Monday Morning Update: Flurries This Afternoon/Evening

10am Monday…

Sure FEELS like snow doesn’t it?

Solid cloud cover moved in the past few hours; it’s not going anywhere until Tuesday evening.  We are done with nights in the teens and single digits.  Now we begin a very slow moderation of the arctic air mass over us.  At the same time, northwesterly and westerly wind around 2,000′ and above is pushing moisture onto the coast and inland.  Light snow has been falling north of Tillamook and up onto the Washington coastline this morning.  Nothing except flurries is making it over the Coast Range…too dry.  This will continue the next few hours.  Thus another cold day with solid gray skies.

A weak disturbance passing overhead will squeeze flurries or freezing rain/drizzle out of the cloud layer this evening through Tuesday morning, then it’s back to dry until sometime Thursday.  All the previous bullet points on last night’s post are still valid, if you didn’t read those, you should.

So for this evening’s commute, at worst I expect flurries with only a dusting with little or no effect on roads.  There, I said it; now we’ll see what happens.  At best it’ll just be dry.  That includes the Portland metro area up to Woodland or so along I-5.  I think there’s a better chance for a half-inch or less snowfall north of St. Helens on the Oregon side of the Columbia and north of Woodland (Kelso/Longview) at some point this evening.

The main chance for frozen precipitation appears to be later tonight and for Tuesday morning’s commute, with the best chance up against the Cascade foothills in Clark and Multnomah counties.  This is very similar to the drizzle setup we often get where the metro area is mainly dry but it drizzles or rains lightly on the far east side of town and into the foothills.  Those spots could see an inch or more.

Today is a good “radar-watching” day.  Here is a link to Portland’s:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RTX-N0Q-1-12

and the Washington Coast radar:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LGX-N0Q-1-12

You generally need echoes above 10dbz (GREEN) to get precipitation down to ground level.  That said, this evening and overnight some of the precipitation will be below the radar beam, so the radar may show nothing and it’ll be snowing at your house.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

76 Responses to Monday Morning Update: Flurries This Afternoon/Evening

  1. vernonia1 says:

    Looks like the top tower temp is headed up pretty quickly…

    http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/kptv_tower_temps.htm

  2. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Question, when I was watching YouTube videos on how to make a DIY snow maker they talk about it needing to be below 27 for decent snow to be made, is this kinda like what’s happening now? The “snow” is forming in a layer of the atmosphere that is around 28 or so this the “snow is forming graupel/sleet? Obviously the basic explanation just something I was curious about if its the same idea

  3. Wendy-Silverlake says:

    It stopped snowing and the temp went from 26 to 29.

  4. Brad says:

    Steady light snow in Battle Ground. 29F

  5. Garron near Washington Square says:

    The snow at my house looks just like the snow on the BLOG! WHAT DOES IT MEAN???

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Maybe I’ve been staring at the blog too long? I’d swear those flakes look square, and fall in exactly the same manor!@ Maybe Mark has digitally altered the world? J/K Go out and enjoy another forecast bustorama..and watch out for a Prius speeding the Beaverton area ….Sorry just having fun, u know we still love u Mark…

  6. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Light snow, NOT flurry, happening here in Hillsboro just off of evergreen.

  7. Sapo says:

    1 flake every 20 seconds here in Tigard

  8. maryinsellwood says:

    Baby flakes spotted in Sellwood! Just started. 24 degrees here and very, very, very lightly snowing. Requires you hold perfectly still to see them but by golly they are there!

  9. Joe Schmoe says:

    So, there will or will not be an issue with icy roads tomorrow?

    • weathernate says:

      Not enough moisture coming according to Nelsen and Pierce to cause any problems is what I heard. But always be safe.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Just 5 minutes of freezing drizzle or rain would make a mess. I would assume there will be issues for the A.M. commute. I’m planning on it car-wise

  10. Sapo says:

    31.6 in Tigard. Slow warmup the whole day, I hope it slows down.

  11. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    VERY light snow now falling in downtown.

  12. Brent in Tualatin says:

    A few flakes falling in Beaverton. Very light!

  13. Ron says:

    Above freezing now in Astoria

  14. BoringOregon says:

    I hope we get some thing out here it is 21 out now. Sure is cool I have been learning about the radar to like things like. Attenuation, base Data, base products, base reflectivity, bwo echo, bright band and ect cool stuff!!

