Evening Flurries

10pm Monday…

Some excitement out there the past couple hours as a few light snow flurries moved through the metro area.  Looks like the last batch is moving through East Vancouver.  Enough to give a good coating on the ground in a few spots.  I see I-205 is partially covered by fresh snow and slower moving traffic up around SR 500 on the WADOT video feed.

Radar looks pretty dry the next couple of hours…again, real light stuff.

So far it appears to be all snow, but the temperature at the top of our KPTV transmission tower in the West Hills (1800′) has come up to just under freezing.  A good indication of warming up above the surface overnight.  Thus the increasing chance for some spots of freezing drizzle or freezing rain showers.

We just had our first report of freezing rain in Sheridan at 10pm.

Otherwise evening models were no different, not a whole lot of moisture.  Best chances for more than 1/2″ of snow or significant freezing rain is north and west of the metro area.  And NE up in Clark County too.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

76 Responses to Evening Flurries

  1. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Looks like a GOLU day today.

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    832 AM PST TUE DEC 10 2013

    SHORT TERM…RADAR HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES EXTENDING FROM THE S WA COAST DOWN THROUGH SW WA AND THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AND LIGHT SO FAR THIS MORNING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS BELOW ABOUT 800 MB ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA… ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING INLAND HAVE BEEN AS SNOW…ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE REPORTS OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. SURFACE TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WERE GENERALLY RUNNING AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. KPTV TOWERS TEMPS SHOWED SOME MILDER AIR ALOFT…AROUND ZERO CELCIUS AT 1800 FT. OVERALL WILL NEED TO MAKE FEW CHANGES. WILL LEAVE THE INLAND ADVISORIES STAND DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE…ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

    http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/kptv_tower_temps.htm

    • Ryan says:

      Yea Thursday could be the interesting GOLU day. NWS is confident we’ll start with freezing rain north of Wilsonville. How long it lasts is up in the air, but because of the overall weakness of the front, it may take quite awhile. My gut says by the time the moisture comes in, we’ll be slightly above freezing tho. Of course, lol.

    • prairiedog says:

      Air temp may be above freezing but the ground won’t for a while. Should be interesting. My dad always would bring up ’49-50 and said that after a substantial snowfall, it was 19f outside and raining. He said it was the biggest mess he had ever seen. Then more snow fell on top of about 3/4″ of ice.

  2. 30.2. Warmest temp in 6 days…

  3. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    1/4 of an inch in North Plains this morning. It was all snow, no freezing rain or drizzle!

  4. boydo3 N Albany says:

    Both the 0z ecmwf and gfs show a favorable pattern beginning to develop again at 9 days out.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      To me, this looks transitory, I don’t see any major blocking ridge developing but maybe this is just the start of some “noise” being fed into the models…time will tell.

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Boydo, the 12z shows more along the lines of your thoughts here, it looks more encouraging on EPAC high and possible reload. Hoping for a repeat with more snow this time, but of course, we shall see, let the model riding begin once again.
      The 12z Euro looked more transitory and that’s where I was basing my analysis off but with the 12z operational GFS showing a nice block for us, may start warranting more eyes on the models :)

  5. Kenny says:

    Score, score, score, score! The new 12z GFS brings back the arctic air but this time with plenty of MOISTURE! So you don’t have to worry about just cold.

    http://oi39.tinypic.com/2iuaupu.jpg

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      Kenny, that is not arctic air, that is cool NW maritime flow, transitory in nature and is marginal at best for snow showers in Portland and vicinity.

    • Sifton says:

      I love your work on South Park too Kenny……..

  6. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    The HRRR is pretty agressive with precip, you have to wonder if it happened to be heavy enough to shrink the layer of warmer air…maybe snow? Tough to say, will be interesting to hear this morning’s AFD.

    • Ryan says:

      Just when all hope was lost, I see this model. Very interesting! Looks like around 12-2pm maybe? Has this been accurate in past events?

    • Aloha Rainshadow says:

      It was very accurate last Friday when we were within 6-12 hours of the event. I feel like it’s overplaying the moisture, but you never know…it was also pretty accurate during Tstorm outbreaks this past summer when we were within a few hours of possible outbreaks.

  7. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Not sure if this link will work because it’s long but here’s the 13z HRRR.
    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_dev1_zeus:&runtime=2013121013&plot_type=allcref_t1sfc&fcst=00&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP Model Fields – Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t1&adtfn=1&threshold=&attfn=-1&wjet=0

  8. David B. says:

    As I expected, the rain shadowing of the Olympics saw too it that pretty much everyplace BUT the Central Puget Sound region got a dusting last night. :-( :-(

  9. GTS1K' says:

    Maybe 1/2″ overnight, still 24.8…

  10. Aloha Rainshadow says:

    Latest HRRR Run puts a bullseye on the Portland area around noon…will the column be cold enough for snow or do we see ZR???

