ECMWF Monthly Run

A little late, but here they are, the weekly maps from Sunday night’s ECMWF run…looks pretty mild through much of February:

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500za_week4_bg_NA

And here is the 00z GFS 500mb ensemble anomaly chart for Day 15, mid February. Some ridging over us or just to the north…mild on this model. I think it’s fair to say that most likely nothing too exciting will happen in the next two weeks:

gfs_15day

66 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. Lurkyloo says:

    Spoke with a friend of mine who lives in Gardners, PA. She said that yesterday temp was in the teens and today it was near 70F. Later in the week it’s supposed to drop back down to the teens again. How’s that for a mind-warp (had a ugly word here, but didn’t want to get moderated) for the plants? They live on a huge farm …

  2. runrain says:

    If that forcasted 54 deg on Saturday pans out it’s going to feel like absolute heaven!

  3. I just want some snow, pizza, and a blazers win tonight. Is that too much to ask for?

  4. Marcus says:

    Nearly 50f with a northerly flow wow!

  5. yetanothertim says:

    Considering we have about 18 days left in the realistic valley floor “snow season”, and considering what the models show for the next couple weeks or so, it may time to stick a fork in the snow potential of the winter of 2012/13. We didn’t even really get close on any of the models to a decent snow event this year. Usually there are at least a couple very close calls. At least we got a decent snow pack and hopefully we are on our way the a dry-ish warm spring

    • David B. says:

      Yup, stick a fork in it :-( .

    • Ben T says:

      Stick a spork in it because it’s not quite fork territory!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree, it’s looking very unlikely we’re going to see any sort of fantasy “arctic blast” that lasts for 3+ days. But there’s no reason we can’t get a surprise snowstorm beyond the 10th. Unlikely, but possible. And I mean a real snowstorm, like February 1995 or 1993. Not the wet overnight/AM stuff like last March.

    • Ben T says:

      I think now we’re done with chances of a big arctic event as well. Day after day nothing wants to form. But big non-arctic snowstorms are still good and worthwhile!

    • Ben says:

      I disagree … I think winter still has something up it sleeve …. Remember it seems like we say this every year then we get nailed in late Feb or March …. Look at what happened last year … I mean it’s possible that winter is over but I highly doubt it considering we are in a neutral year ………………..

    • Ben T says:

      A fellow Ben and someone I agree with.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I’m hoping that we get nailed in February and March too… But absolutely, positively not like last year. Around here, we didn’t get “nailed”, we saw no more than a quarter inch of sticking snow (at my house) in March. All it really was, was just annoyingly cold that left a massively sour taste in my mouth that hasn’t actually been washed out.

      Now if we actually get nailed with at least an inch sticking for more than a few hours? That’d be awesome. Even more would be better, but beggars can’t be choosers. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s going to be the case… The models really aren’t looking in our favor for anything… And if there’s any time they’re right, it’s when it’s disappointing.

    • dothgrin says:

      If the fork is going to be stuck, then it’s time to warm it up. Let’s get back in the 50s, throw a little sun, and then time for my wife to crank back the convertible top! (That said…this has been a crazy winter nationwide…I would not be surprised if we get hit with a late winter early spring snow to tick us off)

    • Ben T says:

      It would not tick me off :)

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like the view from Timberline this AM!

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Sounds rather wild on Montana Hood!

    Short term…the Cascades are undergoing a Bona fide snowstorm this morning…with near-whiteout conditions visible on many webcams above 2500 feet elevation. Deep and strong onshore west-northwest flow continues to drive plenty of moisture into the Cascades…where it is forced upward by the terrain. This is producing a continuous snow machine…especially for the Washington and north Oregon Cascades.
    Snow reports so far range from 6-16 inches in the Lane County
    Cascades to upwards of 3 feet at Sheep Canyon snotel on Montana St helens…and at Timberline Lodge according to the latest odot snow report which came in prior to midnight. Santiam Pass and Government Camp are likely over 2 feet over the past 2 days. Will send out a public information statement with snow totals within the next couple hours. Keep in mind it is still snowing hard in most of our Cascades…so amounts up to this point are definitely not final.
    Snowfall rates overnight have been up to 2 inches per hour at
    times…with considerable blowing and drifting of snow especially in the higher elevations where the snow is more powdery and winds are stronger. The northwest avalanche center site near White Pass has reported winds in excess of 80 miles per hour…granted this is at 5900 feet elevation. The
    Montana Hood Meadows site has reported winds gusting over 50 miles per hour and it is very likely winds are stronger further up Montana Hood. The combination of strong winds and heavy snow are creating downright dangerous conditions to be outside above 3000 feet elevation…and will continue to do so well into this morning.
    The system responsible for this event is not even a well-defined low pressure system. Instead the culprit is simply a tight onshore
    pressure gradient between strong high pressure offshore and fairly weak waves of low pressure diving down from British Columbia into eastern Washington. This setup has ratcheted up the onshore pressure gradient to around +17 mb from koth-kgeg…and the majority of this gradient lies along the Cascades. The steep gradient is driving 60 to 80 knots of west-northwest wind between 800-700 mb. Combine this with some isentropic lift and fairly deep moisture coming down from the Gulf of Alaska and the
    ingredients are perfect for the type of snow event we are seeing.

    http://www.wunderground.com/US/OR/006.html#PUB

  8. Marcus says:

    A flood advisory posted??? For La Center!

