Time For A Poll: Snow This Winter?

It’s been way too long since we’ve done a poll.  How about this…Will it Snow in Portland this Winter?  Yes, I know we’ve had a few close calls but no actual accumulation yet here in the city.

  • The official observing site is in Parkrose at the NWS Office.
  • They have recorded a TRACE 4 times, but nothing measurable (.1″ or more).
  • Dec 15th & 31st,   Jan 10th & 14th were the traces.

Here are the snow totals for the past 13 winters here in Portland:

WINTERWXMEET2012
Most of last winter’s total was in March.  In 3 of the past 5 winters we have seen measurable snow in March.  However, in the previous 13, it only snowed once!  Interesting eh?

By the way, to make things a bit more fair for the non-weather watcher, I don’t see a snow producing pattern in the next 7-10 days.  At least very few models are showing that.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

185 Responses to Time For A Poll: Snow This Winter?

  1. JJ97222 says:

    Runrain is right the last couple days are depressing and cold with no snow. The sunshine I experienced in San Antonio last week does make it easier to move there at the end of the school year. I just hope we have a drier spring to get my house ready for sale.

  2. Mark says:

    Based on the latest long-range model runs (take your pick), it looks perilously close to the time when we start truly ask the question: Is Winter Over for Portland-Metro?

    We can certainly have some shifts in the pattern arrive late February, but they are few and far between, and do not last long (too much sun).

    Any arctic air seems bottled up into Siberia or Hudson’s Bay, only to dissipate into Spring…

    My guess is:
    Mark Nelson is gearing up to deliver the “Winter’s Over” blog post, telling us to focus on our spring break plans, while making sure our pruning shears are ready to go.

    • Ben T says:

      Winter’s Over Post followed by a snowstorm and people(most likely including me) saying winter is not over we just got dumped by 3 inches of snow. To which Mark Nelsen replies, “I said we are not likely to see an arctic blast with a prolonged period of snow and cold.”

    • I know it’s a ways out. Hour 216 to be exact but it’s something to keep an eye on for a bit.

  3. PDX Weather Nut says:

    11 of the last 13 winters below the normal of 4″ snowfall? Yikes!

  4. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Wow, only two winters since 99-00 have had our normal 4″ of snowfall? We are way overdue for a decent snowfall! The last one was in December of 2008. I’m not sure how they recorded 3″+ last winter at the recording station in Parkrose. Here at the house in NE Portland we only got brief dustings last winter, nothing that would add up to 3″+.

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      I think they got about 2″ in the wee hours of the morning on January 18th. The other snowfall was in March. Salem probably had about 6″ or so last year. They had about 1/2-1″ in January and then several light snowfalls in early March then 3-4″ on March 21st. Eugene had 7.5″ last March 21st.

  5. wwm says:

    snowing since yesterday at noon, been alternating between rain mixed and snow the last hour or so. We have managed to pick up close to 7″ total. Temp hovering around 33* to 34*

    very difficult getting up the driveway even in 4 wheel drive, snow is the wet heavy kind.

    • What is your location and elevation?

    • wwm says:

      Andrew,

      We live on Larch Mt. right around 1800 ft., wish i could figure out how to post pics on this thing.

      are you seeing any snow? I thought you lived in the west hills? maybe that was somebody else.

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      Oh right on. I live at 1600 near Silver Falls State Park about 25 miles east of Salem. You are probably thinking of the other Andrew who used to live in the West Hills.

      He had about an 1.5″ of snow last night. This morning it was alternating between snow and a mix, but it was a couple degrees above freezing. I haven’t been home since about 11am, but I would imagine its probably in the mid-30s up there.

    • vernonia1 says:

      @ wwm upload your pictures to something like photocket.com or ??? then you can post the link here

  6. I picked up 1.5″ of snow last night. Nice to see, but then it stopped around 10pm and this morning it was raining pretty heavily with some wet snow mixed in and temps in the mid-30s. Down in Salem now, its about 43 here with some drizzle. This pattern is really squeezing out the moisture over the higher terrain. I had ..90″ of precip for the 24hr period ending at 6am. I’ve have picked up almost 3″ of precip now in the past 72hrs.

