ECMWF Weekly Maps

It’s Thursday afternoon, so a fresh run of the ECMWF out to 30 days.  Here are the week-by-week maps.

By the way, models have warmed even further with the Saturday and Tuesday troughs, so we have eliminated any “snow in the hills” wording on our 7 Day forecast.  There could be sticking snow briefly Saturday morning as low as 1,000′ in the Coast Range and west slopes of the Cascades, but more likely up around 1,500′.  The 18z GFS doesn’t even have it that cold for Tuesday now and the ECMWF is around -5 to -6 at that time at 850mb.

Here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart, followed by the 18z GFS chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Now the ECMWF weekly maps:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

24 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. o.c.paul says:

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…(stretch, yawn) is it November yet?
    oh, it’s…never mind zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  2. Ben T says:

    Boo! Horrible winter!

  3. Somehow my comment was vaporized so let me say this again….The GFS has continued to forecast an extended unsettled period and the ECMWF continues it’s warming trend after a week or so. It’s interesting how they both have been consistently hanging on to their respective longer range outlooks. Who will win out?

  4. gratefulduck says:

    You know Eddie (Mark).. If I woke up with my head sowen to the carpet I wouldnt be as surprised as I am right now…

    NOT!

    Imagin that.. they all got warmer

  5. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Nothing else happened after yesterday’s 2 inches of snow. Was a pleasant, overcast day. High of 38 and low of 15.

  6. Marcus says:

    Winter storm Q really what’s next winter storm R,S,T??? Or what about winter storm ABC’s ridiculous!:)

  7. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    The GFS chart is way too spastic for me.

    Hasn’t the ECMWF been more accurate lately? I could be wrong, but I think I’ve been hearing that it’s a bit more accurate than the GFS and WRF… At least lately.

    And is the ECMWF the Euro model?

    • WX Ninja says:

      ECMWF is the Euro and it is generally more accurate than the GFS and WRF. With that being said, the WRF is better at nailing down the smaller mesoscale details…

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Thanks for verifying the information.

      Alright, um… ECMWF – Prove to us that you’re the best. I REALLY like how mild early March is looking according to that. It’s been fairly stable too, last few charts I saw from the Euro have been sticking to this chart.

      Hopefully we see mid-60s and sunny! The wife already said she can’t wait to get outside and actually get some sun.

  8. karlbonner1982 says:

    Looks like the NCEP’s forecast for a cold March could end up being an epic bust…

  9. JERAT416 says:

    Winter doesn’t need to be called off for the Portland metro area, because it never actually started.

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