10:30pm Update…
It’s the first widespread ice event of winter in the Gorge…It’s well frozen out there and we have heard of many accidents in the west end on I-84. Very icy in the hills around Washougal and Corbett too for the first time this winter. Stay away from the west end of the Gorge through late tomorrow morning if you don’t need to be there.
Anemometers are winding down to zero quickly at Biddle Butte and Corbett as ice accumulates, slows down, and then eventually stops the moving cups . You can see the sudden drop in wind speed on the graph above at Corbett. It’ll be calm within the hour there. Vista House is still blowing hard, maybe because it’s on the south side of the building and misses more of the blowing rain.
Temperatures have cooled down to 32 degrees in Troutdale so definitely some ice on objects and trees there. After MANY years of watching freezing rain events, I’ve noticed it needs to be down around 30-31 before roads ice up, even a a bit lower during the day. So I doubt any roads will ice up in Troutdale and Gresham since temperatures have bottomed out. You can see that on the graph above as well (the red part).
This is really just a bunch of showers in westerly flow bunching up against the Cascades. Because of that, Hood River has seen nothing more than flurries, The Dalles totally dry. And looking at the radar, I don’t have high hopes for seeing much else.
Okay, that’s it for the night. If you want to head east on I-84, I’d wait until the 2nd half of day, giving ODOT crews a chance to get the road surface in good shape.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
THE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR SEA LEVEL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD FOR A RISK OF SNOW ON THE LOWLANDS. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. By next week we may have snow in the lowlands.
I’m guessing the sun on the south wall did the trick and melted the ice. The sensor is back up and running!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off
Up there today there was a lot ice coming off of the trees in the wind.
5 PM
TTD-DLS now -7.4mb has really increased the past 2 hours and should increase quite a bit further. My forecast of -8mb or so may be too weak.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS
will be*
=========================================
4:12 PM Update
Call me crazy(No, really go ahead) but with this next weather system let’s not completely rule out some type of frozen precip especially in the Gorge, east of I-205 and close to the Gorge outflow. The cold, breezy east winds have come back and the Gorge hasn’t been scoured out. WRF shows they are to increase overnight and in my opinion will peak perhaps up to -8mb(or stronger). Looking at observations across the Columbia Basin shows they too haven’t with temps running from 27-33F(roughly)
Also, Upper Air Analysis shows a -3c to -5c 925mb cold pool is still in place.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb.gif?1357344119735
Trends/Forecast mode is showing that cold pool is starting to works its way back towards the eastern Gorge.
-4 hour
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_13010420.gif
Let’s just wait and see how much the cold layer thickens up over the next 18-24 hours and how much of that is pulled through the Gorge. Keep an eye on Upper Air Analysis and Tower Temps.
When you have a cold pool that has not been scoured, is trying to regenerate, snow cover still over the east side, and persistent east winds you rule nothing out overlooking the potential for overrunning situations as it doesn’t take much for a surprise to sneak up on us this time of year.
Excellent analysis keep us posted thanks Rob:)
Succinct, accessible and frequently dead-on.
Keep the faith!
From the NWS. Fascinating.
.LONG TERM…MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY…RATHER MILD CONDITIONS
START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
EAST PACIFIC…BRIEFLY ALLOWING FREEZING AND SNOW LEVELS TO RISE
ABOVE PASS LEVEL INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT…A SYSTEM SETS UP
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL HUG THE BC COASTLINE AS IT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR…LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR THE VALLEY
FLOOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOST RECENT GFS
MODEL RUN IS MUCH COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS…
OTHERWISE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. /27
Interesting……
If this trend continues, watch for the local forecasts to hedge on any snow possibilities until at least Monday night/Tuesday AM.
Of course, as Mark N. can attest to, the News Directors are eager to advertise “When the storm hit, you heard it here – First! Live! Local!”
When snow comes to the lowlands, it’s not only interesting to see what kind of winter event takes place, it can be quite fun to watch which network affiliate declares “Snow Storm 2013! first…
At least Mark has a decently sized blog here, which allows him to reach out to thousands and say “It wasn’t me! I told you guys on this blog it probably wouldn’t take place, but it was management that made me do it!”
I agree with you in part our weather changes constantly but the models have showed colder air on the 8th,9th and 10th since last Sunday.Now me personally I like to be optimistic when I see consistency in the models because it makes it that much better if in fact it does happen, and for me model riding is fun,it’s shall I say “suspenseful”:) I love snow as well:) I appreciate your knowledge and insight!
And for what it’s worth the afternoon Portland
NOAA AFD “Long Term” paragraph is pretty
thrilling. We shall see said the flea.