    • I have not tabulated my January stats for awhile, but I should be somewhere over about 5″ of precip for the month. Average is 10″. After last nightt we are up to 4″ of snowfall on the month and 14″ on the season. Last January I recorded 32.3″ of snowfall and 19.23″ of precip. Last January was also about 4-5 degrees warmer than this year.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      Wow! Sure wish we could get some of that snow in town here in PDX instead of our dreary cold rain!!

  7. runrain says:

    Almost like snow!

  8. Marcus says:

    The GFS is still warm tho but good thing the GFS is not the most reliable!

    • Ben T says:

      GFS should stand for Greatly Forecasts Stupidly. And the ECMWF– Easily Comforts Mom’s With Fiveyearolds.

  9. Mat the Salmon Killer says:

    At least the 00z and now the 12z euro are showing signs of good things at ends of runs.

    • Marcus says:

      I noticed that too here’s to hoping:)

    • Ron says:

      Sadly all winter long it has been at the end of the run, always JUST10 days out. Maybe we can beat the odds once but odds are never in our favor in this Pacific maritime climate.

    • Ben T says:

      Neither were they in 2008 either. I long for tropical moisture and a prolonged arctic front that drops an inch of snow per hour :)

    • Ben T says:

      Fortunately when it comes to having a big storm the odds are becoming greater for it to happen.

    • Ron says:

      All the models locked onto the snow and cold and everyday as the time frame moved up the pattern locked in. Most of the time and certainly for MOST times, these cold patterns float around in the 10 day time frame and do not move up. Yes, once in a while it does happen, but in this climate model riding is almost futile. Do I do it, yes. I always hope. But realistically if it doesn’t show up on most or all the model runs, the operational, the ensembles, and move up day to day, it probably isn’t gonna happen. Just how it is. If it’s not inside of day 6,7 I give it little more than a glance.
      We can always throw out, “It happened in 2008, or it happened in 1968, etc. Odds are now better that we will have a repeat 1949-50. 60+ years later here we are, . . . still counting the odds in favor of another such event. Odds really don’t mean a thing in this climate. We simply don’t live in that kind of climate where it happens with anything even close to regularity. We all know that! Look at the snowfall averages for PDX for Dec., Jan., and Feb. Pretty bleak. But hope is a good thing. Hope I’m wrong.

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      I find it amazing that January 49 and 50′ occurred back to back. Just amazing.

  10. rebeccamo1 says:

    Been snowing ever since yesterday around noon, very wet but is really accumulating, roughly 7″ on the ground.

    temp still hovering around 33-34 range.

  11. runrain says:

    Yesterday and today could be the two most awful days weatherwise. Cold, but not cold enough to snow, and wall to wall gray and drippy. The rainfall rate can’t even generate any intensity. Can it get any worse boring and comfort wise?

  12. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    39 with 0.19″ of rain so far today.

  13. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Temperature spread of 0.4 degrees so far today.

    Looks like this January will go down as my coldest and most wind-less (also the most fog).

  14. bgb41 says:

    1/27/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:48 at WARM SPRINGS BAS(1563 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & DW9370 Portland(98 ft) & CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft) & CW1244 Pendleton(1145 ft) & Brookings (US 10(150 ft)
    Low: 42 at NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:14 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 7 at ANTELOPE (6460 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    ECHO (47/22 ) (758 ft )
    KLAMATH NWR (40/15) (4531 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.14″ at CW6568 Charlesto(38ft)
    1.12″ at CW5925 Coos Bay(49ft)

  15. Marcus says:

    Maybe something in the works for the 00z euro hrs 192-240 ridge near 160w again and a northerly flow for the pnw but dont see alot of cold to our north during that time we shall see where it ends up!

  16. chris says:

    Wow that’s some ice!

    • W7ENK says:

      That’s the bullet we dodged last Wednesday. You can see how that might be problematic for drivers…

  17. geo says:

    http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/Cam.asp?camera=1655&curRegion=1 Looks like snow coming down at lee’s camp 600ft. thru the light.

