Cold Rain & Mountain Snow

January 25, 2006

Another indoor weekend coming up…

Looks like chilly rain through at least Saturday…good zonal (or westerly) flow runs right into the Northwest through the weekend.

I notice the snow level has dropped to around 2000′ or so this evening, and will lower slightly more overnight.  Unfortunately we won’t be adding to Portland’s impressive 1.2" winter snowfall total anytime soon since it’s not too cold.  Looking ahead through the next 3 days, 2 more weather systems move through.  Each is relatively cool.  I doubt the snow level climbs above 3000′ through at least early Sunday. 

Models show maybe 3" or so of precip in the next 84 hours (00z ETA) in the Cascades.  In this sort of pattern we might get 10" snow for every 1" of liquid rain, which means 2-3 feet of new snow is quite possible by mid weekend!  Wow…the happy days are here again old-timers…does 37 years old count?  If so I’m included as an old-timer now.

After that, warmer west-southwest flow may push snow levels up to 5000′ or higher, but overall it’ll be a stormy pattern through early week.

Long range GFS shows some sort of blocking or ridging starting late next week or so.  ECMWF doesn’t have much ridging and keeps us wet.