  15. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Time to start watching the tower temps, except it doesn’t look like the nws website is reporting current data:
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/tower_temps/tower_temps.php

    Anybody know of a different source?

  16. Just started to see a few flakes falling up here in BG

  17. Slight WEST wind in the gorge…the falls were beautiful though!

    • JohnD says:

      I agree. We went there Sat. a.m. I have seen
      the frozen falls many times over the years
      but somehow this time they seemed extra
      amazing. Simply gorgeous. Like a giant
      exquisite chandelier!

    • Model Rider says:

      Pics

  18. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Might get close to freezing here today. First time in five days.

  19. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Sitting at about 26 with frozen drizzle (sleet) and snowflakes mixed in. This is wierd

  20. W7ENK says:

    I personally witnessed exactly 5 snowflakes fall in Downtown Portland on my walk back to the office after grabbing some phở gà. I even named them just for you, Pappoose!

    Ziggy
    Yolanta
    Xavier
    Wilson, and
    Vince.
    :mrgreen:

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      LOL! that made me laugh.

      I guess its sad tho when we get excited over this and able to name every single one.

      If they pass by my place, I will let you know how they have been :P

    • Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

      I think Ziggy may have drifted by my window before heading down towards you, or maybe that was ziggio, they look so similar.

    • Chuck on Mt Scott says:

      Capture them and release them in the wild inside the dome :) Maybe they will mate and make more baby flakes.

    • W7ENK says:

      You think that’s funny, you should’ve seen the panic in the streets! People began running every which way with their hands in the air, screaming. It was sheer pandemonium for about 43 seconds!! I was calmly telling people, “It’s okay, just head to Milwaukie, The Dome will protect you!”

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Those flakes passed by here this am, W7!
      Didn’t have the opportunity to provide any names, as I was out testing the pond for weight support.
      Carefully stepped out on it and viola! It’s so solid I didn’t even get a crack with the walk across! I’ve never seen it this solid.
      Gotta get the dog out on it today and toss a toy out for him to fetch. Should provide some significant grins when he spins his wheels trying to take off!

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      Never doubt the dome…

  21. Trout Lake says:

    Here in Trout Lake at around 2000′ a strong west wind just kicked in (gusting up to almost 30 mph). The temperature was sitting in the low 20′s and in less than an hour rose to around 35. They were calling for a high in the mid 20′s. Being so close to the gorge and in a valley, Trout Lake is usually one of the last spots to warm. It looks like the warm up is happening. It is only a matter of time before the gorge starts thawing also.

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    • Zilbo Zagginz says:

      Camp Sherman went from -3.6F at 9:19 to 35.2F at 12:39 all on the back of what looks like a slight SSW breeze. Lots of other east slope sites in the OR Cascades appear to be doing the same.

  22. Ben T says:

    Get heavier!

  23. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    Warming up fairly fast out there now, many areas into the mid-upper 20′s. I hope this will not be the type of event where we crawl above freezing this afternoon then never fall back below. My gut is steering me in that direction….

    I also notice that the dewpoints are rising just right behind the temp as well, meaning we may not have any shot at much evaporative cooling.

    I hope mother nature proves me wrong!

    • Ryan says:

      We’re at exactly the temps we were at this time yesterday. I don’t see a single temp above 26 in the metro area right now. And it’s still 30 even in Astoria! Plus we will have cloud cover all afternoon. I see 30 as a max.

  24. WEATHERDAN says:

    First came those posters in October who posted what a horrible mild Winter this was going to be with another wet and cool Spring. Then last week I saw posters blog that the models were going to give us nothing but maybe some fake cold. All I said was to be patient and trust you instinct. When you live here long enough you get a feel for the weather. I try not to pay too much attention to the models. Though I too sometimes get caught in the moment and model ride. That said I think we stay below freezing until Thursday afternoon with just a little snow at times. Probably no more than 2 inches total before it warms up. Maybe some light freezing rain on Thursday morning. But with us in a mainly Northwest flow even this weekend we will still be talking 40-45 for highs and a snow level of 2,000 feet. This Winter sure reminds me of December 1968. If that turns out to be even close to the fact we will see more than our share of cold and snow this Winter. Of course even that Winter we had some rainy days with a good South wind and highs in the 50,s. In fact in early January of 1969 we had a 3 day stretch with highs of 55-60 degrees. So it will warm up that’s for sure. But the cold will be back I feel quite confident in that. And maybe even before Christmas. No Winter is ever exactly the same. But as I said when you have been at this long enough you just get a feel for the season. I could be wrong but I just get a feel that we will be talking about the Winter 0f 2013-2014 for many years to come. Peace and may a very Merry Christmas to one and all.

