crazy. Yeah though I normally don’t trust NWS they have snow or rain/snow for several days even in the heart of Portland. It seems like more people are starting to agree with this

  20. Dan says:

    Have looked at all of the latest model info,and have come to the comclusion that the upcoming weather pattern is becoming eerily similar to one that hit this area in early March of 1960. During that situation an arctic front dropped in from the north. the Willamette Valley received over 1 foot of snow. And the Columbia River Gorge received nearly two feet. For several days temperatures hovered near freezing during the day,dropping back to the twenties at night. The Gorge was much colder. No guarentee this will happen like that this time. But everything seems to be coming together for some kind of cold/snow event at the end of this week. By the way,somebody eariler in the week commented on what a dream team Mark and Rod would be. If memory serves me right,this already was. Kptv bought out Kpdx. Rod Hill was the chief meteorologist at Kptv,Mark Nelson did the same for Kpdx. Kptv merged the two news staffs into one. So for several months Mark and Rod alternated doing the weather. Then Rod moved over to Katu when Rob Marciano went to cable on CNN. Enjoy the cold and snow,and thanks Mark for letting us discuss the weather.

  21. Hanson says:

    That’s on the meteograms though…

  22. Hanson says:

    I wonder why GFS is forcastingf highs around 10-20 for Thursday-Saturday time frame, isn’t that a little extreme for the Northwest for this time of year?

  23. Kirk says:

    OK I’m excited now the NWS is saying highs in the 30’s and lows in the 20’s at my house!! Possibility of snow starting on Thurs only a 30-40% chance but it is early for precip predictions. Mark are you out there we need you man!

  24. Jerry says:

    One thing that will be hard to pass is the amount of hours of sunlight we have currently. Its going to get hard to keep the temp highs under 40 unless some good cold air comes and some of the models are forcasting this. If this were to happen in early January it would be insane. As it is turning out right now it seems that this hasnt happen in years!

  25. Ryan says:

    9cm or no that translates into 3.5″ of the white stuff. I’ll take it! It starts overnight the 17th and peaks on the 19th. It amazes me we can predict such finite details.

  26. Hanson says:

    THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN EXCELLENT PATTERN FOR SNOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LOTS OF COLD AIR OVER THE AREA…A STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES FROM SOUTHERN BC…ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND AND TO THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA. THIS IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH NOT AS AN EXTREME AN EVENT. FOR NOW WENT FOR CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE ZONES BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE KEEPING ON EYE ON THE END OF THE WEEK. RUTHFORD.

  27. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey I just noticed something else a little bit ago. http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t12z_3/PDX_1.gif
    At this address it says its GFS for Portland and if you look at the bottom it says snow depth. And it goes up to 9 cm, now thats not a lot but it is snow so thats interesting. If you hold the mouse still on the one that says snow depth it might give you an option to zoom in on your comp. However if there is nothing there then it updated since I looked at it, haha.

  28. Aaron says:

    Anyone whos been around these parts knows we get “weather” coming and going in to and from the winter months… As one who’s also watched these weather models for years, I know they can change 180deg. at the drop of a dime… (even only 3 days out). But who can deny the “general” pattern the models have been turning out now for the last week… Ridge out in the Pac. & storms out of the NNW… So what I think is, that pattern will stay in place for a time allowing several opprotunities for low level snow. (things set in motion tend to stay in motion?) let’s hope for a little “weather inertia” for all us snow lovers…
    I remember late Feb. early Mar. of 81 or 82… it was snowing for 3+ days & at the end of it, had 26in. of snow in the back yard… (in Gresham)
    Now that would be very cool.

  29. Derek Hodges says:

    The problem with a lot of the meteorologists around her, not Mark, is that they are all embarrassed from past mistakes or are conservative. A lot of them are so conservative they won’t tell you something is coming until it is upon you and to late to do anything about it. All the models I looked at still seem to support cold or arctic air here so don’t worry it still looks like its coming! Bring on the snow, especially for all of the people at my school who think I am crazy when I say it will!!

  30. Keith says:

    Its not over ; }…
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    830 AM PST SAT FEB 11 2006
    .LONG TERM…A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
    ON MON WILL DROP SOUTH OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON MON NIGHT AND TUE.
    THIS WILL COOL THINGS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AS WELL AS BRINGING SOME
    SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUMMET ON TUE DROPPING BELOW
    1000 FT BY TUE NIGHT. WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
    TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP
    OVER NORTHWEST CANADA ON TUE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
    AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH WED AND THU. WHILE THIS AIR MASS WAS MARINE
    IN ORIGIN AND INITIALLY FAIRLY WARM…THE TIME IT SPENDS AS A STABLE
    LAYER OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW IT TO COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE
    IT REACHES WA/OR. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP
    THROUGH THE WEEK ESPECIALLY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WED
    NIGHT THROUGH FRI. RUTHFORD.