    • David B. says:

      Great pictures! I did pretty much the same tour in 2009:

      http://bfretro.smugmug.com/Nature/Gorge-Cold-Snap

      One thing that caught my attention back then, which does not seem to be happening now, is how the water got supercooled by spraying through the frigid air to the point where the creeks below many of the falls were freezing from the bottom up.

  11. Garron near Washington Square says:

    I am just happy that it stuck around this time! Beautiful morning….

    • Ryan says:

      You must not live too close to Washington Square. I just drove by that and maybe saw a few tiny drifts, but certainly not all white.

  12. llinkelso says:

    Freezing drizzle now in North Kelso. From the time I started my car to warm it up and brush off the snow it turned into a sheet of ice! Could not get off my hill!!

  13. maryinsellwood says:

    26 degrees at my house. A light dusting this morning with nothing much happening, not snowing, not drizzling, no breeze, ahhhh….such a tease…..but a peaceful tease at least.

  14. About 1/2″ of snow. Now there is freezing drizzle. I think. When I look into the light I can see ice crystals but it’s falling like rain. Definitely not snow. Luckily freezing rain/drizzle is better now than underneath the snow! 27.2 and holding for several hours.

  15. Andrew (Beaverton, OR) says:

    All white with a heavy dusting in Beaverton near 26 and murray this morning. No problems on the drive into downtown at all, however i can bet highway 26 will start to back up due to all the drivers freaking out over snow in the air. Downtown is completely clear.

  16. West haven. W stark st. Snow! Temp 27 650 feet elevation .

  17. Darlene in Boring says:

    I woke up at 4:45 (before my alarm) and opened my eyes to see my bedroom deck all white! Real snowflakes were falling too! I hope everyone gets something and I loved reading all the giddy posts on here! A few of you are just nuts but not going to name anyone. I am sure you know who you are. Enjoy!

  18. Sapo says:

    Tigard has a heavy dusting, streets completely white. Light snow here yet nothing on the radar.

  19. Seahawks Fan - NE Vancouver says:

    Battle Ground Public Schools are closed for today!

  20. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    You might be a weather nerd if you hide a snowball in an area that won’t receive much sunlight due to it being winter.

    This is the fourth band of snow I’ve seen move through tonight. My toes are frozen, my body is cold… But it’s worth it to watch it snow.

    I’m back inside in a warm room right now.

  21. snodaze says:

    I guess the question is if that blob streaming into, and off of Astoria develops into something… And if so, whether it falls as snow or not?

    I don’t know… we’ll find out in the next couple of hours I gather.

  22. runrain says:

    Solid snow cover here in Happy Valley at 500′ and coming down pretty good. All snow too from what I can tell. A lot more than the other storm.

  23. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Almost half an inch in Bg. More than I had on Friday. Temp 27

  24. PeteCJ says:

    There is no cold air in the Gorge to pull from. It’s 34-36 degrees already all the way out to Hood River. We’ll see how long we can hold onto our pocket of cold air here in the metro area.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Where are you located at? Because every station near me is recording 30-or-lower temps… Some with snow.

  25. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    I might have drank WAYYYY to much tonight.

    …But even I know when it’s actually snowing.

    The street in front of my house is over 75% snow covered right now. Not a lot, but WAY more than it was a few nights ago.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      WAYYYY too*

      Aaaaand that’s my cue to drink more water and get ready to go to sleep.

      Admittedly, there’s another quasi-batch of moisture moving over me at this time. :P

    • Danny says:

      It’s awesome it’ snowing pretty hard now, the dome has officially cracked well this time around! I’m surprised. Definitely more than Friday’s little fiasco. I’m loving it!

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I couldn’t go to bed without checking out that last little band of snow move in.

      I went outside 25 minutes ago to see if there was snow falling. I grabbed a blanket after I saw a couple flakes… Sat down on the curb and spent all that time watching the snow pick up. All wrapped up and watching with bated breath as the snow just kept coming. During that band, it definitely wasn’t flurries, it was actual snowfall.

      Nearly the entire street between me and my neighbors’ across the street is covered. In the center, it’s pretty solid snow, at the edges it’s mostly snow.

      …What has become of me to get excited over THIS LITTLE SNOW?!

      …Screw it. It’s still snow and I watched it pile up!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah! True weather geek stuff EY.
      We musn’t let any flakes fall unobserved!