I like it we will see:)
Too bad Mark’s subsequent post was a buzz kill.
Still, we’ll just have to see.
Peace out.
A little wisdom for those of you less familiar, and who seem content to hang on every model run as if it were Gospel…
I’ve found that my ability to get excited about these things — this impending arctic cold and snow — has dwindled considerably every year since 2008, to a point now where, sure it looks great at day 10, but experience has shown time and again over the last 4+ years that this means virtually nothing down the line, ever, at all, even when it moves in from day 10, day 8, day 5, 72 hours out, 60 hours out, even 12 hours out… inevitably, things change just the tiniest little bit at the last minute, and PDX gets the shaft.
Now don’t get me wrong, December 2008 was truly amazing, and we were all really spoiled by that, so I’m not necessarily asking for a repeat. All I’m looking for is at least 3 inches of snow, on the ground without melting away, for a minimum of 24 hours. That’s all is needed for it to count as a genuine “significant” snow event. Used to happen here almost every winter when I was a kid, it’s really not all that hard to achieve, but yet it’s been 4 years now, and we’re still waiting for even that paltry amount…
Since 2008:
2009, we got the epic cold at the beginning of December, but absolutely ZERO moisture. What a waste of premium arctic air! Then it snowed for less than 6 hours on 12/29, which eff’d up traffic unlike anything ever seen before in this city, but before one could really get home to enjoy it, it warmed up and melted away. Technically, doesn’t count.
2010, there was the teensiest little salting of graupel with the passage of an arctic front the evening before Thanksgiving, but despite having been pouring rain all day long prior to FROPA, precip suddenly and abruptly ended and the moisture on the ground mysteriously evaporated in the dry air behind the front before it could freeze up, so that was good for nothing, didn’t count.
2011, what started out initially looking like a 2008 redux with “EPIC COLD AND SNOW!!!” 10 days out kept getting pushed and pushed and pushed back for almost 2 weeks before it finally broke loose and began moving in. All the way until 60 hours out it looked epic, but when it finally came to pass on Jan 11th, all we got was a wimpy little ice storm everywhere but Milwaukie, literally. Maybe 2-3 hours of ice for all other areas in PDX metro. Good for nothing, didn’t count.
February 2011, another “EPIC COLD AND SNOW!!!” 10 days out that kept getting pushed and pushed and pushed back, again for almost 2 weeks before it finally broke loose and began moving in. And again, all the way until 60 hours out it looked epic, but when it came to pass on the 24th, I literally had a dusting of snow in the trees down to within about 10 feet of the ground, but nothing on the ground. Again, good for nothing, didn’t count.
January 2012, PDX missed 12-18 inches of snow by less than 20 miles, literally. Three feet of snow was only 100 miles to our North in Olympia! My coworker in Scappoose had 18 inches of snow on her car, meanwhile Downtown Portland had virtually nothing – a distance of only 19 miles. In Milwaukie, I saw a few hours of sloppy wet snow overnight that changed to rain and melted away by 6am. Good for nothing, didn’t count.
March 2012, cold showers and non-stick snowflakes, an inch or so after midnight, but again just a few hours of sloppy wet snow overnight that changed to rain and melted away by 6am. Good for nothing, didn’t count.
So, here we are yet again, staring down the models as they show another round of “EPIC COLD AND SNOW!!!” 10 days out, that keeps getting pushed and pushed and pushed back yet again for about a week now… as a lover of snowy, wintry weather, can you see why I’m not excited? 4 years is a long time to wait, anticipating something we used to get just about every winter when I was growing up. These last four winters have been really, REALLY lame!
That’s why my motto is: I’ll believe it when I see it.
It’s a hard lesson to learn, but it’s not worth getting emotionally invested in the models, because far more often than not, it will only lead to heartbreak.
I’m not complaining, just telling the story as it is (was), and hoping someone will learn something from my experience over these last 4 years — they’ve been rough for someone who loves snow like I do!
Now, let’s get finally get some snow that counts, shall we?
One of the best posts I have read here. Very well said and I couldn’t agree with you more. It is exciting to model ride, but from following this blog for the last few years, it seems like every single day there are comments about something looking promising 10 days out, and well does it happen? Hardly ever!
I feel the same way when you say this:
“All I’m looking for is at least 3 inches of snow, on the ground without melting away, for a minimum of 24 hours. That’s all is needed for it to count as a genuine “significant” snow event.”
Above is PDX snow. Believe me, I get excited like the rest of you and stay up late in anticipation, but I have learned that it is ok to be disappointed 9 out of 10 times.