  18. Coldest January at The Dalles in 9 years + partially frozen ground for much of the past month + still a few patches of old stale snow from Christmas time = DAFFODIL STALKS ALREADY RISING?!?

    • JJ97222 says:

      All my daffodils are up and with rising temps coming by the end of the week the rush to cliff should be all most thundering. I remember 95 that was the year of my first daughter’s birth we were getting the home ready and the spring and summer were beautiful. One cold spell in mid Feb then nice till October, ya baby hopefully we can break the cycle of crappy springs. Please!

  19. wwm says:

    after flirting with snow most of the morning it changed over to all snow around 12:30, temp has dropped from 35 to 33* since then. Accumulating quite nicely now, trees are looking quite flocked.

  20. runrain says:

    Kind of chilly out there. 38.5 deg and I notice it is snowing at 1,500 feet as seen on the road cam at Arlie Mitchell Rd. on Hwy 26. I thought we were going to see mid 40’s today. Bit breezy out there as well.

  21. paulbeugene says:

    First part of February looks 1995ish to me…that month in PDX had 24 of 28 days above 50F (8 in 60s)…we happened to have that brief but dramatic winter weather episode in the middle…

    • Sifton says:

      I like what you see Paulie!!

    • bgb41 says:

      We were discussing Feb 1995 in the facebook group because it dropped to 16 degrees mid-month yet 22/28 of the days were above normal. It ended up reaching 67 on the 23rd just 9 days after the mid-teens. Here is a snapshot of Feb 1995

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Dear Paul:

      …Please deliver. A forecast of even 4 days above 60 in February makes me happy. After looking at it, Feb. 1995 looked like nearly the perfect February for me: Cold snap, warm overall and about average rainfall.

      Too bad I’m still betting on a blah, dry and average temperature February and a hyper cold March, April and May.

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Might be able to drive to the mountain, for some snow excitement!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    842 am PST sun Jan 27 2013

    With all this in mind and after collaboration with surrounding
    offices…we will go ahead and issue a Winter Storm Watch Monday
    afternoon into Tuesday morning for the South Washington Cascades and north Oregon Cascades…mainly for areas north of Montana Jefferson. The strong westerly pressure gradients and 700 mb winds up to 70-80 knots will likely produce some strong wind for the ridges and passes in this area…coupled with the heavy snow blizzard conditions will be possible at times. Eventually warm advection should push snow levels up to the ski resort elevations Tuesday…but some models have backed off on how quick this happens.

    • W7ENK says:

      Who’s Montana Jefferson? Is he anything like Grizzly Adams? Little Red Mountain Hood? :mrgreen:

    • George Jefferson before he moved on up? :)

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      We’re over at Black Butte Ranch. Doing some skiing. Could be fun getting back to the valley tomorrow!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Not too far from Montana Jefferson, boydo3. Looks like you should try to come back later tomorrow! Hahaah!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      828 PM PST SUN JAN 27 2013

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
      MONDAY TO 8 AM PST TUESDAY.
      THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TRAVEL IN THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES WILL BE DIFFICULT
      TONIGHT…AND MAY BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

      A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

    • boydo3 N Albany says:

      Light snow over here tonight at Black Butte . Gonna get some fresh tracks in the morning at Hoodoo on the way home. So nice to be on the dry side of the mountains. A person could get used to this.
      Crunchy snow
      Filtered moonlight
      dry snowflakes falling

    • Mat the Salmon Killer says:

      Trust me boydo, the dryness can be just as aggravating too. Cold enough but no moisture most of the time. Opposite on the west side. Dry snow falling here in Redmond too. Not suppose to get much here but those are the days when we do. Mets here are wrong more than right for sure. Out of the seven good snowfalls this season so far, they called two. Would trade all of them here for one Mark any day.

  23. As far as the discussion earlier about the Fox 12 Blog Discussions Facebook page and whether or not to join it. That is ultimately your decision of course, but there is a lot to gain from doing so.

