End of the Cold, Briefly Warm, Then Chilly Again

11am Monday…

The Gorge is warming quickly this morning.  The western Gorge warmed overnight, in fact this morning’s 47 is the warmest I’ve seen in over two weeks.  Here’s my temperature trace:

vws1771

It’s amazing how quickly ice can disappear when it’s that warm too, now the warm air is arriving in the eastern Gorge as the pressure gradient goes westerly.  Parkdale just jumped from 34 to 47 in 90 minutes!  The rest of you at the lower elevations from Hood River to The Dalles will see the warming “Chinook” wind soon.

So now it’s on to a warm front Tuesday morning, a very warm day Tuesday…well into the 50s in the warm sector.  Then a sharp cold front late Tuesday night or just before daybreak Wednesday.  So two wet days ahead, although much of Tuesday will see rain north of Portland and dry south.

Okay, so let’s move on to what everyone is REALLY interested in…IS IT GOING TO SNOW AT SEA LEVEL LATER THIS WEEK?  Maybe, or maybe not…you like that answer?

Here we go again with another extremely frustrating pattern for snow lovers, cold showers coming in from the northwest behind the cold front Wednesday.  They taper off quite a bit Wednesday night and Thursday morning. 

The atmosphere is cold enough IF we get decent showers later Wednesday night through Friday for snow to stick all the way to sea level. 

  • In this case, high pressure builds strongly well offshore (at the surface), so it’s more of a north-northwest wind coming down the coastline instead of the strong westerlies (onshore flow) that accompanies most of these situations; as a result we don’t get a good (mild) mixing with a southwest wind we often see.  That’s a plus.
  • But, moisture is severely lacking (as of this morning’s model runs) in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington anytime after Wednesday evening.  This is the reason I’m not real excited for anything other than a dusting from Salem north during this period (Wednesday Night-Friday).
  • As of now, the best spot for lower elevation snow appears to be Eugene down to Medford as upper level energy comes down the coastline and heads toward northern California.
  • The path the upper-level disturbances take down the coastline could easily change; when we’re that close to snow temp-wise, a slight change could mean the difference between a widespread 1-2″ of snow and nothing.  Stay Tuned!

Beyond Friday night, all models warm up the atmosphere enough that snow would be unlikely and/or there is no moisture to generate precipitation.  That could change of course since we’ve seen such variation on models beyond that period.

On Friday’s posting I talked about how models were having big issues deciding where to place a building upper-level ridge off the West Coast in the long range.  They seem to be in good agreement now that the ridge will be very close to the coastline through the foreseeable future. 

So the whole package can be boiled down to this sentence:

Rainy and mild for a couple of days, then a brush with low elevation snow showers Thursday-Saturday, then on to mainly or all dry weather through next week.  That’ll take us through mid January.  Does that mean winter is over?  No, for all we know the arctic blast of the century is coming on January 28th (I just made that up).  I will continue to tell Wayne Garcia to not bother putting on his studded tires though.  A morning dusting or 1″ is no big deal for later this week, we’ve already done that back in December.

I did tell my family that the cold spell the past week was probably the coldest of the winter if we don’t get an arctic blast in the next 4 weeks.

Here are a bunch of maps, the first 3 are the 10 day maps showing 500mb ensemble heights next Wednesday, the 16th from the GFS, GEM, & ECMWF.  All very similar with the ridge quite close to us:

gfs

gem

ecmwf

Then the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF 850mb ensemble charts showing fewer members today that are really cold compared to 1 or 2 days ago.  That said, just a few still want to push the ridge farther west and bring arctic air south over us next Monday or Tuesday:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

122 Responses to End of the Cold, Briefly Warm, Then Chilly Again

  1. ErinK says:

    Soo, any updates? We still SOL on the snow?? :-(

  2. bgb41 says:

    1/7/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at CORVALLIS( 308 ft) & DW7774 Roseburg(446 ft) & MADRAS(2441 ft) & DW9755 Eugene(377 ft) & DW9913 Cheshire(466 ft)
    Low: 48 at KA7EMS-1 Hillsbo(207 ft) & DW8735 Yachats(92 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:18 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -1 at Rome (4049 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Rome (36/-1 ) (4049 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.14″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  3. W7ENK says:

    The silence in here is almost deafening, it must really be over, huh?