  25. W7ENK says:

    If I get even one snowflake out of this, it will be better for me than all of last winter. Friday was a bust (for snow). I’m still waiting…

    Saturday morning I discovered that three blocks to my east had little tiny snow drifts along the curbs from Friday. THREE BLOCKS!! Why does the universe hate me so

    • JJ78259 says:

      Snow machine, if you would have had it going in your front yard for the last few days you would be on the news maybe even a Mark Nelson remote report!

      Got my Alamo Bowl tickets to see the duckies no airfare required!

    • Tommy says:

      Its funny how location makes such a difference, even when its only a mile or two (or a few blocks). I live in St. Helens a few miles out of town. We had at best 3/4”. Scappoose is 8 miles south of us…they had 3 1/2”. Frustrating for those of us that really like snow (me). We’ve already had some flurries this morning, so here’s hoping tonight we get one last burst.

    • Danny says:

      Well your not the only one, haha I also live under this terrible dome, I was actually on 82nd near Johnson creek yesterday and my goodness they had snow drifts near the curbs and I was just so pissed,

    • W7ENK says:

      Been there, done that, glad I didn’t have to pay that water bill!!

      Have fun down at the game, should be a spectacular loss for the Ducks. I heard they’re leaving their give-a-sh*+ back in Autzen?

  26. JohnD says:

    Well, not much to write home about. As always, was
    hoping for better. Waaaaaa. I guess I will still keep
    hope alive until tomorrow though–e.g. the remote
    potential of squeezing out an elusive inch overnight.
    Then back to lala land for the foreseeable.

  27. Wendy-Silverlake says:

    It’s snowing here and in Longview.

    • weathernate says:

      Is Rod Hill really think we are just going to bust out of the cold in one day? Mabye to much egg nogg for him.

    • Ryan says:

      He’s been on the warm side this whole event. Not sure where its coming from. He’s lived here long enough to know we don’t just all of the sudden “warm-up” without a good south wind. Just doesn’t happen here.

    • Wendy-Silverlake says:

      Change that, it’s snowing in Longview, but we’ve got little pellets falling here. A little snow mixed in, but mostly pellets.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I think he had a forecast high of 44 for either Sunday or Monday. That was around Thursday when we had a high of 30

  28. paulbeugene says:

    20 days ending today in Eugene has been the coldest 20 day stretch for lows in Eugene since Dec-Jan 1990/91, the third coldest ever for Eugene Airport since records kept there:

    Jan 1949: 18.3
    Dec 1990: 19.6
    Nov-Dec 2013: 20.5.

    I am fearful of my heating bill.
    I am also fearful that we are headed for a period of fake cold with ridging nearby or overhead, with persistent cold over interior west/Canada, with inversions, and persistent freezing temps at night.
    We also could get another spell of arctic air at the end of this month or early Jan. Too early to tell.

    I have not seen a single snowman in Eugene. They migrated south to Redding, CA…too cold and dry here for them…astounding.

    • paulbeugene says:

      I forgot to mention Dec 1972 with 18.4 deg avg low for 20 day stretch, so the current stretch is fourth coldest.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Too bad there wasn’t a base in the mtns. This pow would’ve been epic up there!

    • Lurkyloo says:

      I am SO scared of my electric bill!! This cold has taken a huge bite out of my woodpile, too. I was so smug and grinning when I got 2 cords delivered in July. Ain’t much left … :(

  29. Darlene in Boring says:

    Thanks, Mark! Cold westerly breeze has started out here in Boring. It has warmed 6 degrees since 0530 but that breeze makes it feel like it hasn’t budged. I am just hoping to make it back from 181st area around 5pm without incident…sounds like it “shouldn’t” be a problem.

  30. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    I’m betting on snizzle north of Hubbard.

  31. Ryan says:

    Mark, do you think we even hit 30 today with this cloud cover? Sure feels colder out there this morning than it did this weekend. No sunlight to warm things up slightly.

    Also, the PDX area forecast discussion is sure delayed this morning. Usually out by 8 or 9 something. Lots of details to decipher?

  32. Hman says:

    Thanks!

  33. Ryan says:

    Thanks, Mark! Glad to hear there is something headed our way, even if it’s VERY weak.

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