Merry Christmas; Some Days Off

junk

I had yesterday off and don’t work again until Christmas Day; no postings until then unless a hurricane hits.

I don’t see any real exciting weather in the next week, so enjoy the holiday!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

503 Responses to Merry Christmas; Some Days Off

  1. JJ97222 says:

    All rain under the dome in Milwaukie very cold though, wood stove cranking 85 in the family room staying warm watching movies on another very damp perfect for moss day.

    Merry Chistmas to all!

  2. W7ENK says:

    Well, things aren’t shaping up very well at all for those of us in the PDX area who want a white Christmas. After last evening’s random and unexpected spat of sloppy wet snowflakes, my temperature bounced back up to 41 degrees where it has sat — within only a half a degree of change — from 6:30 last evening until 6:20 this morning.

    No overnight clearing. No radiational cooling. No drying of the already saturated atmosphere at the surface, and the airmass on the east side of the mountains/Columbia Basin appears just as stagnant.

    I’m dreaming of a white Christmas, but there’s less than a 1% chance any given year at PDX, so green brown and wet is the unfortunate status quo, and at this point, with the best case scenario being marginal at best for a few wet flakes in the air, status quo will be the case again this year.

    Merry Christmas everyone, I’ll be back again in a couple of days… unless by some Christmas miracle we wake up to a nice blanket of snow! :)

  3. Looking at the -4hr -2hr Trends/Forecast on Mesoanalysis shows the colder 925/850mb temps in British Columbia, Alberta, Idaho, and western Montana are trying their hardest to advance southwest into eastern Washington. That Arctic front is really wanting to aggressively spill into the area, but the weak low is holding it up. Annoying…

  4. ==================================
    7:48 AM Update
    12z MM5-NAM Analysis
    Nothing much to write home about. If there is any chance for a mix or brief wet snow it appears to be between 4 – 10 AM where moisture arrives as east wind is increasing and 925-950mb temps are near/below 0c with 850mb temps also near -2c.

    The 925mb/ SLP model, Cross Section show that slight potential.
    7:00 AM Christmas
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122412.naminit/images_d2/slp.27.0000.gif
    3 Hour Precip
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122412.naminit/images_d2/or_pcp3.27.0000.gif
    Cross Section
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/kpdx.th.gif

    The real story is as my 1:56 AM Update illustrated the lack of cold air over the Columbia Basin. It really just doesn’t get cold enough east side. Even though PDX metro is in easterly surface flow until around 2 PM where southerlies slowly take over.

    850mb map shows no real cold pool at all over the Columbia Basin with more or less some colder temps banked up against the east slope of the Washington Cascades.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122412.naminit/images_d2/850t.27.0000.gif

    It’s enough to pull chilly air down the Gorge and lower temps briefly, but it’s a very shallow layer of cold air. Sorry for those hoping for a White Christmas unless the models are vastly underestimating the Gorge, Snow cover in the Gorge as Christmas Morning wears on, and cold east winds blowing over that Snowy/Frozen Gorge. I hope the WRF offers a glimmer of hope, but not truly expecting it.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Don’t know why this won’t post. I’ll try again.
    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=pqr

  6. ===================================
    3:59 AM Update
    It sure looks like to me this low over Spokane is trying to move into western Montana now. I have ran several loops and I do not see any stalling of the low presently rather consistent eastward movement. The low suppresses the arctic air keeping it to the north. Once it dissipates the circulation dies, thus the cold air can start spilling westward… I sure hope that is before Noon today.

    IR Loop (3 hour Loop)
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12
    Main circulation is definitely exiting eastern Washington and appears to be just south of the Sandpoint/Coeur D’alene Idaho area edging into far western Montana. IF I am correct this would be well ahead of model projections and might draw colder air sooner into eastern Washington, then into the Columbia Basin, and eventually into the Gorge. This development isn’t a certainty yet as I probably need 2-3 more hours to gauge the lows progress and position before I’d know that. Just something I’m watching anyhow.

  7. 6z GFS is way better than the NAM. Colder, east wind and 850mb temps remain below 0c until early Wednesday Morning. BUT is it cold enough? Hmmm….

  8. ==================================
    1:56 AM Update
    Alright, I have been carefully and thoroughly analyzing Mesoanalysis looking for anything worth mentioning, anything that seems promising or hopeful. I have definitely found at least one thing stands out. The Arctic front is currently draped across southern British Columbia eastward into Alberta, then southeastward right along the Continental divide with the coldest air mass residing in southeast British Columbia, Alberta, and sliding south down into northern Montana. In these areas 925mb temps are -25c and 850mb -24c, so yeah, kind of chilly. At first glance of these maps you see nothing of interest, but ah hah! you must dig deeper. Looking at the -4hr / -2hr Trends/Forecast showing a very telling detail. The Arctic front presently is trying very hard to move southwest into the Idaho panhandle and Northeast Washington. In fact, I can see the Arctic front is indeed moving southwest slowly as the colder 925/850mb temps are as well. I did mention slowly, right? Yeah, the only thing hanging up the Arctic front from making a more swiftly progress is the large, broad scale, weakening 1006mb low extending from the Spokane area eastward to western Montana. Although there is some cooling at 925/850mb now occurring over the upper Columbia Basin and eastern Washington, it is being delayed and slowed from flooding westward more quickly.