  4. Mat the Salmon Killer says:

    Mark, what are u thinking about Redmond out of all this? Meaning for the next week or so. Warm here today too, 49 degrees and melted alot of the snow. Thanks Mark

  5. Marcus says:

    Ok what is our chances of seeing snow in the air non sticking snow? Lol

  6. As we move past Friday the problem will be the longwave persistent deep trough extending down into the southwestern US and edging into the central Plains. It’s just blocking the pattern keeping our ridge in place just off the west Coast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

    Another issue is the southern stream energy is digging near 160 W into our ridge. You want the jet suppressed back near 170 W closer to the date line with the ridge axis near 160 W.

    Nothing you want to see when looking at 500mb pattern if you’re hoping for retrogression. The end of the GFS runs shows that trough finally kicking out, the pattern becoming transitory and zonal.

    Then the offshore ridge tries to rebuild further offshore in a more favorable location. That COULD lead to something really good the end of the month.

    • Mark says:

      Well put Rob. This is the overall consensus from the models, with outliers running all over the place (all too typical this time of year)… So we can cheery pick if we want, but your description seems very likely right now.

  7. WEATHERDAN says:

    Just suppose that Western Oregon gets 1-3 inches of snow down low ( Valley Floor ), and areas above 500 feet get 2-4 inches by Saturday. Then a strong ridge develops just off the coast with Northerly winds. A strong dome of cold air develops East of the Cascades. Arctic air pours into Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon. Cold air outflows from the Fraser river and the Columbia Gorge. Now with a snowpack East of the Cascades and Arctic air might not some area in the Eastern Oregon Highlands drop to minus 30 degrees. And Eastern Washington drop to minus 20 degrees. With those things happening to our East even though we have what some call a fake cold, might we not see highs in the 30’s with lows of 13-23. A great setup for a ZR event when moisture comes back. And if moisture rides over the top of the ridge might it not drop the freezing level back down much lower, which combined with the cold air entrenched down low give us some more snow down to very low levels in Western Oregon. In the latest GFS models I see the jet stream taking the ridge close to but still just off the coast. Not an ideal situation for an Arctic outbreak right away, but still giving us cool Northerly winds. For those of us who want some snow and cold this is far from an ideal setup. But it is beginning to look like we will get some exciting weather out of all this. Perhaps this is all just wishful thinking on my part, but I think all of us will get some snow. Perhaps only a dusting by Saturday. Many wiil get 1-2 inches, and some will get as many as 4 inches if a heavy shower fall over their area. Then it turns colder next week. Fake or not. We shall see.

  8. SNOW! says:

    Mark, at this point, what do you think our percentage is of getting at least an inch of snow on the ground?

  9. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Tonight’s 00Z GFS is ugly through hour 168, unless you like upper 30’s & rain showers.

  10. paulbeugene says:

    NAM mm5 not showing any low snow during the time of or the few hours following frontal passage on Wednesday morning…will wait to see what GFS shows….RPM model not showing snow on 18z run in the next 72 hours (valley floor that is).

  11. Mark Nelsen says:

    I see several of you talking about ratings down below. Here’s the real scoop; you are overanalyzing it.

    Lets say we have a 5″ snow event on a Thursday 8am-Noon as an example.

    I’ve never noticed any noticeable ratings bump in the days leading up to it. So no, Monday and Tuesday’s ratings won’t be any higher than normal. But if it’s well “known” that it’s going to snow the next day? Then ratings definitely go up a little for the evening newscasts just before the storm. In this case it would be Wednesday night. Once snow starts falling…that’s when ratings go crazy high. They stay every high as long as the event is ongoing. So our morning show on that Thursday will see ratings through the roof. Still pretty high Thursday evening, especially if it snows and the snow hasn’t melted. Now if it changes to rain at 2pm and it’s all over by evening? Big drop in ratings; still higher than normal, but 50% of the public assumes it’ll stay rain and the “event” is over.
    By the following day (Friday) ratings are back to normal.
    The key here is that ratings only go crazy during and very close to an actual event. 24 hours before or 24 hours after don’t show anything dramatic ratings-wise generally.

  12. Marcus says:

    All the news channels are saying rain developing sat are we not going to be cold enough for snow?

  13. 00z MM5-NAM
    12km Sounding(PDX)
    7:00 AM Thursday

  14. HVmike says:

    So should we stick a “Fork” in it – this snow event or not?

  15. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    What’s with the 45/35 days the last few days of the 7-day. Those lows seem pretty high. I would think something more like 45/25 would be reasonable, or even 40/25.

