Here you go, the twice weekly one month maps from last night’s ECMWF run.
And here is the 12z ECWMF ensemble chart. Snow levels very low about 9 days from now (NEXT Tuesday-Wednesday) briefly as a cold trough passes by. Then slightly warmer until Days 12-16 when some members show ridging closer to us for warmer temps but other members show more cold troughing.
Here’s the chart:
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Why do people “thank Mark for the update”
Thanks for the update, Mark.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/back-home-with-the-long-range-forecast-model-update/6021731
Welp, expect it to be warm and wet now.
Winter isn’t over. After having to sit on the sidelines watching the East USA endure another potential big ticket winter storm toward the end of this week, looks like we may see snow levels below 2000′ for much of the following week. I say 50/50 chance of snow to valley floor before the end of the month.
Cliff Mass really took it to the US Govt for misappropriation of resources by the NOAA/NWS……might as well use the computers to forecast weather for the next week on Titan while you’re at it. Looks like the high temperature there tomorrow will be -282C, with a low of -300C…chance of methane showers, possibly heavy at times. Warmer on Wednesday with a high of -280C.
What’s a methane shower?
Anyone got the link for the Titan Forecast System Ensembles?…don’t want to get carried away looking at the operational runs….you know what happens when you do that.
Saturn’s moon Titan, atmosphere high in methane, temperatures cold enough to turn it to liquid, radar images of the surface show possible oceans of liquid methane. No smoking!
Don’t you mean -280F? There’s no such thing as -280C, because absolute zero is -273.16C…
Also not a good idea to introduce oxygen into the atmosphere Erik.
You’re right…absolute zero C is -273. Got carried away looking at computer model maps and did not bother to use F.
Interesting, as my kids were introducing far too much methane gas into our living room atmosphere last night! In meterology terms, I believe it’s called the pre-teen effect…
I look into my late winter crystal (smudged plastic) ball and I see blowing and drifting drizzle inside of day 10. T Record amounts of drizzle coming our way. The GFN (PNW’s very own (Good For Nothin) 00z, 6, and 12 show the time finally moving up. TWC will name it something like Drizzleagedon 2013. Mark will make a new graphic for this epic event and it will show one slug, two slugs, or three slugs, using his new slug-chill chart. It’s the measure of moss, warm rain, and the success of slugs mating. Well, that’s our late winter round-up folks.
Starting to love that 7 day forecast at the end. Highs in the mid 40′s and lows close to freezing. The start of a mild arctic blast!
For snow,right?
Remarkable agreement in the Ensembles out 6 days.
Poose, you in!?
All!
Not everybody
Ditto
Setting up for a cold, wet nasty March. Just when everybody is wanting the sunshine
Exactly right! When we all say “If this pattern were here in January we’d have had a week of snow!”
It’s the ECMWF folks, we’re getting snow.
Going to be close for sure!
Ensemble chart, Mark?
That’s what happens when you write a post while hearing a show in one ear and talking to your coworker at the same time. I just added it. Sorry.
Still pretty good multi-tasking I must say.
Reminds me of getting my Costco list half-right, then hearing “… And you can take back the 80″ TV – that wasn’t on the list…”
Thanks for the new post, Mark. Did you forget to post the 12Z ECMWF ensemble chart?
So there is still a chance to see snow?!?!?!
We might see some flakes in the air in a week or two, but I’m afraid accumulating snow is very unlikely this late in the season, at least in the Willamette Valley.
Yawn…Bring on a ridge…well, we still need some rain, maybe just overnight heavy showers?