Another Tough Forecast

Everything is proceeding according to plan, except there is more than one plan…

Very dry (and colder) air is entering the metro area this evening via the Gorge.  And a weakening weather system is approaching from the west.  Easterly gradient increases rapidly to around 10mb. in the Gorge tonight and should easily produce 65 mph gusts in the usual spots (Corbett, Mt. Zion, Rooster Rock), and 45 mph gusts Washougal, Camas, Troutdale, Gresham.

But the question of the day…will there be moisture to produce some sort of frozen precip Wednesday?

Of the 5 models I’ve looked at (UW-MM5…3 versions, GFS, ETA):  2 are dry…nothing ever makes it here, 3 have very light precip…less than .15".  Obviously, if it’s dry…we just stay cold and windy tomorrow.  If moisture arrives (anywhere between 8am-5pm depending on model), will it be enough to cool temperatures to freezing, or only do that right in the Gorge?  And it also appears to be marginally cold enough above us to possibly allow snow to make it all the way down, which would eliminate the freezing rain threat, but give many areas a dusting.  What a mess.  Best guess forecast would be real light precip midday or so, which means anyone could see flurries, but solid freezing precip (sticking or freezing to ground) may stay confined east of I-205.  Frozen precip of any sort is very unlikely south of Wilsonville or north of Kalama.

Either way a real windy and chilly day!  All maps return us to cold high pressure east side and gusty gorge winds through the beginning of next week.  This is a one shot deal tomorrow and Thursday AM.  We’ll see what shows up 8-9pm on the new model runs.  If they are all dry, then it’ll be an easy forecast.

(Additional note at 11pm:  Our own model we run here plus the new GFS, & 1 version of the MM5-UW keep it dry…so I am definitely leaning towards dry now.  RRK gusted to 48 mph and Corbett to 57 the last couple hours, the cold/dry air is definitely moving in…)

12 Responses to Another Tough Forecast

  1. Andrew says:

    Been real windy here today (west hills of Portland). Just got done trying to lift back up a 1,000 pound , 25 foot long flower box with bambo in it. Can’t believe we got a wind gust strong enough to knock that sucker down

  2. jae says:

    This is awesome, I love reading blogs, and I love tracking the weather, so this is great! I also hope it snows some, I’d love a few days trapped inside with the family!

  3. Ryan says:

    Interesting weather anomaly here in Vancouver around the Vancouver Mall area. There is a weather station reporting WSW winds of about 5mph as opposed to the east winds everyone else is getting. Speaking of wind it appears that if you aren’t at PDX or out at the mouth of the gorge you dodged the wind bullet.

  4. Chris says:

    How did the other guys call tomorrow? Let’s get the board out and compare. I loved that last time to critic the others.

  5. ann says:

    Mark, thanks for this info!! I love your weather blog!! Altho a native, I lived in Florida for three years and became a weather watcher/fan, etc….Keep up all the great work!!

  6. Jeremy says:

    Hey Mark good luck on forecasting this next little storm. I’m sure you will stay on top of it. Hey do you think this winter we can get come intesne winter storm again or do you think it will be just wet like a usual Oregon winter? Thanks for the forecast.

  7. Kathi says:

    I’m keeping all my fingers and toes crossed for some sort of wintry precipitation tomorrow, but my eyes will be glued to Mark’s forecast. It’s the only one I trust to be accurate. But, if a little wishful thinking helps in any way, you’ve got mine!

  8. Matt says:

    Hopefully we’ll see some white stuff falling. Any early predictions for christmas? I know it’s early but sometimes there are models with percentages for a white christmas.

  9. Dan says:

    Mark, Thanks for keeping us in the loop on this tough forecast. It will be interesting as it was last time to see what the other channels forecast. I’m not looking forward to the wind as we live on top of the washougal river valley and man do those east winds blow up here.

  10. Jana says:

    I want it to snow really bad but then again i could just go to Mt.Hood.

  11. Ben says:

    Mark, way to keep on top of it. Sounds like we may see just a little bit of some ZR but .15 inches of precip. is more than enough to bring out the “STORM WATCH 2005” coverage on every channel. Should be most interesting when we come out of this cold air potentially next week.

  12. Andrew says:

    Use your weather man powers and make it snow mark :). We want snow in the metro area. By the way, i am a weather fanatic and live up in the west hills of portland. If you ever need someone to send you the temps/weather from just below council crest email me at adrew1452@aol.com

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