  16. thomyee says:

    I like to look at the AFD’s in the area. All Westside AFD’s say some snow to valley floor. Medford AFD has this in it:

    AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE…SHORT WAVES PLUNGING DOWN THE
    BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG JUST INLAND FROM THE
    COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COMING OUT OF
    BRITISH COLUMBIA…AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THURSDAY
    INTO FRIDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING
    AT +5 TO +8C TUESDAY EVENING…THEN PLUNGING TO -6 TO -8C FRIDAY
    MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SINCE THE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP THE POST-
    FRONTAL SHOWERS GOING INTO FRIDAY…THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW
    LEVEL SNOW EVENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

  17. alohabb says:

    Wind storm on coast tomorrow???

  18. Sorry for my unusual laziness today with analysis, I just didn’t feel like it :lol: .. I did earlier briefly look at 12z WRF and Soundings, but yep just didn’t bother.

    So, Snow Saturday?
    12z WRF Sounding(PDX)

    Air mass totally saturated below 750mb with dry layer in upper levels. Temps 0c 975mb upwards… Yeah, this is looks like wet snow for sure. Slushy accumulations possible everywhere, but true sticking snow a tad higher 500′

    Some decent precip available as well
    3 Hour Precip model

  19. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    51 today, warmest since December 4th.

  20. *BoringOregon* says:

    Wow, noaa.gov is saying snow for us Wednesday night through Friday night !!

  21. paulbeugene says:

    The models still fluctuating a bit on snow for late this week/weekend. I am not going to bite yet. Seems more likely that we are headed to another, more prolonged, possibly even colder fake cold pattern next week…this time with a stronger cold air mass taking hold over the interior northwest/northern rockies of USA and SW Canada. A rex block pattern as depicted on some model runs (with cross polar flow into the prairies of Canada and northern great plains) could easily give us highs in the 30s, lows in 15-25 range.

    If there happens to be widespread snow…even just a few inches…over the interior of WA/OR E of Cascades that would be a prime setup for another cold period….a fake one that is. Even if we were lucky enough to get snow in lowlands west of cascades…it probably would melt and would not contribute to the temps next week.

    • David C says:

      I value your analysis as always, and I would like to know (as a still struggling model reader) what is missing for a decent event. Is it the Rex block, path of low, or what? And what the **** IS a Rex block? Can you post a pic of an example? Would fake cold be enough to allow for snow from a passing disturbance, or would the cold air be too shallow for snow from upper level to valley floor?

    • gidrons says:

      A rex block is high pressure over the top of a low. Snow is possible from fake cold, usually as an over running event where the precip falls into cold dry air. It has happened many times but usually doesn’t last long.
      I don’t see as big of an east wind this time, at least not on the Euro, but I’ll defer to Paul’s and Rob’s expertise.

    • Completely agree with this, Paul. I have been suggesting for many days a possible setup with an even colder pool over the Columbia Basin with another east wind episode, possibly very strong.

    • David B. says:

      Even another “fake cold” period of dry days would be nice in my book. I would have liked the one that happened around New Year’s Day to have lasted a bit longer.

      Then on to the arctic blast later this month :-) .

  22. David c says:

    I have a slightly different take on weather story “ratings”. It would seem to me that the moment it starts snowing, or traffic begins to get crazy, that THAT is when the viewer numbers skyrocket, especially when they extend their coverage (as they always do!). I know I sat glued to the TV watching sliding cars, traffic jams, steep streets with crashing vehicles, etc. At the same time, I doubt many folks remember who forecasted what. Only us bloggers would probably know that Mark was most likely the most accurate! I myself like to see who comes in first; Mark, PaulB, or Rob, but all I want in the final analysis is SNOW!

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      I LOVES me some sliding cars…

    • Mark says:

      Yes, the viewer ratings run north during a storm – IF workers are home and not stuck in traffic.

      But all stations split out those ratings.

      Stations can get a solid few days worth of ratings boost by hyping an upcoming event, and post-marketing hype by talking about how they predicted it “first”.

  23. geo says:

    Good old Don Clark who had current conditons from the state capitol

  24. geo says:

    HERE WE GO AGAIN!

  25. CHECK OUT THE 18 G.F.S IT”S BACK. (COLD AIR) I THINK WE WILL GET COLD AND SNOW THE MODALS HAVE JUST BEEN HINTING AT IT TOO MUCH FOR IT TO GO BUST.

  26. alohabb says:

    Man 54 feels warm!

