12z GFS Ensemble Chart

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Interesting to note the GFS operational is colder than any of its ensemble runs later next week, but the warmest beyond 11-12 days.  Many ensemble members are hinting at ridging farther offshore for colder weather by Valentine’s Day.

36 Responses to 12z GFS Ensemble Chart

  1. Marcus says:

    00z GFS looks good to me ridging seems to start off close to us then heads north west somewhere between 160and 150w allowing some cold air to spill down to the PNW not sure if there will be moisture but I like this trend we have seen it on three straight GFS runs:) but it is the the GFS???? Almost to the point when we will start seeing if the euro follows this trend:)

  2. CPC has the right idea for February-march-April. I’d suggest leaving the barbecue in it’s snug cover in the garage until after fourth of July. Repeat after me: PEE DEE OHH

    • Maybe by 2021 or 2022 we’ll actually have a slightly-above-climo Mar-June period. Which by then should be easy to pull off, after the 30-year climo is revised slightly downward due to all these cold springs!

    • flurball says:

      Didn’t we have the same weather when it was OHH DEE PEE mode? Trend has been cold late winter/spring no mater the nina’s. Summers have been later arriving and lasting longer and traditional winters the same for a while now. I’m sure they have science to back up their prediction but there has to be a human element in there (and possibly a large one) where they are considering recent history.

  3. Looking forward to winter 2013-2014….(the modern
    1949-1950). Better luck then. Before that, let’s bring on SUMMER!!!!

  4. germantownsummit1000' says:

    Oh, yeah…

    NOW he’s back to the “cold side”.

    It seems like only yesterday — wait, it was TODAY — that Winter was over for W7EEYORE.

    Fickle, I say; not unlike the weather.

    To paraphrase (I mean quote) him: “Don’t be so quick to jump.”

    Conflicted, methinks.

  5. *BoringOregon* says:

    Come on end of the month snow storm !!

  6. SNOW! says:

    Can some one tell me how to read these maps and what they mean?

  7. Marcus says:

    18z ensembles are still cold:). Winter is not over yet!!!:)

  8. Marcus says:

    18zgfs looking nice lets hope this continues:)

  9. gratefulduck says:

    wont happen.. ridge access will end up way to close to us and we will get squat..
    At least I got a small taste of real winter here in Minneapolis this week.. sitting at 1deg with wind chills -20 to -35 .. heading home tonight though.. so much for winter
    weather satan is waiting to pick me up at pdx

  10. gidrons says:

    You have to pay to get the high res Euro stuff. PaulB was paying for a while. You can see out to 6 days at http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 and pick ECMWF under Model Data in the sidebar.

  11. Ben T says:

    Come snow come!

  12. Marcus says:

    I like the trend!!!

    • Ben T says:

      Precipitation and cold and precipitation and cold is what we need, so we can see yellow icicles when my dog has peed!

  13. W7ENK says:

    I like that one –15C member on VD! Now, if we could just get the rest of the ensemble to follow suit… and bring in some moisture, too? :)

    Actually, it’s 10 days early. The last two winters have featured a transitory cold snap on 2/24. I fully expect February 2013 to continue this trend. :lol:

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      You mean it’s 10 days better. If we end up repeating last late-Winter/early-Spring but 10 days sooner? I could live with that. Spring and Summer showing up 10 days earlier than last year would make me a happy camper.

  14. gidrons says:

    From what I’ve seen, the Euro performed a lot better this winter than the GFS. Its almost to the point where I quit looking at the GFS past 5 days.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      You in!

    • Seems like the euro does do better than the gfs. But I sure like getting the better res from the nam and gfs. Don’t have access to the “forbidden” ecmwf stuff that Mark has. I think you have to be fluent in French or German or something to get all the goodies ;)

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