I dont think i will ever need to use those traction tires i put on my car!
I haven’t bothered putting my winter tires on my car yet, and I probably won’t. Anymore, I do so little driving, there’s really no need. I let TriMet take me to and from work, I can walk to the store in 5 minutes, where else would I need to go if it snows? I’ll be out playing in it every chance I get anyway, I don’t need my car for that!
Hence my earlier joke about how you keep a PNW weather geek in suspense.
And thanks for the kudos, O-foto!
I’ll try to post later, but the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all indicate ridging developing very near or over the coastline again after the cool trough next Wednesday-Friday. For now I don’t see anything that screams arctic blast in our future. Wait on those snow tires!
Great post Erik.
The models are like strippers: fun to watch, something of a tease, but don’t ever trust them.
I’ve had many feet of snow all but one of those winters. You should move out of the Milwaukie dome to the hills above Scappoose. We get many days of snow (I still have snow on the ground from Monday), can free range our chickens, shoot our guns whenever, and have big bonfires when the Seasonal Disorder kicks in.
Ahh, that all sounds so wonderful!!
If I could afford it, I’d move up in elevation and away from the city in a heartbeat! If I wasn’t tied to downtown Portland for my job, I’d move out to Central/Eastern Oregon. Either outside of Bend, or somewhere out past John Day, preferably near the Strawberry Range/Logan Valley — if I wanted to be picky! They get it all, and I love it out there! 
Lately, winter weather/models remind me of a song called “Reno.” Part of it goes:
“You know the lady’s a lot like Reno.
She ain’t got a heart and she don’t care when you’re down.
Just like the lights of the casino, she’ll pull you in and play with you awhile, but there ain’t no way to win, I know, she’s a lot like Reno.
Couldn’t roll me a seven if you gave me loaded dice.”
What’s your elevation there above Scappoose?
W7: “I’m not complaining…”
Yes, you are. You just used a bazillion words to try to obfuscate it. You may be fooling yourself, though. Remember, it’s the number of comments, not the interminable length of them.
You’re suffering from SAD and DDS (Dome Derangement Syndrome).
BTW, we get at least 2 “snow events” up here every year – usually more – maybe not by your “standards” but, still…
…when all is white, it’s an event.
Cheers!
Must you constantly find fault in everything I post?
Your name doesn’t happen to be Jesse, does it??
4chan much??? o_O
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
That looks like a modified arctic blast for eastern Washington, perhaps very cold and sets the stage for a strong cold pool perhaps much colder/deeper than our last one.
Not only are the gfs and euro ensembles and models coming into agreement for some sort of cold air and nw or nnw flow with a ridge nosing into Alaska and a deep trough over us but the Canadian also is showing this. Good agreement from most models now it’s the finer details and precip amounts and how low the snow goes etc. etc. I remember models in Dec. ’08 all agreed with more certainty but this is definitely a start.
I was checking out the 12z GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs and it looks like at the end of the runs the high block out in the eastern pacific tracks back to the north west which would give us a more northerly flow. I know it’s a ways out but kind of exciting:)
The Euro is indeed trending colder and close to something arctic. The cold air would be blasting through the Frasier River valley on this run.
Looks like snow levels as low as 1000′ around Jan 10 before precip shuts off (PDX 1000-500 thickness likely bottoms around 520…then another fake cold regime sets in…although it may not have quite as good offshore flow…more likely to see fog/low clouds up the willamette valley.
After Jan 13- hard to say but am not feeling impressed with chances of a true arctic blast…more likely will have highs 35-45 lows 18-30…still cooler than normal but not the whole arctic enchilada I would like to see…PDX will at least have abundant sunshine and yes lots of frost for everyone…perhaps the kind that “accumulates” in shady spots
I always love and appreciate your analysis as well as Rob’s, regardless of whether I agree or not.
Paul, sounds about right, but today’s 12z ECMWF is quite close to something arctic or at least modified.
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Starting to make one wonder if we ever WILL
generate the “big event” this year in the low
lands–or not. It would seem like the next
couple of weeks are going to be compelling
though. Just have to see if–in the end–they
can deliver the goods.
I agree Rob. The Euro is trending colder. Outside of urban heat bubbles, snow would be lower than 1000′
Euro has trended colder for next week but warmer in the long range.
My “Wunderful” forecast is snow tonite…tomorrow & tomorrow nite. Wonder if they are wishcasting nowadays
While it has cleared in some areas, it has suddenly fogged in here!
So “fake cold” = non-arctic cold, just our own special PNW gorge-style brew of cold. Got it. Thanks!