  31. Kirk says:

    Ben I had just looked at KPTVs 7 day forecast. The NWS is sounding a lot more optimistic for cold weather. I read Spokane,Seattle & Portland’s forecast discussion and they are all still talking about colder weather. NWS is saying snow level below 1000ft Tues night but high temps still look to warm. I think everyone is being cautious about forecasting really cold weather.

  32. Hanson says:

    Even the meteograms are saying by 17-19th highs should be only 20-25, but you know how they like to change..

  33. Michael says:

    The 12z GFS run is bringing the Polar Vortex straight towards us. I can’t believe it! If it verifies, we’ll have temperatures more than 20 degrees below normal!

  34. Sarah N. says:

    Yeah, I think Stephanie Kralevich generated the new 7 day from new info. It corroborates with weather.com/intellicast.com’s extended forecast as well. Yesterday weather.com’s extended forecast had highs near 40 and lows in the 20s but that since has changed this morning to highs in the upper 40s to near 50 and lows in the upper 30s. Hmmm…but it seems as though the chance for cold weather extends beyond the near future so all hope is not lost thusfar.

  35. charlie says:

    The models will keep going switching, but the new GFS 12z models showed 10-15 degrees below normal for a longer stretch of time. It is showing moisture from friday on now. It would probably switch again from being cold to not as cold. The cold temperatures will come but will the ositure come too. My bet is that it will at the end of the week. If there is a chance of snow,Kptv should do the comparison of forecasts like before

  36. Rick says:

    When I woke up this morning I was hesitating on whether or not I wanted to look at the blog first or the extended first as we all know by now how the model giveth and how it teareth from our grasp or hopes. So I went to this site first, surely someone has looked at the updated models…the first two entries crushed my hopes, warmer and rain. I went to the KPTV 7 day and it has warmed up quite a bit, but then in detective like manner I started pouring through the models and it still looks like cold is the theme. All 4 GFS runs, the Canadian, and ECMWF show the trough and NW to Norhery flow. So maybe someone else at KPTV generated the ‘new’ 7 day. The NWS, all three NW offices as of 8:30am, are all talking cold. Probably dry, but temps ‘much colder’ than normal. So if there is a model out there that is bucking the trend, let me know.

  37. Ben says:

    Kirk, where are you getting your information? Everything I’ve seen shows it to be colder then the previous runs.

  38. Sarah N. says:

    Darn. I guess it was too good to be true this time around (as it pretty much has been throughout “winter”)! Those damn weather models keep teasing us then yanking the possibilities away. It’s looking more and more like we probably will not see anything at all–perhaps just a MINOR cooldown (highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows just above freezing); nothing conducive to snowfall.
    *Here’s hoping the models change suddenly again for the better (i.e., colder and snowy!) within the next few updates*

  39. Kirk says:

    The 7 day has already changed for the worse. Saturday the snow flake has been removed and mid 40s for daytime highs dose not excite me much. We need highs in the 30s lows in the 20s. Hey I can dream cant I?

  40. Tyler says:

    Good point Derek on the storm on New Years a couple years ago. I remember having to work that day and being rather surprised waking up to 2″ of snow on the ground already. I made it to work fine, only to leave my car there as it was buried under a total of 8″ of snow. There my car sat for two weeks until all the ice/snow melted. We need something like that again, though seems unlikely this late in the game. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a good snow though!
    Tyler

  41. Derek Hodges says:

    Hey thats what I said earlier, makes me feel better about my future as a meteorologist. haha Yeah its really getting interesting. One thing Mark mentioned in his post was how often you don’t know when a low pressure will come in until days before. I am pretty sure that the new years day snow storm two years ago was something just like that. I don’t remember anybody calling for that before it occured but if they did it would have been within a day or two. You can be pretty sure of the cold in the middle of the week but you can’t be TO sure beyond that. Although it does kind of seem like this may finally be what we have been waiting for. I guess now we wait and see

  42. Ben says:

    Bring on the cold, snowy weather…man I hope it really happens this time.

  43. Rick says:

    Drving home tonight at 5:30 and looking off to the west, seeing the setting flaming inferno otherwise known as the sunm had me thinking, ‘Wish this was happening 30 days ago’, but beggars can’t be chosers. Maybe after all of this we will be able to say that after February 16th, 2006 we did indeed have a daytime high that didn’t make it above freezing! šŸ™‚ (and it lasted for a whole week)
    I was looking somewhere (cant’ remember as I am continually redirecting to find exactly what I want to hear, COLD!) they were mentioning the ECMWF as digging the trough futher offshore thus creating a very deep low along the coasT? Anyone else read this? This would be a classic snow setup, cold air to the north and east with overrunnig moisture, but Mark did not mention that model tonight, maybe it fizzled out. Although for the most part the GFS has done a really good job 0-5 days out unlike it’s time frame beyond that, so lets hope the set up for Friday and the really good stuff makes it’s way here.
    One thing I know for sure….there is no way it snows unless it’s cold enough, one ingredient looks like it’s going in the pot, just need to add water now.

  44. Keith says:

    This will be interesting to watch… Weather can change at any minut so it could end up being sun or could be 4 inches ; }… Keith

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