ECMWF Monthly Maps

4pm Thursday…

Your Valentine for today…

You know the deal, the weekly average 500mb heights from last night’s monthly run of the ECMWF.  Looks wetter and cool as we head into the middle of March?  Hmmm…surprise…

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500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

119 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Maps

  1. *BoringOregon* says:

    Hmmm, Kinda of a exciting weather day today. Pea size hail, heavy rain not a bad day. Looks like Boston is going to get a foot of snow again !!

  2. 62 here today in BG. It’s the first 60 degree day in February (for me at least) in 5 years!

  3. It’s amazing what SOUND can do…it has force! This from the Russian meteor today:

  4. Ben T says:

    Anything worthy of mentioning on the GFS or EURO?

  5. Marcus says:

    Just hit 60 in La Center wow what I nice day last one for a while go out and enjoy:))

  6. germantownsummit1000' says:

    50 now – I (humbly) predict 61

  7. W7ENK says:

    It missed!! \^_^/

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Already 43 degrees, forecast high is 54. This now marks 19 consecutive days of nice walking weather outside.

  9. W7ENK says:

    For anyone interested, live info about today’s 2012 DA14 asteroid flyby on NASA TV, full coverage begins at 11am PST, so in about an hour.

    http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/ustream.html

  10. germantowmsummit1000' says:

    Are these events connected?

    The meteorite in Russia and the asteroid approaching this afternoon are “completely unrelated,” according to NASA. The trajectory of the meteorite differs substantially from asteroid 2012 DA14.

    “Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite, and analysis is preliminary at this point,” according to the NASA website. “In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14’s trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north.”

    Sorry, Erik – you can take off your tinfoil hat, now.

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:

    “another…potentially colder low will bring a chance for more
    precipitation Thursday.”

    National Weather Service Portland or
    839 am PST Friday Feb 15 2013

    Long term…Monday night through Thursday…the upper trough will form a cut off low off of southern Oregon by Monday night. The low will push inland Tuesday with wrap around showers bringing periods of rain and mountain/foothill snow Tuesday. Another period of brief ridging is modeled to build in for Wednesday…keeping things mainly dry. But another…potentially colder low will bring a chance for more precipitation Thursday.

  12. germantowmsummit1000' says:

    In other news…

    Medium foggy and 39.7 here – a slight stirring of Easterly breezes.

    I’ll be watching for the disc of the sun (at least) over the ridge shortly – I already see the localized brightening – indicating the likely persistence of this soup.

    Hoping for full beam by 10AM.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Some links for the asteroid, “2012 DA14″ flyby:

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/13feb_asteroidcoverage/

  14. Completely clear here and 31 degrees this morning. It promises to be a beautiful day!

  15. bgb41 says:

    2/14/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 49 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:27 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 11 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft ) & CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (54/16 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.08″ at CW6318 Welches(1283ft)
    0.07″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  16. Kent Estep says:

    Russians get all of the cool meteors…wow…amazing stuff…at first I thought it was another viral video prank…obviously not…

    • W7ENK says:

      Just minutes ago over Russia!!

    • W7ENK says:

    • W7ENK says:

    • W7ENK says:

    • *BoringOregon* says:

      Hey W7 whats going on ?

    • W7ENK says:

      Looks like a chunk of rock from space came careening into the atmosphere over Russia. The shockwave has apparently caused some damage, and reports of possible casualties. Something may have reached the ground, too. Not sure yet. Details are still coming in.

      This may or may not be related to the asteroid set to pass midday tomorrow (for us). I’m wondering if this wasn’t possibly a smaller, unseen chunk that was travelling just ahead of the main asteroid? If so, how many more are there, and might we expect something like this once we rotate around toward its path in the morning??

      Lots of questions…

    • *BoringOregon* says:

      Well at least we know they have great car alarms there !

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      And they love taking videos with loud Russian music in the background!

    • pgiorgio says:

      thats crazy

    • W7ENK says:

      Closest approach of the main asteroid will be at 19:25 GMT (11:25am PST) tomorrow. It will be passing by at ~17,000 miles above the Indian Ocean, so I think we’ll be fine on this side of the planet. I wouldn’t mind being woken up by a sonic boom, however!