    • Ron says:

      This is the second time the 18GFS has done this. I’m not sure its a very accurate model. It keeps going against all the others. Will have to wait and see. I’m sure hoping for cold and snow but the reality is that the 18GFS is probably the least accurate.

  27. WEATHERDAN says:

    The point of my entry earlier today was not that I didn’t think the cold was coming. In fact I still do think the odds are with us for a big cool down starting Wednesday and going on for several days. My point was that from run to run the models usually vary so much it’s laughable. Remember I stated that today’s sorrow may be tomorrow’s elation. Before every big weather event around here the model runs change so much over such a short period of time. If 3 consecutive runs hint at a change then I pay attention, until then not. NCEP is still calling for a big cold snap for us from January 13-17. Even GFS has a lot of cold air pouring over us albeit for a shorter period of time. But then just a day or two ago they took away the Arctic blast completely. Yet some do pin their hopes on just one model run. I don’t. But I will note a particular forecast once in a great while. Even if that forecast fails to come to fruition. Still hoping for snow. As for why some stations go with a snow forecast before others, I believe the answer is this. There are two kinds of on the air weather people. The Parrots. They will repeat what the NWS forecasts word for word. And the forecasters. They look at the NWS but also at other sources as well. Then they forecast what they believe the weather will do. Brian MsKimmons over at channel six did a gutsy thing predicting the low level snow for Western Oregon. Even today some alleged forecasters in Portland are still going for as high as 45 for Friday and Saturday. Give credit to those who are willing to stick their neck out.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Agreed. It’s like The Birds, with all the Parrots around. It isn’t hard to spot the forecasters though, (like our fearless leader, Mark) they’re a rare breed.

    • runrain says:

      Biggest Parrot of all time was Don Clark on Ch. 8 back in the 70’s-80’s. anyone else old like me and remember him?

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      No one else is old like you – you’re uniquely old…

      …just like everyone else.

  28. Marcus says:

    Can anybody tell me why certain news stations put snowflakes on the seven-day forecast prematurely is it to boost ratings?

    • Mark says:

      Absolutely.

      If affiliate XYZ says “Snow” even a few hours ahead of another station, they can market the heck out of that later:

      “When Winter Monster 2012 hit Portland with a trace of snow for 15 minutes, We Were First To Tell You It Was Coming! Bla, bla, bla…”

      If they get it wrong and nothing happens weather-wise? Who cares or remembers? No one but a scant few (like us) remember or keep score, and we mostly rubber neck back the next time they declare “Blizzard 2013″ is coming all over again.

      Also, if we get a few inches of snow and it makes an impact, but the local media didn’t predict it and hype it, have you ever noticed they hardly report on it ever have taken place?

      Why?

      Because the ratings come in the days BEFORE the storm, not after. Everyone tunes into hear what’s going to happen! After? Nope, not so much.

      This gives you a glimpse of how the media follows the narrative they create, not so much follow and report on what IS or IS NOT news, but follow their storyline… Not always, but they do this a lot. And the winter weather around here – unfortunately – is something they exploit.

      However, sometimes the media will really push a weather event, and it fizzles out to a minor deal. But the news reports “Winter Blizzard 2012!” or something like that.

      It’s all about ratings, and when they can get them. The poor weathermen/women get stuck in the middle with the political pressure on them to push the hype or ignore what happened.

      That’s the one area of their job I would NOT care to deal with.

      Lastly, here is a personal example:

      Several years ago, many flights where held up in Atlanta due to some event or TSA check, etc… So the local news says “That’s a story!” But they don’t stop there. No no. They want to make it a “local” story, and promote that to how it really caused problems at PDX too! Get those ratings up babeee!!!

      My Mother and Father-in-law got caught in the delay. It cost them two-hours in Atlanta…

      My wife and my Mother-in-Law were interviewed about it, and how did it follow the narrative vs reality? Simple.

      A. The big event took place in Atlanta causing flight “nightmares” everywhere, including at PDX.
      B. We interviewed these people “We are exhausted, but glad to be home”
      C. Reporter “It’s been quite an ordeal out here. Reporting live I’m, bla, bla, bla…”

      Why was it an ordeal for my Mother and Father-in-law? They’d been traveling all the way from a small town in Brazil, back to Sao Paulo, then to Miami and over to Atlanta, and finally back to Portland. The two-hour delay meant NOTHING to them, it was their entire trip back to Portland that was exhausting. Delay in ATL? Ha! That’s a rest!!!