  9. ErinK says:

    Have we ever had such a mild winter and February starting with 50 degree temps, then got a good snow in late Feb or march?

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      February 1989. It was warm all month except for a handful of days in the middle where temps dipped to near 10 in some areas.

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      DOH…not 1989…I must have my years mixed up…

    • ocpaul says:

      1989– the last really cold February recorded in Portland. Coldest days were Feb. 2 and 3, with frigid highs of 15 and.18, and lows of 9 and 11, then Feb. 5 also hit a low of 9… (amazingly, January 30th had had a high of a balmy 56 degrees, and early January had gotten as high as 60!)

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Erin, this has actually been the coldest January in 20 years at PDX and for the West overall. So not exactly a “mild” winter so far. Just chilly and pretty inactive as a whole for the last month.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Tyler I think you’re thinking of February 1995. PDX had a record low of 16 that Valentine’s Day and was cold the middle of the month but besides that 4-5 day spell the rest of the month was almost Spring like.

      February 1989 on the other hand was one of our coldest on record with a mega arctic outbreak the first few days of the month then generally chilly weather for the remainder. Then of course early March 1989 also had some snow and arctic air with highs in the 30s and lows below 20 even for PDX.

    • ErinK says:

      What is the likleyness that the models are totally wrong? Can they change quickly? How often does that happen?

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      I’d say that the models occasionally do swing rather wildly, however, they usually swing from an extreme event to more climatology (ie today would be highs near 50, good chance of rain).

      To swing from a climatology type forecast to extreme heat/snow/precip is fairly rare.

    • ErinK says:

      Sorry, I’m just trying to hold out as much hope as I can for a huuge snow event :-) Thanks for the info.

  10. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Nearly 2″ of rain here since noon on Sunday.

  11. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Very disappointing … again!

  12. W7ENK says:

    Hopefully some warm temperatures to boot! I’m with EY and BGB, if we can’t get the snow, then let’s move on to the warmth!

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      Why? It’ll be plenty warm during Spring, Summer and Fall. It’s not even February yet!

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Exactly. It’s like wanting it to be 45 degrees in August. A lot of us live here in part because we have four distinct seasons and like that.

    • W7ENK says:

      Why? Why not?? We can’t get the cold anomalies when it’s supposed to be cold out, so maybe hoping for some early onset warm anomalies when it’s not supposed to be warm out makes a bit of sense??? Who know’s, maybe it’ll just happen to work out in our favor, or maybe it will lead into a more normal spring and summer, absent all the shiddy 45 degree rain in June this year! Besides, it’s no different than looking forward to a cold and snowy winter when the pumpkins are still green. And how many folks on here do that? A good lot of them. Don’t be so quick to jump.

    • Unfortunately, the record high for February is only 70F and daily record highs are consistently in the low 60s and upper 50s well through the first half of the month.

      If you’re waiting for an early spring, you’ll have to settle for the mid-50 degree weather later this week.

    • gidrons says:

      60 degrees would feel like 80 after the last few months

    • W7ENK says:

      Yes, I’m well aware of the averages and records for this (any) time of year, thank you. 60s and sunshine will do just fine for me. :)

  13. Ben T says:

    As far fetched as it is. I’m still holding out hope for snow! I’m in!

  14. Ben T says:

    And so it continues…

  15. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Maybe I’m the craziest one here…

    …But I’d be 110% fine with no snow this year if we had a decent Spring that started right on time.

    At this point, it doesn’t look like we’ll have any good snow. So instead of hoping for it, getting the cold rain showers and, at best, slushy snow; I’m going to hope that we have an average Spring that has more warm days than the last 4 combined.

    But hey, apparently I’m the crazy one.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Should mention that I’d be fine with no snow in the January – March, 2013 period. Once we hit November/December? I’d love to see 2 feet of it.

  16. bgb41 says:

    I am very pleased to see a mild February this year. With the death of La Nina hopefully this year spring will start earlier and not be so wet and cold.

  17. bgb41 says:

    1/28/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:49 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & BANDON(79 ft)
    Low: 45 at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & 6 other stations.

    Coldest:
    High:17 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at UNITY DAM AND BU (3758 ft ) & MT. HOWARD (7910 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 24 degrees
    UNITY DAM AND BU (32/8 ) (3758 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.83″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    2.17″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)
    2.10″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    2.05″ at DW9126 Brightwoo(1336ft)
    2.01″ at Government Camp(3600ft)

  18. IceCold says:

    In the words of the Scottish Mike Meyers from SNL ….”If it’s not snow it’s CRAP!”

  19. Looks like I’ll have a good opportunity to shoot for a February sunburn this year!

  20. wwm says:

    am I in?

  21. Sifton says:

    Looks like I’m out!

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