Monday PM Update: Looking a Little Drier

2:45pm…

We just had a flurry pass through the west side of the metro area, one of those “green” spots on the radar I mentioned on the previous post.

I’ve looked through several more model runs, stared at the radar screen a few times, and have a few thoughts:

1. Many of us will stay dry tonight through Thursday morning, thus in those areas no commuting issues Tuesday morning

Take a look at the WRF-GFS rainfall accumulation map through 4am tomorrow.  Little or nothing for most of the metro area and anywhere south into the valley:

oc_pcp24.24.0000

And a wider view showing anything that might fall after 4am.  A few hundredths of an inch.  If it was rain, we’d say a few sprinkles or a light shower later tonight or Tuesday morning:

or_pcp48.48.0000

and our RPM…totally dry!

RPM_12KM_Precip_NWOR

2. The coast is pretty much done with frozen precipitation.  Temps have warmed above freezing everywhere except where a light easterly flow is coming down the Columbia River.  Even that will gradually warm tomorrow morning.  Yes, still some icy streets around Astoria possible overnight.

3.  Very spotty snow flurries, with a dusting or so, are possible at some point this evening through the Tuesday morning commute inland, mainly from Portland north.  I think a lot of us will just wake up to flurries or a dusting on the ground.  Others could see up to 1/2″ or so in the eastern part of Clark County (Battle Ground, Hockinson, Camas) and eastern Multnomah County (Troutdale, Gresham, Corbett).  Plus Vernonia, Banks, St. Helens, and Scappoose.  The best spot could be up at Kelso and Longview where there will be a little more moisture.

4. A bigger issue is that areas of freezing drizzle or freezing rain showers could develop instead of or with flurries.  That’s because slightly warmer air is moving in around 2,000-3,000′ up.  It only takes a few minutes of liquid drizzle or rain to coat a road and make it an ice rink; far more dangerous & destructive than a half-inch of snow.

5.  Best areas for frozen precipitation of any sort away from the Cascade foothills?  Higher terrain north and west of downtown Portland (West Hills, Columbia County, Cowlitz County, Kelso/Longview)

IF we get more precipitation than expected, especially if it’s freezing rain, roads will be a huge mess for the Tuesday morning commute.  NO ROADS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL THAW UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY.  If a road looks wet, it’s icy.  Stay tuned here, on FOX12 (starts at 4:30am!) or on our Facebook/Twitter pages.  We are FOX12WEATHER on both of those.

I’ll do another update later this evening if conditions warrant…but for now I’ve run out of text colors to use, so I’ll sign off.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

88 Responses to Monday PM Update: Looking a Little Drier

  1. cgavic says:

    Out of the cold. 33 and heavy dusting of snow at 1,100 ft sandy.

  2. geo says:

    Uh, no snow here in sw gresham.

  3. WestsideWes says:

    Officially a bust near Century HS in Hillsboro. 1/2″ on the ground and still going. Roads are all white.

  4. Taylor says:

    Very concerned we won’t get snow in Clackamas. I really hope we do…

  5. Darlene in Boring says:

    I saw a shower over PDX on radar that was heading my way. I got a bit excited but now it appears to have snizzled it’s self out. I’m done, going to bed, what will be will be. :/

  6. Sifton says:

    Finally!!

  7. Seahawks Fan - NE Vancouver says:

    Didn’t think I’d be able to say this…. snowing moderately in NE Vancouver. Accumulation is beginning to make this morning’s commute interesting.

  8. Austin-East Vancouver says:

    Snowing moderately here in east Vancouver coating the roads. Loving it I might add.

  9. dothgrin says:

    The interesting thing is that the standard radar is not picking this up. It has been snowing lightly for a half hour now.

  10. Blazers #1 says:

    Snow is sticking all over in Fruit Valley.

  11. Lurkyloo says:

    Went up to the Safeway on NE Sandy Blvd. around 3:15 this afternoon. It was soooo crowded! 3pm on a Monday? I was bumping into carts like I was at Costco on a Friday. I said to the woman in the long line next to me, “What is this, Christmas Eve?” She said, “Oh, there’s going to be a big snowstorm tonight.” I said, “Really? I didn’t know that.” She said, “Yeah, I just hope I can make it to the airport tomorrow …” I nodded and bit my tongue and said no more. Folks be trippin’ (and well-stocked, I guess). :)

  12. Seahawks Fan - NE Vancouver says:

    Ground is turning white here in NE Vancouver.

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