Feels Like March

* Note…if you folks can play nice, we’ll keep the comments unapproved and see what happens.  Up until tonight we’ve had to approve comments before they show up here. This should allow a freer flow of ideas, provided we all behave…Mark

Now back to weather…I’m really enjoying our nice weather and it looks as if it’ll continue all the way through the weekend.  There will be one significant change for Thursday-Friday.  A dying storm falls apart over us tomorrow, but behind it strong Canadian high pressure drops south.  This should give us our strongest Gorge/Easterly winds since before Christmas.  Temperatures will only cool slightly with the increasing February sunshine beating the cold air back.  Then another system tries to run into the ridge over us this weekend.  I doubt that will have much success either.

As for colder weather next week…very mixed messages.  All models still agree on some sort of retrogression of the key features over the U.S. (the western ridge moves out over the Pacific and the eastern trough moves back to the west).  But each model does things differently.  Maybe most disturbing (if you want a late season blast of cold air) is the new 00z Canadian and 00z GFS.  They both keep the ridge a little closer, which never allows real cold air into the Northwest U.S.   And the GFS more or less keeps us mainly dry next week too.  Makes me wonder if we will just end up with more ridging.

I should clarify that we CAN get cold air later in the season, but it’s EXTREMELY rare.  The poster below mentioned early March 1960.  That WAS an impressive cold snap, I had missed that one.  Wow! I see Troutdale for 3 days had highs of something like 28-34.  Salem stayed in the lower 30s with snow.

18 Responses to Feels Like March

  1. Ben says:

    Jerry, you say “bringing it over the Rockies” do you mean west of the Rockies and into our area?

  2. Jerry says:

    First I would like to say, I apologize to anyone if I offended you. I got caught in the heat of the moment. The models are bringing it over the rockies. Pretty neat since we have not seen models or an event like this in some time. I am now hooked! lol

  3. Kirk says:

    Hey everyone I love knowing there are people out there that wait for arctic snow events like me. I am not surprised there was a rude post by someone so fast. Peoples character seems to diminish every year just like our chances for snow. Mark I have never made a post on any kind of web site until I came across this blog. I enjoy the comments by the wannabe forecasters because you are all like me in that regard. Take care and I will be hoping for snow and not just a lame dusting!

  4. cory says:

    Channel 2 has a neat model, the North American Computer model!! and look how far the jet stream goes above Alaska then drives straight down the west coast ??? Feb14 through 17

  5. Nathanael says:

    Forget last nights Canadian model. The new 00z run drives the cold air straight into the NW.

  6. Roxie Pederson says:

    It seems almost everyone is wishing for snow. Ugh. The few days of sunshine have been wonderful. The violets are blooming, the daffodils are up and the frogs are “singing”. I can’t wait for Spring, but guess I will have to anyway. LOL. I guess I am getting “older”.

  7. cory says:

    I agree on mark he is very good at what he does, but I also give props to Rod hill and the team on two they do good! In Portland its Mark or Rod!
    Wouldnt that be like a dream team LOL

  8. Tyler says:

    They were referring to a post that Mark has since removed that was totally inappropriate for the board. Hope you realize this before you leave.
    As far as I’m concerned, Mark is an excellent forecaster…and if anyone disagrees with his forecasts, then they should stop complaining and come up with their own! If you take a look at models, they are like a foreign language written backward. I’ve been studying/following the weather for over 10 years and I still have a hard time making an accurate forecast.

  9. Dmitri K says:

    Late season snow and cold events are pretty rare in Portland, but they’ve actually happened quite a few times if you look back at Portland’s weather history (just not recently of course). In 1936, downtown Portland had a high of 36 and 5″ of snow on APRIL 1. In 1911, there was widespread snow across western Washington and Oregon on APRIL 11, with 1″ at Corvallis. If you look at March, the Airport had an 8″ snowfall on March 8, 1951, and highs in the 30s on three straight days. And of course in 1960, there was a high of just 29 at PDX on March 3 with 2.3″ of snow. In 1954, there was a low of 23 on March 29th at the airport, in 1955 it hit 19 in early March. As recently as 1989, we had an arctic outbreak in early March with a high of 35 and a low of 19, numbers which we can’t even seem to reach in the dead of winter these days. If you look even further back, in both 1897 and 1906 there were cold waves in the middle of March that brough highs below freezing, lows around 20 and widespread snow across the Willamette Valley. There were also similar March cold waves in 1896 and 1903, though not as cold, adding up to 4 March cold and snow events in just 10 years here in Portland. And before any official records in 1862, after a winter in which an estimated 90-100 inches of snow fell in Portland (7 feet in Jan-Feb alone according to contemporary accounts), snow was reported as late as March 18th. But then again, the local climate definitely seems to have warmed since then, but you never know. Lets keep our hopes up for something to happen before this winter ends.