    Spokane NWS AFD mentions good model agreement for this low overnight-Monday Morning to essentially stall in this area before filing and dissipating. If this low were not in this location the Arctic air mass would have already overtaken Spokane, Omak, and probably Ephrata down to Moses Lake. The sooner this low loses its identity and dissipates the faster that process begins. Unfortunately, I doubt there is upper level support or the 500mb pattern needed to truly draw the deepest cold air into eastern Washington. Keep an eye on Observations in North-Central & Northeastern Washington for any N-NE wind shift, lowering dewpoints, and falling temperatures. If the far western Gorge and PDX metro wants any chance at a White Christmas we simply are going to need a colder air mass into the Columbia Basin(Moses Lake to Pendleton) and into the eastern Gorge(The Dalles). Over the next 8-12 hours we need to see these developments or sorry guys(and gals, and furry woodland creatures too!) the air mass shown on models I just feel won’t cut the mustard not cold enough to give us anything more than a brief mix early Christmas Morning. We’ll have to see how 12z Models unfold later this Morning.

  9. 6z NAM is crappy…glad it’s the NAM though. don’t want the GFS to follow suit though…

  10. seahawks75 says:

    Hey guys any word on the 6z yet?

  11. bgb41 says:

    12/23/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:50 at Port Orford (US( 90 ft) & HEPP(311 ft) & CW9314 Florence(23 ft) & DW0069 Ferndale(840 ft)
    Low: 43 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:20 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 4 at UNITY DAM AND BU (3758 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    UNITY DAM AND BU (32/4 ) (3758 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.74″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)
    1.65″ at AGNESS2(247ft)
    1.40″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)

  12. 6z NAM begins in 30 minutes
    6z GFS in 2 hour 15 minutes
    Anyone staying up?

  13. *BoringOregon* says:

    lol here are what the weather people are saying, ohhh duhh ooo ahhh toto. I don’t know hahaha love it rod hill ??

  14. Snowing, sticking, temp 33.4 and falling

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Hahaah! I really like quick boughts of snow!

    National Weather Service Portland or
    830 PM PST sun Dec 23 2012

    Received reports earlier of snowfall down as low as 500 feet
    within the heavier band of precipitation that has now moved east of
    the area. However…snow levels are expected to remain rather low as the trough passes tonight…at around 1000 to 1500 feet.
    Therefore…expect heavier showers to pull the snow level down to the 500 feet level through the night for a quick bout of snow here and there. Additional snow accumulations at this level are expected to be light…generally an inch or less overnight.

  16. This looks potentially promising. Ephrata and Moses Lake both temp drop to 34 rain changed to snow. N wind 15mph http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?wfo=sew&map=otxsw&list=1&sort=name
    This would give a lot of weight to my earlier analysis and thought that cold air may spill south sooner. Would like to see N winds increasing by morning with lowered dewpoints. We’ll see….

  17. 4km Sounding(PDX) 4:00 AM Christmas http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122400/images_d3/kpdx.36.0000.snd.gif
    Close and east wind is really increasing, so not tending to buy the warm up advertised 6-11 AM.

  18. A few thoughts…
    1) Seahawks right now are a dangerous team and I’m not sure anyone wants to face them
    2) Blazers 5 game win streak snapped and still prove they have a long ways to go, especially on the road. Yucky game
    3) Snow is MUCH more enjoyable to watch fall than Rain
    4) I like to go off-topic at times

    Oh, WEATHER? Yeah, BACK TO WEATHER.
    A few things I saw on the WRF tonight….
    The low that had been forecast to slowly meander around Spokane now is further east towards western Montana.
    7:00 PM Monday
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122400/images_d2/slp.27.0000.gif

    10:00 PM Monday
    (12z) http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122312/images_d2/slp.42.0000.gif There’s the low I was mentioning milling about near/just east of Spokane. Compare to tonight’s 00z http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122400/images_d2/slp.30.0000.gif That same low has dissipated.

    WRF shows the low tonight is to be around Spokane by 1 AM.
    However, IR Loop shows its almost there already and seems a few hours faster than modeled…. The sooner we get that low to move off into Idaho/Montana and dissipate the better.

    In fact, Current 4z SPC Mesoanalysis analyzes that low to already be over SE Washington. IF that’s right it’s way ahead of schedule and colder air is going to move into the Columbia Basin maybe 12 hours sooner.. just my hunch.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1356323328263

    My forecast? I’m sure the WRF 4km Soundings/Cross section probably says too warm for snow, but it’s hard to ignore 925mb temps 0c or slightly colder and a strong east wind peak PDX-DLS look 9 to 11mb with snow covering the Gorge as Christmas morning wears on. It looks like cold air will be banked up against the Coast Range(Forest Grove Effect anyone?) Based on everything…. 1-3 ” of snow? then a few hours of ZR I fear(East of I-205)…. Or an ice storm again east of I-205 into Western Gorge. One thing in the back of my mind is there is a slight trend that started with the 18z earlier to develop the low further south and almost stall it west of Astoria-Ocean Shores… In other words, I have no idea. We really need more data. Tomorrow’s 12z MM5/WRF will be the final call.

