10:15am…
For regular folks, read the previous post below, this is just to talk about a chart with a whole bunch of lines.
The 12z GFS is in and it looks exactly like last night’s 00z ECMWF showing a cold trough dropping over us next Monday night & Tuesday. Possibly cold enough for a dusting of snow all the way to sea level if everything works out right, but it’s a real marginal setup with most energy/precip heading farther south from Eugene into N. California. Tuesday could be a snowy drive down I-5 in SW Oregon and into the Siskiyous.
Then there are still hints that we’ll be close to snow again around Mon-Tues the 25th/26th (I know, 13 days away). Although the 12z GFS appears to be one of the coldest members of the ensemble, there are others cold too. Interesting feature to watch…since there is nothing else to do during 3 days of gloom and mild temps anyway:
1:30pm…here is the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:
2pm…and this is interesting, the 360 hour ensemble maps (about Day 15) from the GFS, 00z GEM, and ECMWF models. All very similar at the very end of the month with the average ridge position slightly farther offshore. That allows colder troughs to come much closer to the west coast. How close remains to be seen, but you can see why there would be such variation in the ensembles above depending on the ridge position.
00z Euro at Hr 168 (Day 7): Close, but no cigar.
500mb heights
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_168_0000.gif
Down to 522dm, we need sub-520, especially this time of year.
850mb temperature
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/TT_UU_VV_168_0850.gif
–5C, maybe –6C at best, we need solid below –8C, especially this time of year.
Per this, no snow, but…
Look at all that cold air in Alaska at Hr 216 (Day 9)
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_216_0000.gif
Might it move this way?
2/24. Book it.
I think the new 12z Euro suite comes out in an hour or so?
But look at that dump of winter into the Upper Midwest and headed for the East Coast again! What is that, winter blast number 4 for them in the last month? Lucky bastages…
The last few runs of the GFS have trended slightly warmer for the Monday night/Tuesday system, and show the low staying further offshore as it drops down the coast. Not the best setup for snow in the lowlands, unfortunately.
Indeed, the GFS runs are trending warmer, albeit with some crazy cold la-la-land ensembles towards the end of the run… Let’s hope those outliers drag reality their direction.
Yeah, a bit too warm over the next week for low elevation snow. 850mb temps stay warmer than -6 later Monday and Tuesday and now quite a bit of splitting showing up with that Tuesday trough. That’s why we’ve kept a snowflake out of the 7 Day Forecast for now.
What about the ECMWF?
No.
February 24th. If it’s going to happen, it’ll happen then.
Just watch.
Any interesting updates?
Ya, whats the news now about possible snow??
2/12/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:62 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
Low: 48 at Florence Municip(52 ft) & Tillamook Airpor(36 ft) & NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)
Coldest:
High:29 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
Low: 10 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 35 degrees
CRAZYMAN FLAT (45/10 ) (6100 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.96″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
0.80″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
Let’s hear Mark’s opinion on the new 00z GFS’s two most interesting ensemble members:
1. What kind of high temps do you think would come from a sunny 850mb temp of +10 the last couple days of February? (Assume light easterly flow.)
2. What kind of high/low temps from a mostly sunny 850mb temp of -12 in the first couple days of March?
1. 62-67
2. 36/18
Grazie, Mark!!!!
Mark if your a betting man should I go all in with that beautiful 1 day Friday coming up, or is it more of a moral boosting forecast for us sun starved pale skinned people?
oops, morale…….
Both!
…continue, continue…MICHAEL STOP!…continue,continue…
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Dramatic-video-shows-F4-tornado-as-it-moves-through-Mississippi-190936821.html
This was crazy, but these guys were sharp! Had it turned any earlier they might have gotten rolled. It still amazes me there were no fatalities.
…Render aid! The chase is over, the chase is over… I wanted to dump “Michael” out the back door whoever he is. MICHAEL STOP!
This will at least be good for a Portland snow panic, ALWAYS a good laugh!! ‘Trace’ amounts to nothing IMHO……..
Drivers in Portland could see the words: “trace of snow expected…” on a bill board and it would cause them to lose control…
…of their cars, that is…
…many of them have already chained themselves up…
… those folks are mostly in the Pearl…
No, only the newspeople freak out, not regular people.