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      Where was NASA on this one? They were sure proud of the one they saw that wasn’t going to hit the Earth. How crazy, I saw a blueish streak in the sky on the way home tonight when I was on I 205 around 9:45. Wonder what else is heading our way, better where a hard hat to bed tonight.

    • W7ENK says:

      The one “they” saw coming — which still has yet to pass by — is about the size of a football stadium. The one that exploded over Russia earlier today was maybe the size of a compact car.

      Latest info has injury count up to about 1,000 people, mostly from falling glass.

      http://www.kptv.com/story/21203652/meteorite-falls-in-russian-urals

      Chelyabinsk (Челябинск) is a city of about 1 million people, roughly the size of Portland, I suppose. Imagine a small nuke detonating 30,000 feet overhead.

    • germantowmsummit1000' says:

      “The Earth travels about a million miles in a day and these are two events separated by almost 24 hours, so it is unlikely they are connected,” says asteroid expert Richard Binzel of MIT. Meteors the size of the Russian one hit Earth every few years, Binzel says, but land near inhabited places much less often. “We just have the incredible coincidence of this happening just before the asteroid flies by,” Binzel says.

    • W7ENK says:

      Incredible coincidence, indeed! Although, I don’t necessarily believe in coincidence. It is true that the Earth travels about a million miles a day, however, cut that distance in half since this occurred only about 12 hours ahead of the passing of Asteroid 2012 DA14. I don’t know if the trajectory is similar or not (I haven’t looked into that yet), but it’s not totally inconceivable to believe that a random space rock set to graze our planet could have smaller debris nearby — ahead, behind or alongside. On the grand scale of things, 500,000 miles isn’t really all that far.

      Maybe it was the arrival of the new Pope? Was it headed toward The Vatican??

    • germantowmsummit1000' says:

      With all due respect, I’ll go with the guy from MIT.

  17. Greg Carstens says:

    I am loving all the negative numbers on the weekly maps Mark. I knew winter was not over yet. The fork kept falling out of winter ;)

  18. Of course it’s going to be a cold spring…
    Cold NE Pacific…. Trend of the last few springs… CFSv2 suggesting cold March… CPC outlook for cold spring…. Smart money is on a cold nasty spring

  19. flurball says:

    Tomorrow could be a great taste of spring you won’t see for a month unless you can get east and or at some elevation. Otherwise it seems we are in a rut of cold springs and late summers. I understand true north magnetic poles change and it seems our traditional calendar for warmth/dry and cold/wet is also sliding forward based on the last several years. Spring forward and fall back have seemed to advanced in my lifetime as far as weather is concerned.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      It’ll change again – it’s just a matter of when.

      And when it does flip back, it’ll probably do so with a VENGEANCE! Think record warmth in March and April….

  20. ocpaul says:

    Hopes for snow
    ten to fifteen days out
    smacked down, dead

  21. bgb41 says:

    I keep asking myself how many more years are we going to have wet and cold March’s and warm dry September’s. I truly miss the days where we get our first 70 day in March and then have a nice June. This pattern can’t last forever. A sunny 80+ degree day in June is much better than an 80+ degree day in September due to the long day length.

    • Sapo says:

      Hey, good thoughts.

    • germantowmsummit1000' says:

      Two more years

    • Greg Carstens says:

      I heard that down in San Francisco they were expecting their first 70 degree day soon. I will have to check that at the NWS site down there. Paul Deanno at KPIX down there actually made it a highlight on his forecast. Looks like right now would be a great time to visit Brookings, Oregon as well.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      It wasn’t that impressive in Portland after February, but the whole Feb-May period in 1968 was dope in The Dalles. WAY above climo for Feb, Mar and May – and slightly above climo for Apr.

  22. Ben T says:

    NWS backed off on the minor snow possibility. That clearly means snow.

    • Sapo says:

      Yes, yes, but no. Nice try, but it doesn’t look like snow on that day that they used to say that minor snow possibility. But it is true that when they say it’ll rain it’ll snow! Ya never know!

  23. Josh in Sherwood says:

    I’ll take credit for the reminder to post these!

  24. Ben T says:

    Does anyone know a snow dance?

