Slow Weather Pattern

December 6, 2012

The good news:  Another 6-12″ snow is likely in the Cascades by Saturday morning.  The bad news: I don’t see much action for the weather geeks (like me).  More good news:  For regular people the weather shouldn’t affect your life much over the next 7 days.

The general pattern for the next week will be an upper level ridge just offshore in the eastern Pacific.  It allows weather disturbances to plunge down the back side of it.  These will be quite weak.  The GFS is digging a trough a bit more strongly later Tuesday and Wednesday, the new 00z ECMWF not so much.  The ECMWF does have more disturbances following later next week.  None of these are cold enough to drop snow lower than 2,000-3,000′ on the ECMWF and 1,500′ on the GFS.  Not a whole lot of rain either.

I did notice the 00z GFS ensembles showed quite a few members a little cooler with that Wednesday trough:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Other than that, I’ve got nothing…real slow.  Remember, as I posted earlier this week, all it would take is a slight shift of the ridge farther to the west and we’d be in the cold or snow business here in the Pacific Northwest.  No models are showing that for now.

I’m headed to the Providence Festival of Trees in Seaside this weekend to emcee, so no postings again until Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


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