      But that’s not how the local affiliate can build a marketing narrative to get people to watch their station that night. So first there’s this big event, and people coming back to Portland were stuck in the nightmare! “That’s what we advertise in the evening promo’s now go make the story for for tonights broadcast!”

      That’s how it works people. And now you know.

    • runrain says:

      I guess people just LOVE money! :)

    • Mark says:

      That’s their – and mine (and probably your job too) to make money for yourself, at the company you work at. Absolutely.

  29. alohabb says:

    I always tell my kids if you really want snow that bad, lets just go to the mountain. A benefit if living on Portland.

  30. Longview - 400 ft says:

    I am one who reads bloggers opinions and whatever facts are thrown out that tickle my weather curiosity. I love to model watch for several reasons; be prepared in case something bad can happen within my local neighborhood, warn those who do not pay any attention to the weather, and finally enjoy with the rest of you the potential for any snow that comes our way or exciting weather of any sort.

    Yes, I do get disappointed when models say snow and there is no snow, but that is same as being a Seahawk fan when they have a chance to play in the post season and possible trip to the superbowl. For both the weather and Seahawks, some years are great and some years one occupies one’s time with something else.

    In April of 2008, the 3rd weekend, I received 5 inches of snow. One never knows what winds may bring our way unless, of course, one lives in Milwaukee Oregon.

    Go snow and the Seattle Seahawks!!!!!!

  31. So you’re saying, 50% chance of snow. Its either gonna snow or it isn’t. 50/50. Man you have an easy job. ;)

  32. Ben T says:

    Forecast: There may/or may not be an Arctic blast or just simply a winter storm coming. There could be a chance that it doesn’t snow, there also is a chance that it will snow. Precipitation may come or it may not come along with precipitation ranging from 0-12 inches. What we do know is that no precipitation will contain cats or dogs, meatballs, Rob’s pizza, ice cream, or Hawaiian punch flavored rain. It definitely is going to be weather-filled. There will be either clouds, clear skies, fog, snow or rain. Prepare yourself accordingly!

  33. Ben T says:

    Let it blast!

  34. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Snowfall rates since 2000 have really dropped off sharply in PDX: http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/PastWX_files/2010_2_2_PDX_DecadalSnowfallUpdate.html

    • But not as bad as the 80s and 90s.

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      Nothing’s as bad as the 80’s…

    • W7ENK says:

      So according to these stats, if you extrapolate to where we are now in the current decade using data over the last 4 years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013), we’re WAAAAY behind the ball for snowfall.

      Using up-to-date snowfall values for PDX from NWS beginning January 2010, PDX has seen 7.4″ in the first 4 years of this decade, (ALL of which has melted away – conservatively – within 12 hours of onset, by the way). Based on that, that’s an average of only 1.85″ per year so far. Now, multiply this through the end of December 2019, and that gives PDX snowfall of only 18.5″ by the end of this decade, a little over 1/3 that of the decade previous. So, we either have some really good make-up years in our future, or we buck the 30 year trend of increase by blowing it big-time with a massive deficit.

      I think we have some really good snowfalls in our future, just maybe not this year, and perhaps not next year, either.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oops! Those numbers are off, actually. I accidentally included the 2.5″ from December 2009, which actually falls in the previous decade. :oops:

      4.9″ since January 2010.

      1.225″ annual average.

      12.25″ by the end of December 2019.

      Barely a quarter of the previous decade.

      My bad.

    • 80’s had 6/10 years with 3+ inches snow
      90’s had 4/10 years with 3+ inches of snow
      2000’s had 3/10 years with 3+ inches of snow
      So the 80’s may of averaged less snow but almost every year in the 80’s had decent snowfall. The 2000’s had 6 years with 1 inch or less of snow. There’s obviously more years in the 2000’s that almost recorded no snow.

  35. Traci says:

    What do I win? I’ll take some snow please :-)i

  36. Momto4 says:

    Why did no one mention the somewhat big winds that gusted all night long out here in Tigard?? It was mire blustery last night than the previously forecasted “windstorms!”

    • W7ENK says:

      Really? My winds this morning were only S-SW 5-8 G(maybe)15. You must be up on a hill with a view to the South??

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      Momto4,

      Same here – plenty of wind and rain – especially wind. Even though I’m at 1000′ the wind has to come from just the right direction (ie, ~SSW) to really hit the house. It did that last night, for sure.

  37. HVmike says:

    So Winter is over……?

  38. W7ENK says:

    Sounds about right… Possibilities pushed out to day 10, such is the norm.