    There are now 462 members(and growing). You are not going to find another weather group anywhere in the Pacific Northwest with not only that kind of activity, but the comprehensive, in-depth analysis and discussion amongst many, many people. When there actually is a weather event worth discussing it’s pretty awesome indeed.

    Brian has a plethora of programs he has designed to further enhance your weather geek experience. There is very good analysis from many people including professional meteorologists and the national weather service. We discuss everything in the realm of weather from Climatology, Local observations, various computer model runs, Ensembles, Historical data, and everything else under the sun.

    There is also another side to the group which is a fun, easy going atmosphere full of sarcastic banter. It is a no-holds barred group means just about anything goes, but there is no negative intent. I think sometimes we get a little carried away and maybe a little immature :lol:, but that’s probably from a lack of snow. If you want to talk about the Blazers, Ducks, any sports, anything music related, movies, anything you want feel free to do so. OH yeah and the weather too.

    I do totally agree that Facebook can make people less personable if they become addicted to it. Unless you’re on there playing their meaningless games for 6 hours a day then it that doesn’t apply to you and I think social media can be okay in moderation. In that aspect it is really not any different from being on the Blog here.

    See you there.

    • snodaze says:

      who gives a crap about that… — just make it snow — Mr. snomiser! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGRkNaMFp6w

    • Oops. I wish there was a delete button sometimes.

      How about that 6z GFS?

      http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

    • Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

      And Jeff’s blazer posts, don’t forget those!!

    • W7ENK says:

      I think it’s so funny the people who get all spun up over Facebook, who get so upset by the “giving away personal information” BS and whatnot. They don’t magically obtain every detail of your private life simply because you signed up for an account. They only have what you give them, and all they require is a name and an e-mail address. Don’t want to give them that much? Make a new e-mail, use a fake name, put up a photo of your dog or your house plant… it’s really that simple! And don’t post anything about yourself you wouldn’t post here. You control the content you put out there, and you even control who sees it. The paranoia is overspent, there are much bigger demons in this world to worry about than Mark Zuckerberg’s senior project.

    • Ben T says:

      You hit on it perfectly Rob. While yes Facebook can become addicting to some people. In the same way, you can be addicted to posting on this blog and not spending time with actual people. It’s 6’s.

    • Perhaps they do not wish to engage in activity with a company that places so little value on privacy, and have torn families apart with addictive games that sap the very life out of people like a drug. I have personal experience with loved ones who, for some reason, could not use moderation and lost their jobs and ruined relationships because of it. Please respect other people in their own personal decisions, there really are facebook horror stories out there. Paranoia has nothing to do with it. I guess it doesn’t surprise me that people get defensive over their beloved time/life wasting vice. It is hard for some to fathom that there are people out there who do not follow the trends and whims of today’s society. By all means, enjoy facebook and twitter, just don’t down on people for not exhibiting herd mentality, especially when they have seen it destroy lives./end rant. Now, how about those rain showers eh? : )

    • Marc (East Vancouver) says:

      Well said, Dave.

    • bgb41 says:

      Hey Rob, really appreciated the group plug and thank you very much for the kind words. We have 468 members now. Mark Nelsen has helped this group grow immensely the past year. This group was born on March 15 2011 and has been growing ever since. If interested send a request to the following link and we will approve you immediately.

      https://www.facebook.com/groups/fox12.blog.discussions/

    • momof2kiddos says:

      It’s a nice group, except when it’s not. Some of the stuff that goes on in there gets old fast.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Y’all come back now y’hear?

    • gidrons says:

      My employer blocked facebook because a co-worker was spending too much work time on it. The co-worker got fired and last I heard, she still doesn’t have a job.

    • Ignore everything I typed about the Facebook Group. Enjoy your Evening.

    • Ben T says:

      What’s wrong with what you said Rob?

    • I left the group and wish I could delete my post. I am not going to disclose information here as we all just need to move along and I am doing so. Enjoy the rainy, dreary night.

  24. bgb41 says:

    1/26/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:53 at DUNES( 120 ft) & DW9370 Portland(98 ft)
    Low: 43 at Florence Municip(52 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:19 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 11 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    MCDERMITT 26N (51/22 ) (4464 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.85″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

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