More Wind Ahead

We are in the middle of a minor "downslope windstorm" tonight.  Strong Canadian high pressure is moving down out of Alberta.  It’s not excessively cold, but it’s dry and covers a huge area.  Plus the easterly flow is so deep that strong winds are going right up and over the Cascades instead of just through the Gorge.  In this situation wind is as strong or even stronger out over the valley and metro area than in the Columbia River Gorge.  I notice at 8pm the wind is gusting over 40 mph at Vancouver and Portland, but only about 35 in the west end of the Gorge at Rooster Rock.  PDX-DLS gradients are rapidly increasing tonight (9mb around 9pm) and should peak out around 12 mb by daybreak.  So widespread easterly gusts 45-50 in town are likely through midday Friday before things die down.  Eastern Clark County (specifically Battleground & Hockinson) tend to get hit hard in this setup so I expect a few gusts to 60 mph there.

The NWS has a high wind warning out for the metro area and western Gorge.  I think those Clark county spots may verify with higher gusts, but the Gorge definitely won’t get that strong.  They really get nailed during those long spells of cold temps and continuous east wind, not in this pattern

Much calmer again this weekend and Monday.

Finally (at least in my opinion) models seem to be settling down some for the Tuesday-Thursday period.  No model after 12z this morning has shown arctic air moving south, just cooler temps and some moisture.  The 12z ECMWF, 00z GEM, 00z GFS all try to dig more energy offshore and close off a low the middle of next week.  That would give us SOME wet weather but no snow levels below 1500′ or so.  Of course the 00z GFS has much colder air JUST BEYOND the 7 day forecast.  Notice how it does that all winter?  What is it with that model?  So for now I’m keeping the 7 Day forecast pretty tame.

32 Responses to More Wind Ahead

  1. Kirk says:

    I cant say it enough, I love you guys. It is so fun to see other people get so excited for snow!! All I can say is don’t forget how we are always let down in the end. Portland has got to be the hardest northern city to get snow. That darn Pacific keeps us to mild. On that note bring on the northerly flow with a slight curl over the ocean for some cold snowy days……….

  2. Jacob says:

    I’m going for whatever Mark says, he always has the best weather forcasts in our are and what he says is going to happen, theres a 99% chance it will go the way he says.

  3. Keith says:

    Matt on 8 is going to talk about a winter blast for next week… Im happy the other locals see the same thing we see…

  4. Laura says:

    Did anyone just see Rod Hill’s forecast? He too has now changed it for next week with highs in the 40’s and on/off precip. His weather forecast ended with “things are going to get colder next week” with a twinkle in his eye. Glad to see that Mark is putting some snowflakes in the forecast, too, for next week! I’m really looking for an excuse to dust off my sled!!!

  5. Keith says:

    WHOOHOOO MARK YOU MADE MY DAY LOL!!! I HOPE THE 7 DAY WONT CHANGE MUCH UNLESS ITS FOR THE BETTER ; }… charlie was right Rod did change the temps from 50 to 40s… Bring it on… Im going to watch frosty the snowman tonight LOL…

  6. Rick says:

    Mark has jumped on board. The 7 day has just been ‘modified arctically’….Tuesday on…the excitement is working itself into a frenzy, 26 blogs since last night. Could it be that everything is coming together? What a difference a day makes here in the great PAC NW. Lets keep the flip-floppin to a minimum for the next 24 hours. The answer to Ben, ‘you betcha it is…’
    Let ‘er rip.

  7. Derek Hodges says:

    All right I think all the new model runs look much better than yesterday. Some of them do have pretty cold air, some just moderately cold. The canadian model had a low dropping out of Alaska I think, as well as the GFS in perticular has much colder than it did yesterday in the 5-7 day time frame. Doesn’t mean anything is certain, remember how bad all the model runs looked yesterday? So lets keep our fingers crossed that it works out right. I mean you never know when a surprise low could come in and give us some snow if we get our cold air.

  8. Ben says:

    Any bets? Will we get snow??

  9. Keith says:

    This is cool… The other weather sites starting to say snow… Check this out http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=97267 Look at tuesday night…

  10. Matthew says:

    I’m convinced it’s coming. I just saw the latest AVN and they are bringing in the northerly flow Monday night and it’s going strong through the end of the run. Also the new MRF this morning is showing a chance of some bitter cold artic air moving in towards the end of next week and weekend. AND towards the end of the ten day trend it’s showing a low developing around the mouth of the Columbia, oh this is getting good.. LOL
    I too have noticed that local news delays any word about cold or snow in this area, but also the models flip/flop so much with cold weather in this area I understand as well.