  10. charlie says:

    a forecaster on a paid site is predicting way below normal temps. in the Pacific Northwest From Feb 15 and beyond. He thinks there is going to be a big storm even if the trough is closer to us.

  11. Dan Zeit says:

    I am sorry to see someone so disgruntled as to make a nasty and rude comment about Mark Nelson. But then some never mature,do they. On to my weather comment. All the forecast models seem to be coming into agreement on the retrogression of the mean ridge currently of the rockies. Two things seem to be in doubt at the presemt time. Will the ridge retrograde far enough west to get us a real arctic blast,and will there be any moisture for snow. I believe we will see the development of a cut off low off southern Oregon-Northern California coastal areas next week. With us in a cold Northerly flow. This will give us highs in the 30,s and a good chance of some snow showers. Especially over Southern Oregon. Western Washington may be dry but cold. This could be a nice send off to winter.

  12. Jerry says:

    Mark specifically told everyone to keep this message board clean and dry. Please respect it, us and mark and don’t ruin it for everyone that wants to post here. Mark is only a man, not god, nor Mother Nature. It’s not in his control if it rains or not. And you can’t expect for him to be dead on 100% of time. It’s the pacific northwest, if you don’t like the weather wait 15 mins. I understand your concern and that you may have gotten a little wet. Lets remember though, if a chef cooks 15 good meals and 1 bad meal, he most likely only be remembered on the bad meal. No pun intended, just trying to keep this blessing secured. Mark is the best weather man hands down, if you watched and followed day-by-day he is always more accurate then any of the other weather teams around Portland and has even went against the NWS and was dead on. Let it snow!!!!

  13. CORY says:

    Noticed the national weather service now is hinting at a season ending snow event COULD IT BE?????????

  14. Ryan says:

    I was a little surprised to wake up to some early morning drizzle. Thank goodness for the new car cover :). As much as I would love an artic blast of snow I’d be just as happy with temps in the 60’s during the day and upper 40’s/low 50’s at night. I’m a rain fiend and loving the sun it’s a rare event!

  15. Mark,
    Well I have to say I love to hate the the MRF. I’ve noticed for the last two days a ridge building closer to the coast line and extending up into the gulf towards the end of the 10 day outlook which was suggesting that it was going to drag in the artic air sitting up in Canada. Well, as I’m sure you’ve seen, it’s tried all winter to drag this cold air in. I will be interested in seeing the model run tonight. I think one period this winter it was suggesting it for about 5 days straight and than nothing. Even with the rain, which year to date we’ve had 11.56″, it’s been a pretty boring winter.
    I’m in Longview at 500 feet ASL. I use a Vantage Pro Weather Station to log my data and post it on my site every 15 mins. Oh, and we did gust to 58mph on the 3rd right as the cold front passed.

  16. Mark Nelsen says:

    00z is 4pm in winter, 5pm in Daylight time. Models show up anytime from 2-5 hours afterwards

  17. Keith says:

    Please keep us posted Mark… Your the snow GOD right now ; )… I am reading the forums daily and hoping to see it say snow… Keith

  18. Derek says:

    Its nice when the east wind helps it snow or ice but other than that its just annoying. Especially since I go to school in Troutdale..I think somebody may have asked this before but when do the models update. I don’t think 00z means midnight, does it mean noon? I sure hope we get some more snow. I guess the best thing to remember is if the average is like 5 or 6inches of snow and we keep having all these years with no or 1 inch of snow then some year we will get clobbered. Just remember that if we don’t get anything else this year. Which we obviously will, =) haha

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