Bread…and milk! Bread…and milk!
Mark, I’m not sure to which “regular people” you refer, but not many of them live around me. It’s odd that folks who seem least able to cope with a little frozen precip seem to live in the areas most prone (“prone” is such a strong word around these parts) to getting it.
(see: Forest Heights)
…and, for the record, I’ve lived up here since before there WAS a Forest Heights.
Bring it on…
I predict 2+” up here Tuesday AM.
At least I hope for that…
Maybe I’ll see some…
I could happen…
…couldn’t it?
Please let it snow on Monday! I want a white birthday!! I’ll even settle for snow in the air!!
Mark, how likely is it do you think for us to get at least 3 inches of snow on the ground before march 21st? How likely is it looking we will get snow next week?
A: 20%
B: If you define “get snow next week” as measurable in Portland? 20% If it happens it’ll be Monday night or Tuesday morning most likely.
I’m going with my previous guess of snow in the foothills and maybe splats in the air around the valley. Good skiing conditions!
I changed my mind, I’ll give next week only 15% now.
This will probably bring on some more snow envy. It’s a timelapse taken by a photographer in Hartfort CT. Watch the hands on the clock spin and note that the marks on the yardstick are at one-foot intervals.
http://wfsb.videodownload.worldnow.com/WFSB_20130209125023800AA.mp4
There exists no shade of green adequate to express my envy.
That is COOL!
National Weather Service Portland or
234 PM PST Tuesday Feb 12 2013
As the upper trough dives south and east late Sat…a period of
upper ridging may dry things out for Sunday and early Monday.
However…another more significant system looks likely to approach
the Pacific northwest late Monday into Tuesday. The current model track of this system brings a surface low onshore near the or/Washington border…with a very cold airmass moving into the region. Based on model 1000 to 500 mb thicknesses and 850 mb temperatures…it appears that snow levels will drop
well down into the Cascade foothills and Coast Range. Model
agreement is actually quite good on this system given how far out it
in the extended it is. Will need to monitor closely over the next
few days due to lower elevation snow potential. Pyle
Pyle the snow!
I know everyone on here tends to error on the side of caution in regards to low-elevation winter precipitation, however, I have a good feeling about these maps. If nothing else, a little hope can’t hurt!
I just added the 12z ECMWF chart onto the post, hit REFRESH
Still cloudy up here, but it’s not drizzling or raining which is nice.
The clouds are brighter though.
Somewhat balmy too, 48 degrees.
Mostly sunny?!? up here for the last hour or so – pretty nice surprise considering the NWS forecast this AM.
49.3 – almost balmy in the sun.
Thanks again, Mark!
At this point, the best straws we can grasp at – for those metro area folk – are snowflakes in the air, bark-dust getting covered events. Unfortunately, these troughs forecast are coming out of the Gulf of Alaska, with no easterly arctic air supporting.
It is very difficult to reach even 30 degrees or less near the valley floor during these events.
But if this is all we’ve got left, let’s take it and hope for a late-February miracle!
Nah, all we need is enough of a ridge behind the low, cold enough air pouring in from the Great White North, short over water trajectory = Winter Wonderland! Hahaah! (heading out for some dark bark-dust)
I agree and with the troughs coming down from Alaska we get that dreaded southerly flow on the surface:/
If the low’s dropping down the coast, the south wind will shut off about the time it gets off our coast. The bigger potential problem, is too much over water travel, and all the moisture heading south/offshore of us (as per Mark’s post).
‘Poose, does snow not stick to gravelly plains?
It does stick quite well to my rock garden (constructed with rocks off the Gravelly Plains). Dark bark-dust is better though! Hahaah!
Yes, hope for the miracle indeed. But if you remember last march, I got about an inch or two for snow then, so I wouldn’t go so far as to say “grasping at straws” for a dusting, but yes, winter does seem to be coming to a close.
We are going to get snow.
When? Let’s hear your forecast Ben!
Mark, it’s just a feeling. Just like it was a feeling that the Ravens were going to win the Superbowl. Some areas are going to 1-3 inches next week.
There ain’t gonna be no show. Oops I meant snow.
You in
I meant to put that below
You in!
Who’s on first?
The ‘Poose is loose…
..I don’t know…