  11. Keith says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    230 PM PST FRI FEB 10 2006
    LONG TERM…(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) EXTENDED MODELS COMING
    TOGETHER IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
    OVER THE PACIFIC AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. TROUGH
    OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH NEWEST ECMWF SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER
    LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST BY WED AM. UK SIMILAR WITH
    LOW…BUT NOT INTENSITY. THE GFS IS TRAILING THE GROUP TIME-WISE
    WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IN GENERAL…MODELS SHOW THE
    UPPER FLOW SWINGING OUT OVER THE OCEAN…BAROCLINICITY DEVELOPS…A
    SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE OREGON COAST AND GIVES WEST SIDE OF
    CASCADES A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. NOT MUCH COLD AIR TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH
    THAT SYSTEM. LATER IN TIME…TROUGH-I-NESS AND NORTHERLY FLOW
    CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS ALONG COAST LATE IN THE
    WEEK FOR MORE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND BETTER EAST-WEST GRADIENTS FOR
    COLD AIR INTRUSION…BUT COLD ENOUGH? IN GENERAL WE SHOULD GET SOME
    PRECIP FROM THIS PATTERN AND WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE WEEK. KWE

  12. Ben says:

    I guarantee you that the people over at KATU are just a step behind us weather geeks and have not updated their forecast to include the cold and hopefully snowy weather that we are hoping/know will come.

  13. charlie says:

    If you have watched channel 2 news yesterday, or check out the 10 day trend page, it is saying 50s and sunny at the end of next week. I agree with you about the ECMWF model but maybe Rod Hill sees something. I want cold air too!

  14. Keith says:

    WOW IM CROSSING MY FINGERS , LEGS , EYES ECT LOL… CHARLIE WHY DO YOU SAY THAT?? DID YOU SEE CH 2 WEATHER?? I JUST LOOKED AND THE 5 DAY ECMWF KEEPS GETTING COLDER… ; )

  15. charlie says:

    here comes the cold..I think Rod hill is going to change his 10 day trend from yesterday with temperatures in the 50s at the end of next week to 40s or maybe 30s. Mark Nelson and Matt Z. saw this coming

  16. JN says:

    It seems like many of us want to know how to read these models. Perhaps Mark can give us an official lesson. I’ve been studying meteorology and models for years and can give a hint. 1000 mb is the surface presser gradient. The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the wind, in a cross direction. 500 mb is the upper air dirctin. wear they are closest to each other is approx. wear the jet streem is. Maybe Mark has a better way of explaining it, but most air flow models are configured in this way.
    Because many of us want to put our two cents in forcasting, hears mine… I was the first to mention this cold/cool spell on this blog and have remained skeptical until now. Almost all the models I like, seem to be agreeing more on how this is going to happen. They have pushed the event back, but I think we can be less skeptical as the cold/cool event has progressed into a much more accurate time frame. I’d say the first wave isn’t going to bring much snow or rain and the air isn’t particularly cold. However, it looks dry at the surface, which could give us snow based on evaporative cooling, but only if we get more precip. Then what most models expect. Than maby record cold for a few days but mostly dry. What stands out beyond (in the 8-16 day time frame) is that the high presser keeps locked in off shore and just kinda floats around; giving us general northerly flows to one degree or another for as far as the models go. So if we don’t get snow this time around, it looks likly we will have more opportunities in the next few weeks.

  17. Dan says:

    Here in Salem at about 1PM it,s about 60 degrees with a light North wind. I am not sorry to miss getting those East winds. I think it is given we are going to be much cooler next week. The current models show a big cooling trend starting next Tuesday. However,it also looks dry next week. So probably just sunny and brisk. But the interesting thing about weather is that just when you think that you have it figured out what is going to happen. It does something else entirely different. So we wait and see.

  18. Ben says:

    The URL to the GFS I am looking at is http://wxmaps.org/pix/pdxgfs.png and http://wxmaps.org/pix/pdxgfsb.png take a look for yourself to see what I am talking about.

  19. Michael says:

    Actually… the 06z and 12z GFS are great for cold air here. They don’t bring an Arctic airmass, but a very cold one (cold enough for snow) with thicknesses below 530dm and 850mb temps at or below -6°C.
    Furthermore, the NAM brings it in even earlier than the GFS, and colder too. According to the NAM, the cold front drops south through Portland by Monday afternoon bringing a chance of rain changing to snow.
    This is, in my opinion, getting more exciting as we get closer instead of more disappointing.