  26. Diana - Mt Scott says:

    Snow at 1000′ on Mt Scott, 25.3 is the temp, not even a hint of a breeze. It’s not snowing hard, but the flakes are pretty big and it’s floating gently to the ground. Very slowly, will have to snow for awhile to see much accumulation at this rate.

  27. Danny says:

    The Dome has cracked, it’s snowing steadily here in Milwaukie.

    • snodaze says:

      Yeah, I was gonna say (to Pete below)… :-)

      “with snow” — radar filling in quite nicely now with blues and greens…

  28. PeteCJ says:

    Call the cops, I think someone’s about to get B U S T E D!!!

  29. Heatblizzard says:

    Sorry for swearing but it is a complete total shock though I should’ve known since usually that is the case. There has been also times where we have had light snow and nobody else up to Portland has had any.

  30. Heatblizzard says:

    What the *F–k* I see stars only above my house! All around is high clouds except here. It’s like I have some kind of heat generator just enough to chase off the clouds while everybody else has their radar filling in.

    Is this part of W7ENK’s dome?

  31. schmit44 says:

    12/9/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:52 at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft) & RED MOUND(1753 ft)
    Low: 36 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:5 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -26 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (27/-24 ) (4160 ft )

  32. Dale says:

    off an on snow showers out hear in Dayton

  33. Josh Gardner says:

    Looking at the precip on the 4km WRF from tonight, I’m confident in widespread Snow Showers transitioning to ZR for NW Oregon and SW Washington. The time period I’m watching is 10am to 2pm. Highest amounts will be in Clark and Cowlitz counties, as well as the far west metro area (basically further west on 26). Here’s the amounts

    Cowlitz County/Clark County (Vancouver/Battle Ground/Longview/Kelso/etc): .15″ to .25″
    Far West Metro (Banks/Gaston/West Hillsboro): .10″ to .20″
    Inner PDX Metro: .10″ to .15
    East PDX Metro: .05″ to .15″

    Now you may say, “but Josh, these are really light amounts”… I agree. So the snow amounts will be light, largely under 2″ at best, and those numbers will be in the same areas that are mentioned above. But the issue will be as the upper atmosphere warms, we’ll still have freezing temps as this sounding indicates: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/rt/showsounding_d3.cgi?initmodel=GFS&yyyymmddhh=current_gfs&reqhr=12&loc=kpdx&locname=Portland%2COR&latlon=45.59N%2C122.59W

    That shows below zero all the way to the surface, but warmer pockets above. This is very close to a prototypical ZR sounding. And this could be a problem. If we see widespread .05″ to .10″ of ZR, that will make everything a SHEET of ice.

    Also supporting this is the 02z HRRR Predictable Water model run. This is what I used to forecast the snow event last friday, so I’m putting stock in it. It shows the higher values spreading past the coast range starting around 3am and continuing through the end of the run 9am. The values support the WRF.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_dev1_zeus%3A&runTime=2013121002&plotName=pwtr_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

  34. Mark says:

    Has anyone noticed the 00z GFS taking quite a shift with their last runs for mid-late month?… It is but one run, and it’s spaghetti for the most part, but the trend saw a definite shift south… Something to keep an eye on.

    • scommando1 says:

      Total nub here, trying to get into the whole weather spectrum (high-schooler)- but, could you translate that into ‘dummy’ language? What exactly does that mean?

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      It kinda falls in line with the EURO operational at hour 240. I’m not too excited yet………..

  35. clyde says:

    Thanks for keeping us updated Mark. You’re my go to guy for up to date changes in the forecast. I drive over the coast range 5 days a week so it’s nice knowing what to expect.

  36. Slavik says:

    Bare, yet extremely cold out here in Troutdale.

    I’m really hoping for some freezing rain out here, giving the possibility of no school. Now, can someone explain at what point does snow & freezing rain meet in terms of closures?
    I know that freezing rain is much more dangerous than a dusting of snow..but at what accumulation does it become dangerous enough to close schools like freezing rain does?

    Also, what do you expect tomorrow?

    • Danny in Troutdale says:

      if you go to Reynolds high like i did, your going to school no matter what. One year we were the only district in the state that had school while everyone had a snow day. The fun part about it was all the stations came over. A friend and I was following behind a Fox 12 reporter for about 10 min in the hallways after school. lol We ended up making it on the news in the background.

  37. Sifton says:

    C’mon NE Clark County!!

  38. dothgrin says:

    Yet a nice 1/4 to 1/2 inch in Aloha and coated roads.

  39. WestsideWes says:

    Damn, I’m not in, but I do have snow.

  40. Ben T says:

    Flirting with the flurries. Those vixens!

  41. Ryan says:

    Bare as a bone here in NW Beaverton

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