    In the mean time, I have a hunch that any remaining moisture after the front pushes through on Wednesday will be eaten up by the Coast Range. That happens ALL, THE, TIME! in these scenarios, and we’re just left here in PDX with a few spotty areas of snowflakes blowing around under partly starry skies, mostly out on the West side before they completely peter out.

    Brief, transitory cold spell behind the front, and then what, the dreaded fogversion? Wouldn’t that be just grand! :-?

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Hi Erik

      The worst case scenario is that we could get really into a northerly flow and ALL the moisture could head for no better than Medford at best and ALL points further south. I’ll hold my breath a bit here that there is something still in the cards for this weekend as NWS Seattle is saying this morning but right now in their latest discussion they have lifted the snow level up a bit for that period. I believe they are staying on the conservative side for now.

      I agree with Mark, winter is NOT over. ;)

    • Mark says:

      Yup, the northern coast range can gobble up a lot of moisture, leaving us in almost a rain shadow situation. Cloudy, to partly cloudy with little falling from the skies. We’ll see…

  39. WEATHERDAN says:

    I am beginning to believe that these models are really a very lousy predictor of the actual weather we get. Last night the models showed the ridge off the coast. Now it shows it close by. Who knows. tomorrow the models may show a big Arctic blast again. The blog will likely be filled with the disappointed ones who are upset with the lack of snow. But with the way the models flip flop today’s sorrow may well be tomorrows elation.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Or, this morning’s sorrow may well be this afternoon’s elation! Ride em cowboy!

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Watch the trends of the models Dan and NOT just one run, I am sure Mark will agree with me on that idea, I learned to watch trends a lot better when I went through avalanche training on Mount Rainier with a coworker I learned from who has been doing weather observations and snow pit analysis for 20 plus years for the National Park Service. I really believe we will be turning cooler based on my 43 years of observing experience but just how cool remains to be seen, :)

    • David B. says:

      It depends. Sometimes the models work very well. It tends to happen when they all agree with other. The models were all agreeing about a major, long-lasting arctic blast at least a week ahead of time in 2008.

      Right now, there is a LOT of agreement that there WILL NOT be an arctic blast this week. Add that to the general rarity of such conditions here, and I am very confident that there will indeed be no arctic blast this week.

  40. Greg Carstens says:

    Mark, the latest from NWS Seattle this morning…

    They basically noted in the long term portion of the later morning AFD that this next weekend could have a system driving down the coast but they said at this time it appears that snow levels will be in the 1,000 to 2,000 foot range. Personally, I feel they are being on the conservative side but then again I do not blame them as there has been a history of hard to forecast snow events around here in Washington. After watching the weather for 43 years now and gauging from my own experience around here I think the door remains a bit cracked open at least. Perhaps even less so for the Portland area as well but I think the picture may as many say, become more clear after anything that might happen here in Tacoma in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. The one thing that is certain as I watch this is that I will not put all my stock options into the GFS when I am looking ahead on either a BIG EVENT or a non event. :)

  41. Mike in HV says:

    So winter is over ………..?

  42. David B. says:

    So, no arctic blast in the next 10 days, but after about the 17th it looks like things are so much all over the map that we really have no idea what things are going to be like.

    • Greg Carstens says:

      David, as I mentioned to Mark here…

      I will not put all my stock in the GFS model. I tend to favor the ECMWF and Canadian myself along with the UW MM5 NAM which has good terrain modeling over the GFS for shorter term analysis. Things should be “interesting” after about Wednesday around the PNW.

    • David B. says:

      They may be “interesting” but there ABSOLUTELY NO model consensus for an arctic blast this week. At best we will get sloppy wet snow down to sea level that starts melting as soon as the “event” is over.

      NONE of the models are CONSISTENTLY forecasting an arctic blast this week.

      10 and more days out, who knows? I still suspect there will be something fairly major in the latter half of this month, for what its worth.

  43. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    48 here with 0.44″ of rain. Warmest and wettest so far this month. Maybe this (my 3rd year in BG) is the year I finally hit 60 in January???

    • Greg Carstens says:

      I have blowing light rain up here today. It is nasty for sure. The temp is 48 here as well so it sounds like the latest front is pretty uniform. I measured 0.31 inches in the CoCoRaHS gauge this morning and the automated gauge (as of 11:27 AM) shows 0.33 inches. Winds 15 to 25 mph from the southwest here as well.

  44. Traci says:

    Thanks Mark, although I was hoping for better news :-(

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