  20. Jerry says:

    Ben- Can you give the details of the New GFS.
    I think it would be fun if people who feel up to it to make an educated guess on the chain of weather events over the next 3-9 days and what they think will happen. I love to hear other peoples thoughts on this on-going excitement.

  21. Ben says:

    New GFS looks increasingly cold even in the 0-8 day, which is usually realtively accurate!!!

  22. Dmitri K says:

    Latest MRF-MOS tabulated forecast from the National Weather Service finally shows Arctic air coming into the Northwest for Feb. 16-17, though not too cold. Some forecast high/low pairs for different cities: Portland 40/31, McMinnville 39/27, Scappoose 38/25, Bellingham WA 36/23, Hoquiam WA 38/26, Olympia WA 39/21, Everett WA 37/26, Seattle 38/28. Precipitation is also forecast at the same time, so its pretty much calling for snow, at least a rain/snow mix. We’ll see.

  23. Randall says:

    Cory, there are several models all of which are accessed by the local meteorologists. The KATU site is just showing the 0Z GFS out 192 hours which is one of the models that Mark sees. Be careful with the GFS; it loves to show cold air outbreaks 7 or 8 days out that never materialize. The weather will turn cooler, I think that is a given; all models agree to atleast that! Weather it will be cold is yet to be seen and the GFS is the only model that shows Arctic air (see the 12Z GFS too which is even colder than the 0Z GFS). I personally don’t trust the GFS on cold air unless:
    1. it is backed up with the ECMWF
    2. only out 4-5 days.
    Randall

  24. cory says:

    Yeah katu model is strong with the flow from the north and those who have looked at it look at the 15 through the 18th see how the jet shifts over to the backside of the hudson bay that folks is very cold air the brings it straight back over us very interesting Like to hear what Marks in put is. and Mark do you ever use That model Katu Has

  25. John Davis says:

    Yeah, I’m old enought to remember Bob Lynott. He was cool. He always pulled for Portland snow too. And can yout believe how good he was at making those grease pencil dotted lines around the pressure systems on his weather board? I finally had the chance to shake his hand one time at a book signing at the Oregon State Fair in the ’80’s. O.K. the current weather: It’s my birthday weekend. I’m shutting down my weather fervor and going out there to roam around the region in this gorgeous MILD mid winter weather. Oh course I’ll try on the weather hat again next week. Maybe by then the models will be lining up better and more aggressively and not keep pushing “the event” out another week. Pretty soon we won’t have any more weeks to push out and still be in any realistic winter weather window.

  26. Sarah N. says:

    Keith, while weather.com does indeed have that for Feb 18, notice the temperatures it’s predicting…48 High, 40 Low; just a wee bit too warm for snow. Watch this disappear within their next update.

  27. Rich says:

    We live in Camas on top of Prune Hill. According to my guage last night we had a peak gust of 53 MPH! Once again my fortified BBQ flipped and roofing shingles are in the street. No power outages. We mostly have underground utilites up here. Many neighbors lost roofs last storm, we’ll see this time. These winds seem stronger.

  28. Keith says:

    OK correct me if im wrong… I am not weather man or anything and I just started looking at the Satellite Models on katu and maybe im wrong but it looks like on feb 18th we have cold air and alot of precip?? Can someone who knows how to read this stuff please tell me what im looking at??
    Thanks

  29. Keith says:

    This is interesting… Last Updated Feb 10, 12:08 AM PT http://www.weather.com says Rain / Snow Showers Sat Feb 18… Mark I hope this dont sound mean but I really hope your wrong this time : )…

  30. Derek says:

    The wind is really howling. Its probably gusted to 50mph by now. No power flickers yet but my house shakes during the big gusts! Its to bad on the no snow thing. Maybe another time huh. It was nice to be excited for a while.

  31. Steve says:

    I just moved down to the Turner area from PDX last Feb. When you have the east wind up there, we have a north wind down here. It does the same thing–clears the sky and dries things out.
    Mark, now that you are turning 40 I will have to quit calling you “the weather cadet”. When you first started doing the weather on TV you looked like you were in 9th grade and your suits were way too big. You reminded me of the “Sea Cadets” I saw while I was in Navy boot camp. BTW you are filling out your suits much better now. lol

  32. Ryan says:

    We are feeling it up here in Vancouver! The winds are gusting enough to give us intermittent brown outs. Could be a cool night if one gust finally knocks out the power.

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