  25. WEATHERDAN says:

    This Spring wiil be a normal one. Some sunny warm days, and some cool wet ones. I look upon the computer models as entertainment, nothing more. How many major storms or cold blasts were on the computer models this winter.? And how many actually happened here this winter. Nada, Zip, Zilch. Let the tv mets forecast weather up to a week out, ok. But saying that spring will be a bust because a computer model says so is foolish. You might as well read tea leaves or look into a crysal ball. Once you get out much past about 7 days out on the GFS, and about 10 days out on the ECMWF the accuracy seems to drop off rapidly. This current winter weather pattern we are in is not at all like the last three winters. And I have every confidence that this Spring will be nicer than the last three. That said our normal Springs have a lot of cruddy weather and I’m sure we will get our share. I am looking forward to having some nicer days in March.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Calling Spring a bust this early is stupid…

      But I don’t think Spring is going to be that good this year. Just a gut feeling that, at least March, will end up cold and wet… Just blah weather. I keep thinking (and I sincerely hope I’m massively wrong) that we’re going to end up with a worse March this year than last year’s terrible performance. And I don’t think April is going to be much better. Though I have a feeling May is going to end up nice.

      In my case (and I suspect in the cases of others around here), there’s not much in the way of science, rhyme or reason… It’s just a gut feeling. Unfortunately those gut feelings are just as accurate this far out as anything else. :P

    • Sifton says:

      I ‘try’ never to look more than 3 days ahead, usually = disappointment for me no matter what the season……..usually.

    • W7ENK says:

      Just like calling this winter a bust in November was stupid? Riiiiiiiiiiight… Well, I guess we can all rehash this again come June, ‘kay? :mrgreen:

    • germantowmsummit1000' says:

      Sheesh…

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Last day of winter is March 22nd and so is the first day of Spring. Don’t count your chickens until their all hatched but at the same time don’t go to far out on the forecast limb to predict an epic late season snowstorm. We’re due for a warm Spring and early summer surely but the trend for both on the CPC NOAA charts is not looking all that impressive for it.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Come on Gregg, you know the “official” definition of winter is way off in terms of average temps, at least for the Pacific Northwest. November 21-February 20 is the coldest quarter of the year, not December 21-March 20.

      Actually I like to think of the whole period from Halloween through Spring Equinox as the “greater winter season” with the two “big” months usually being December and January. November is the transition INTO winter, while February and early/mid March are the transition OUT.

  26. I said this would happen …grrrr..

    • Sapo says:

      Yes, that looks good but this late in winter it’ll pan out to be cold wet rain, and then to an average spring (whatever that is)

  27. Sifton says:

    Like last Sunday, about an 1 hours worth of sunshine. Hopefully @ least 2 tomorrow yes………….

  28. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    You just had to whip out that Inferior ECMWF.. didn’t ya. ^_^

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Greg? Do you have a comment about that?

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Ahhh you betchya Mark.

      I like that the NWS has been watching a retrograding pattern now as they have mentioned in their discussions. I actually saw some of that going on some 240 hrs ago from this current post here. It was not a stable pattern as there appeared at times to be some westerly flow in the 500 millibars level at times but it seemed a ridge wanted to stay offshore at any rate to the southwest of us. Looks like the GFS sort of jumped on board and the NWS is pessimistic right now about it because the colder stuff is a ways off but I am still seeing a pattern trend that brings the colder goods to us. The only bad problem about a sharp ridge though offshore is it tends to take everything to California where The Sierra gets all the fun and excitement and we get nothing but cold and dry air around here.

      It will surely be more exciting than what I have had though so far here in Southeast Tacoma. Only two days of freezing or below. For that matter I have only had drips and drabs of precip as well with a whopping total of just 0.26 inches. Ugh…Another below normal precip February is in the making but then again based on the ECMWF I did say that I think we will be more wet in the second half of the month. Hmm the trend is not playing out real high on that idea at the moment but we will see how things look after Saturday when the NWS says a front should usher in a colder air mass here.

      Notice Mark…I mentioned “Looks like the GFS sort of jumped on board”. I did not put it in front of ECMWF because in my belief it is a far more accurate model than the GFS.

      Okay now off to look at the Canadian GEM. My second model of choice also ahead of the GFS. ;)

    • Greg Carstens says:

      The Canadian GEM Global showing a pretty good diving pattern toward the south far from Oregon and Washington. California should get all the fun for this time period.

  29. W7ENK says:

    Grrr, the maps are all liney for me!! :(

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