Wow folks…I’d have to say this is one of my toughest forecasts…I actually made the forecast at midday (for little to no snow) and then the NWS upgraded to a warning for the metro area. I have never (in 13 years here) been in a situation where I called for now snow and the NWS actually had a warning up. This is going to be real interesting.
1. Not cold enough with cold air coming from the east. Where the east wind is blowing as of 9:30pm in the Gorge, temperatures are only near 40 degrees! To get sticking snow with an east wind in Portland, we need about 28-30 degrees as the Corbett Middle School sensor. Right now it’s 38!
2. No source of cold air to the east…other than brief overnight cooling in the Columbia Basin, there is no good supply of cold air out there…at least no more than we had with Monday’s non-event that was similar.
3. Will we get heavy precip? That’s what can really cause a quick burst of 1-2" even if it’s only 32-34 degrees. Looks unlikely to me. All in all it just doesn’t look cold enough and the precip not heavy enough.
Either I or the NWS and at least one other TV forecaster are going to look pretty bad tomorrow, but hey! I’m going down in flames if possible! Mark