    • What we REALLY need is good ol fashioned Arctic front to drop in and develop a low off the coast and pump vast quantities of snow over the entire west side for 24 hrs. Then a frigid cold H settles in and keeps us very cold and sunny for a week. After that, an over-running system from the west moves in and really dumps the snow on us (all the while the NWS incorrectly forecasts a change over to rain. But the low slides to our south leaving us with a record snow fall). :) Merry Christmas my fellow weather nerds! :) Merry Christmas!

    • SnowedIn - North Plains says:

      So could this be one of those hideous times when PDX east metro gets the goods along with Forest Grove, but North plains is left with bupkis?

    • Ya, Boydo that sounds great.. maybe in January.

      SnowedIn, it’s really still up in the air…. I can’t be confident yet not until 12z tomorrow….

    • lurkyloo says:

      Merry Christmas firehouse! Merry Christmas you old Savings and Loan!!! Merry Christmas Bedford Falls! Merry Christmas Boydo!!!

    • ocpaul says:

      Rob, what time for the 12Z ?

    • 7:30 AM for the NCEP model. Hi-res WRF 7:45 – 9 AM with 4km Soundings available 9:20 AM and Cross Section 9:30 AM.

  19. A few thoughts…
    1) Seahawks right now are a dangerous team and I’m not sure anyone wants to face them
    2) Blazers 5 game win streak snapped and still prove they have a long ways to go, especially on the road. Yucky game
    3) Snow is MUCH more enjoyable to watch fall than Rain
    4) I like to go off-topic at times

    Oh, WEATHER? Yeah, BACK TO WEATHER.
    A few things I saw on the WRF tonight….
    The low that had been forecast to slowly meander around Spokane now is further east towards western Montana.
    7:00 PM Monday
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122400/images_d2/slp.27.0000.gif

    10:00 PM Monday
    (12z) http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122312/images_d2/slp.42.0000.gif There’s the low I was mentioning milling about near/just east of Spokane. Compare to tonight’s 00z http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2012122400/images_d2/slp.30.0000.gif That same low has dissipated.

    WRF shows the low tonight is to be around Spokane by 1 AM.
    However, IR Loop shows its almost there already http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12 Low seems a few hours faster than modeled…. The sooner we get that low to move off into Idaho/Montana and dissipate the better.

    Current 4z SPC Mesoanalysis analyzes that low to already be over SE Washington. IF that’s right it’s way ahead of schedule and colder air is going to move into the Columbia Basin maybe 12 hours sooner.. just my hunch.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1356323328263

    My forecast? I’m sure the WRF 4km Soundings/Cross section probably says too warm for snow, but it’s hard to ignore 925mb temps 0c or slightly colder and a strong east wind peak PDX-DLS look 9 to 11mb with snow covering the Gorge as Christmas morning wears on. It looks like cold air will be banked up against the Coast Range(Forest Grove Effect anyone?) Based on everything…. 1-3 ” of snow? then a few hours of ZR I fear(East of I-205)…. Or an ice storm again east of I-205 into Western Gorge. One thing in the back of my mind is there is a slight trend that started with the 18z earlier to develop the low further south and almost stall it west of Astoria-Ocean Shores… In other words, I have no idea. We really need more data. Tomorrow’s 12z MM5/WRF will be the final call.

  20. Hal In Aims says:

    Stupid mobile devices……old guys should not be allowed to operate them…. sigh..

  21. Hal In Aims says:

    N

  22. Hal Johnson says:

    Change

  23. wwm says:

    been snowing since 2:00 and got heavier around 4:00, we have picked up about 3 inches so far. Absolutely beautiful.

    I a thrilled you guys all are seeing flakes, and the potential sounds good for Christmas!

    • IceCold says:

      Brag, brag, brag….. i.e. “I have snow! Too bad for you losers at lower elevations! :)

    • wwm says:

      no, not at all. I really do hope you all get the goods! I used to live in gresham and had so many “close calls” it was too many to count, used to drive me insane.

      I am hoping for all a 2008 style snowstorm in January with cold east winds for a week straight afterwords then a low that comes in just south of Portland with more snow and cold…one can dream right?

    • W7ENK says:

      I dream about that all winter long, every winter since the early ’80s. Sadly, I think I can count on one hand the number of times that dream has come true.

  24. Hal Johnson says:

    Enough snow in the dish to block the signal now……have installed the cd with the Christmas tunes…..

  25. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Two things:

    1. The latest NAM is much cooler. It also brings the low a bit further south. We should stay in offshore flow a bit longer. Less precip though it looks like?

    2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UeT0m-hpD_4

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