There is only one that can beat the gorge and that is the Fraser river valley! my true friend, for getting cold up here in the Puget sound.
‘But” is it possible for both to be going at the same time?
Absolutely possible for both to do their thing. December 2008
I really like it when they gang up on us!
Non arctic air, fake cold is caused from an inversion on the east side of our states and it gets suck thru the gorge. From what I understand its not as strong as the arctic air. Or as cold. That is a simplified version hope that helps:)
“Fake cold” is only a term used on this weather blog. It has no real definition. I think what most of them are talking about on here when they say that is that there really was no large frontal system to deliver cold to the entire region. Instead its being pumped thru the gorge from the eastside or that simply fold air is trapped in the valleys with an inversion. Meaning that it could be cold in PDX and valley but still rain with the warmer air overhead. I know there’s more to it bit dont feel like explaining more. That is pretty much what they’re talking about so I guess it still could be as cold as arctic air just warmer above or it being pumped thru the gorge without any true intrusion by an airmass. Hope that helps a little
Good points. The “fake cold” layer is usually
not very deep either (as compared to arctic
cold); therefore when precipitation arrives in
conjunction with “fake cold”, at best it is in
the form of sleet or freezing rain–not snow.
(Except in the Gorge where it is typically
sufficiently deep enough to support snow–but
sometimes, not even there–e.g. like a lot of
areas last night). These are funny concepts
though because who can tell the difference when
you are standing in 30′ still air temperatures
along with 40 mph wind gusts!? Cold is cold.
Fake cold is also when it might be 30-35, clear or foggy, frosty here in the valley and 40′s and even warmer in the higher elevations. Fake cold seldom gives us snow in most places in the valley but sometimes a little ZR. That’s my definition anyway.
Isn’t it also when we get a flow of arctic air but it swings out over the ocean as it comes down from the NW which modifies it a little?
I’m confused about what “fake cold” is. I must have missed that explanation somewhere. Can someone clue me in?
Locally grown cold air, as opposed to bitterly cold, freeze you in your tracks cold air, that comes down from the great white north!
Hmmm….I would think cold is cold. Fake cold to me would be sunshine and 90! :p
Come on 12z ECMWF arctic blast:)
Koin local 6 is saying cold with flurries next Thursday with a high of 40. Hopefully that temperature lowers, and we get an ARCTIC BLAST!
Not in the cards in that time frame. Some models are showing cold northwesterly flow aloft from run to run, basically one of those situations where it’s sometimes barely cold enough to get snow at sea level.
12z GFS is the coldest run yet… (Numbers from KTTD Extracted Data)
-Again sharp temp drop at both 850 mb and 925 mb from hours 114-120.
-850mb 2c to -5c
-925mb 3 to -1c
-As things dry out, temps aloft continue to fall highlighted by moderately strong northerly flow
-850mb temps:
– From 129-180 temps at -7c or below
– From 156-177 temps at -8c or below
– From 156-177 temps at -9c
-925mb temps
– From 129-204 temps at -2c or below
– From 141-192 temps at -3c or below
– From 159-192 temps at -4c or below
– From 162-177 temps at -5c
From there I believe fake cold (as mentioned by Rob) could be a possibility as both colder air entrenched west side and in the basin coupled with rapid upper level warming could produce a very sharp inversion. At any rate, I believe several days next week (Thu-Sat) will not get out of the 30′s. Below are images at 6 hour intervals from the WRF extended run showing the sharp cold front and ensuing trough…
***JANUARY WEATHER FREQUENCY CONTEST***
DEADLINE IS TONIGHT JAN 4th AT MIDNIGHT.
Fill out the below form to guess what the weather will be this month at Portland Airport.
http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/JAN2013/add.php
My guess is that in January, there will be weather frequently! Hahaah!
I forgot, we had a high yesterday of 35, east winds at 5-10 mph, and cloudy.
The o/night lo stayed at 35, and had light rain showers.
Outside of the gorge, in sandy, at 1,100 ft, it is partly sunny and 41 degs.
Partly sunny? How’d you get so lucky??
Its been mostly sunny here since New Years Day with a few hours of light clouds yesterday only. Kind of suprised to hear about rain in the Portland area.
Hmmm… from the Seattle forecast discussion:
.LONG TERM…STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NE PAC WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOIST/WESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN WA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FLOW MAY SHIFT TO MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN WA UNDER A COOL/WET SCENARIO WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS STILL UNCLEAR SO WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST YET.
I could take that!
No east wind at Crown Point right now!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off
In reality, I’m sure everything is coated in ice and the wind is still blowing rather strong.
It’s very frozen. I have 28 degrees and about 1/2″ of ice coats everything. It took me 1.5 hours to get home…including 1/2 hour sitting on the freeway with semi trucks.
Looks like JR and I are headed out there later today. He has studs, but hoping the roads clear off some anyway.
34 and rain and drizzle…wow. I was really enjoying the sunshine.
Looks like we’re back in the “cold rain” again starting tomorrow.
Snow from Mondays mini storm still on the ground here in north salmon creek. But since last night didn’t get below freezing a lot of melting took place so there isn’t much of anything now. Surprising it lasted this long!
Rick,
I drove up there that day after I read Mark’s post. What a beautiful area!!!! Interesting that if you drove about 1-2 miles down toward the freeway or Wendy’s you were out of the sticking snow. You guys really scored up in that neighborhood!
I want somma these mammary, no, momma, no, well whatever clouds over the Land of Gravelly Plains!
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Turbulent-mammatus-clouds-boil-over-Seattle-185604892.html
Mammoomies! ^_^
Timer, in western Washington county is a solid sheet of ice, you should warn people that need to travel to work!
3:35 AM Update
I just looked at the 500mb/1000-500mb Thickness maps and noticed 6z GFS was a bit colder with the trough mid-late week. Ridge is a notch further offshore and trough digs a bit more sharply to the south.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht.gif
Thickness drops to 518, 850mb -10c, but we run out of moisture.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_150_1000_500_thick.gif
There could be some snow showers just about everywhere at all elevations Thursday Night. We may see high temps 34-38 F Thursday – Saturday.
I also get a hunch we may be about to move right back into another regime of “fake cold” with an even stronger/deeper cold pool over the Columbia Basin and the likelihood of a big east wind/downslope wind event with rising heights and warmer temps aloft/inversion aiding in that. Something to keep an eye on…
Hahaah! Let’s do it again!
Wash, rinse, repeat…
So, would a stronger/deeper cold pool eastside mean stronger wind and colder temperatures pushing through the Gorge into PDX? Possibly a setup for more widespread freezing rain with the next overrunning event (whenever that may be), instead of another near-miss like today… mayhaps?
Still looking like snow on 9th or 10th?
I think we’ll get arctic air somewhere around that time. But I guess having precipitation is the problem.
Actually, it’s looking more like the 14th or 15th at this point, according to last night’s 00z output. Borderline cold (but just not quite cold enough) rain with low elevation snow, probably about 500-1000 feet from about the 10th to the 14th, then it dries out with cold overnight lows, moderate daytime highs, maybe an overrunning system to transition back out at end of run, the 19th?
http://i50.tinypic.com/idw178.jpg
Not exactly “epic”.
“Actually, it’s looking more like the 14th or 15th at this point…”
Q: How do you keep a PNW weather geek in suspense?
A: I’ll tell you in about ten days.
Haha! Yup, pretty much!
1/3/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:57 at BANDON( 79 ft)
Low: 48 at CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & Rome(4049 ft)
Coldest:
High:8 at Rome(4049 ft)
Low: -16 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
Cresent (US 97 M (33/-12 ) (4455 ft )
Mark called it, Biddle Butte’s anemometer slowing due to ice accumulation. Somehow it is still reading 4mph. And here I was excited thinking wind finally dropped below 20mph for my location.
PDX\DLS now at -5.7mb down from a peak of at least -11mb.
GOLU a few minutes ago, wind is still roughly around 30mph. Gusts are no longer shaking the house. Constant rain with about a quarter inch of ice buildup.
Beware of ice sheets sliding off metal roofs!
Currently 24F
you are so lucky Dean
The new 00z ECMWF is pretty nice. I like the overall trend of the ECMWF today.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/PNM_panel.gif
Sounds like chilly showers late next week according to mark! I guess it is still a ways out but I want a arctic blast:)
Freezing rain continues and has paralyzed travel in rural Washougal, just into Skamania County. Forecast was right on. Temperature up to 30 degrees but it is really treacherous outside with accumulating ice after two days of damaging winds; we are generally weather fans (snow, cold) but this severe winds, freezing rain, and power outage stuff is not good…
Still just misty rain near Gresham High.
Freezing rain appears to have fallen intermittently in Gresham since 9 PM. I was walking down Powell about an hour ago and got caught in it.
I wonder if they might close I-84 east of Troutdale….
Cascade Locks cam looks very BAD
http://www.tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/CascadeLocksEB_pid619.jpg?1357252510
I’m glad we’re not getting freezing rain here.
Look at the 1400-1500 foot level, temps in the low 40s….
I prefer it to the usual cold rain.